Let's estimate Z10 sales in Canada
This should be a fun exercise. I do this because I am an investor and because analysts are too stupid to figure out crap like this in a matter of 30 minutes.
Keep this in mind though:
"It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong" - Warren Buffet
The bad thing is that I am trying to confirm my bias. I figure that 100,000 or so were sold based on the "several hundred thousand" sold in the UK. Canada has about half the population of the UK so I am guessing low 100,000s sold.
Now onto the guesstimate.
What I know. Rogers has a 35% market share in Canada. From people that were in stores, it sounds like stores had 50-150 units available for both first come/first served and pre-order. From reading, I think best guess is 80 though. Let's use that as a starting point.
There is one question left. How many stores are there?
units sold = (rogersStores * sales)/market share
units sold = (rogersStores * 80)/0.35
units sold = rogersStores * 228 ~= stores * 230
units sold = 230 * rogersStores
430 retail stores would land us at 100,000 sold. I think I saw this number on rogers web site:
units sold = 230 * rogersStores = 230*450 = 103,500 units sold
So, how did I do?
Please provide feedback. For example, I don't know if any units were sent to people through the mail via pre-order. Let me know! Was my 80 per store count about right?
- 02-05-13, 10:14 PM #4
The guy that had a q10 in my rogers line said he worked in the NOC. He was there about 8:45AM. He said he was at work BEFORE that time and there was already 10,000 activations. That is before opening times of most stores
For now though, I think the UK and Canada alone have pushed sales to over 300,000 units. I'd guess 350,000.
- 02-05-13, 10:30 PM #9
I know they could have sold a boat load more if they sold them contract free. I would have purchased a bunch(and put them on eBay), but still left with two. Couldn't buy any without a contract.7230>7780>8700>8100>8300>9000>8900>9700>9800>9860> 9900>Z10>Q10>Z30>Passport>Classic
Currently a new BB Classic, the best phone I've ever had hands down.(Said that about my BB Passport too!)
Several iPhones, Androids, and WP in between.
- CrackBerry Abuser
02-05-13, 10:40 PM #12
- 234 Posts
What about an estimate for corporate deliveries, each of the major telcos would have a portion of their inventory dedicated to service corporate clients. This would be a difficult quantity to determine. Maybe there could be a poll asking who got supplied a Z10 by their company?
- 02-05-13, 10:48 PM #13
corporate orders probably are small right now. they have to pilot the device and make sure it will work for them. Plus with BES10 just rolling out and such I would say it will be a little bit before we here big orders from company's getting placed
- 02-05-13, 11:42 PM #17
The Bell store I was at today said they were only given 18, all spoken for through preorders...but, there are at least six other places to buy one just in that small mall...with two Walmart and two other similar sized malls within five miles, which have all the same players in them too. Adds up fast.
- CrackBerry Addict
02-06-13, 12:42 AM #21
- 945 Posts
- 02-06-13, 12:55 AM #23
BlackBerry will never reveal the actual number of BlackBerry Z10 devices sold to end-users. They always use couching terminology which means nothing at the end of the day. If first week sales are less than 100,000 units sold to end-users and/or organizations, there'll be some "splaining to do".
- 02-06-13, 07:16 AM #25
Way to hard to even take a guess at this. You'll need to wait for some official reports.
Your math is assuming that rogers stores were selling out of the Z10. While I know for a fact that some stores did sell out, I also know for a fact that some stores didn't sell ANY Z10s yesterday.
As someone else said, you're also missing FutureShop, Best Buy, The Source, etc. in your estimates.
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