Let's estimate Z10 sales in Canada

**kfh227** · 02-05-2013, 09:46 PM

This should be a fun exercise. I do this because I am an investor and because analysts are too stupid to figure out crap like this in a matter of 30 minutes.

Keep this in mind though:
"It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong" - Warren Buffet

The bad thing is that I am trying to confirm my bias. I figure that 100,000 or so were sold based on the "several hundred thousand" sold in the UK. Canada has about half the population of the UK so I am guessing low 100,000s sold.

Now onto the guesstimate.
What I know. Rogers has a 35% market share in Canada. From people that were in stores, it sounds like stores had 50-150 units available for both first come/first served and pre-order. From reading, I think best guess is 80 though. Let's use that as a starting point.

There is one question left. How many stores are there?

Simple formula:
units sold = (rogersStores * sales)/market share
units sold = (rogersStores * 80)/0.35
units sold = rogersStores * 228 ~= stores * 230
or:
units sold = 230 * rogersStores

430 retail stores would land us at 100,000 sold. I think I saw this number on rogers web site:
http://www.rogers.com/web/Careers.po...l=C_WR&_page=5

So:
units sold = 230 * rogersStores = 230*450 = 103,500 units sold

So, how did I do?

Please provide feedback. For example, I don't know if any units were sent to people through the mail via pre-order. Let me know! Was my 80 per store count about right?

**BThunderW** · 02-05-2013, 10:00 PM

Meh. No one really knows. Lets just wait till March ER to be blown away, really looking forward to the surprise.

**Lendo78** · 02-05-2013, 10:05 PM

My guess is a lot.

**Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes** · 02-05-2013, 10:14 PM

The guy that had a q10 in my rogers line said he worked in the NOC. He was there about 8:45AM. He said he was at work BEFORE that time and there was already 10,000 activations. That is before opening times of most stores

**kfh227** · 02-05-2013, 10:15 PM

Originally Posted by BThunderW

Meh. No one really knows. Lets just wait till March ER to be blown away, really looking forward to the surprise.

<== value investor. It's how I roll. Value investing is giving one's self a competitive advantage over other investors. Exercises like this are what 99% of "investors" don't bother with. They only know what articles provide them. And not a single article has been written discussing this.

For now though, I think the UK and Canada alone have pushed sales to over 300,000 units. I'd guess 350,000.

**emstardeluxe** · 02-05-2013, 10:16 PM

At least you're trying to use math, instead of that NYT "uhh it's empty here in Rideau Mall..."

**Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes** · 02-05-2013, 10:19 PM

Originally Posted by emstardeluxe

At least you're trying to use math, instead of that NYT "uhh it's empty here in Rideau Mall..."

They are really trying too hard with that article

**Danimaloxo7** · 02-05-2013, 10:22 PM

All I know is I did my part, I bought two & I`m getting 1 more for Mom & Dad all on the Rogers family plan.

**Frosty_Power** · 02-05-2013, 10:30 PM

I know they could have sold a boat load more if they sold them contract free. I would have purchased a bunch(and put them on eBay), but still left with two. Couldn't buy any without a contract.

**Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes** · 02-05-2013, 10:32 PM

The best buy in Cambridge told me they only had THREE devices in today. Best buy Kitchener was 15.

**howarmat** · 02-05-2013, 10:33 PM

I am thinking that the average per store is alot lower than 80, more like 15-25

**ricocan** · 02-05-2013, 10:40 PM

What about an estimate for corporate deliveries, each of the major telcos would have a portion of their inventory dedicated to service corporate clients. This would be a difficult quantity to determine. Maybe there could be a poll asking who got supplied a Z10 by their company?

**howarmat** · 02-05-2013, 10:48 PM

corporate orders probably are small right now. they have to pilot the device and make sure it will work for them. Plus with BES10 just rolling out and such I would say it will be a little bit before we here big orders from company's getting placed

**kfh227** · 02-05-2013, 10:59 PM

Originally Posted by howarmat

I am thinking that the average per store is alot lower than 80, more like 15-25

If that's true, then BBRY sold more like 20,000. No wherenear 100,000. Yikes. That';s pathetic if accurate.

**Whitecaps** · 02-05-2013, 11:03 PM

Will many refund their Z10s because its too different as compared to previous BBs?

**emstardeluxe** · 02-05-2013, 11:05 PM

Are you using Rogers market share as a cellular provider? Are you only including Rogers branded stores? If so you would not be counting those that buy at Best Buy or Future Shop etc but activate through Rogers.

**Shanerredflag** · 02-05-2013, 11:42 PM

The Bell store I was at today said they were only given 18, all spoken for through preorders...but, there are at least six other places to buy one just in that small mall...with two Walmart and two other similar sized malls within five miles, which have all the same players in them too. Adds up fast.

**Sqoon** · 02-05-2013, 11:53 PM

50 is crazy high, most that I talked had less than twenty.
Stores get inventory every couple days so it might be fifty this month.

**joe.miller** · 02-05-2013, 11:57 PM

Originally Posted by howarmat

corporate orders probably are small right now. they have to pilot the device and make sure it will work for them. Plus with BES10 just rolling out and such I would say it will be a little bit before we here big orders from company's getting placed

Not sure about that. I've got a friend who is a partner at KPMG, and pretty much all the other partners are getting one. They were able to put in their orders before carrier availability on Jan31.

**W Hoa** · 02-06-2013, 12:21 AM

One...hundred.....uh.....thousand.....umm....million!

gold.jpg.....

**BBNation** · 02-06-2013, 12:42 AM

Originally Posted by BThunderW

Meh. No one really knows. Lets just wait till March ER to be blown away, really looking forward to the surprise.

Would March ER include units sold or shipped ? If shipped then it would be massive beat..if sold..1 mil by the end of feb 28 would be good enough and 5-6 mill BBOS. Even now BB sales over 6 million units per quarter so adding 1-2 million high margin bb10 would rock the stock..If all go well..it;s pay back time for the all abuse BB and we took for years..)))

**BBNation** · 02-06-2013, 12:45 AM

Let's not forget bit of US sales, many otherr retailers, over seas gifts, london drugs here in bC, coporatation who orders 100s..all big banks..oil companies...I must stop now

**kill_9** · 02-06-2013, 12:55 AM

BlackBerry will never reveal the actual number of BlackBerry Z10 devices sold to end-users. They always use couching terminology which means nothing at the end of the day. If first week sales are less than 100,000 units sold to end-users and/or organizations, there'll be some "splaining to do".

**kfh227** · 02-06-2013, 06:57 AM

Originally Posted by emstardeluxe

Are you using Rogers market share as a cellular provider? Are you only including Rogers branded stores? If so you would not be counting those that buy at Best Buy or Future Shop etc but activate through Rogers.

Good point. I was worried about things like this messing up my estimate. It's hard to put a weighting on how many best Buy and Wal-Mart and Future Shop sold.

**mikeo007** · 02-06-2013, 07:16 AM

Way to hard to even take a guess at this. You'll need to wait for some official reports.

Your math is assuming that rogers stores were selling out of the Z10. While I know for a fact that some stores did sell out, I also know for a fact that some stores didn't sell ANY Z10s yesterday.

As someone else said, you're also missing FutureShop, Best Buy, The Source, etc. in your estimates.