[louzer]

The way things are playing out, things should be getting interesting by fall of this year. As we stand today, it appears that the cell phone market is dominated by Android and iOS. Recently, we've seen ICS, the new Galaxy Nexus, the iPhone 4S and the 'new' iPad. Apple blew the doors off sales records with the 4S and the 'new' iPad. Android is the most deployed OS. But all is not necessarily what it seems.

While the iPhone 4S had a great launch, it wasn't enough of a change to make Apple 4 owners want to upgrade. The 'new' iPad has a great screen, faster processor, and an LTE radio. Prior to the launch, the Apple mantra has been that it's all about the experience and not the specs. But these latest two devices are more about the specs and less about the experience (keep in mind that iOS 5 which serves the experience is not unique to the 4S). Since the iPad launch, I've heard people on TV commenting that they love it, but don't see the difference in the displays. I've seen the 'new' iPad next to the iPad 2, and I DO see the difference. But this is a sentiment that I'm hearing from average users. Also, people are starting to see the downside of having an LTE device on a capped data plan.

Android tablets are simply a tiny piece of the pie graph occupied almost solely by the iPad. But for phones, ICS was released with the Galaxy Nexus. The rumblings that I'm hearing is that fragmentation has adversely affected the Nexus. ICS has been out for a while, but there is still not ICS love for the older CDMA nexus. New phones are being released with Gingerbread and not ICS. And Motorola phones (isn't Motorola Mobility now a part of Google?) mostly won't see it. The Nexus concept breaks down at the carrier and OEM level because everyone wants to make their products' Android distinct to their brand.

Apple is most likely gonig to indroduce an iPhone 5 this year. I think that Apple chooses to use the iPhone (and not the iPad) to lead with. The iPhone 5 will probably get LTE plus a major makeover from hardware to OS which will make it new, cool, and slick.

By the fall, Google will probably have ICS deployment problems ironed out in time to launch a JellyBean Nexus (I'm willing to bet that they're done with Samsung for the Nexus and it will go back to HTC). And the Android world will have their new superstar.

Apple and Android have been leading the pack for quite some time. During this period, Blackberry released their line of OS7 phones which they were hoping would hold up the fort while waiting for BB10. By the fall, we'll get to see what they've got up their sleeve.

And let's not forget the sleeping giant. Microsoft has the luxury of lots of cash and huge manpower resources and have been maturing their WP7 for prime time. With the inclusion of Nokia to their equation and Wndows 8 coming (yep...that's right) this fall, they are going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Both RIM and Microsoft have been patiently been working behind the scenes taking themselves through major transitions. Maybe they will work out and maybe they won't. Both companies are betting the farm on their vision. From what I've seen from both, so far, I think it's fair to say that there's a coherent strategy in place that has been in place for some time now. The endpoint for thier strategies has been fall '12 all along.

Wihle Android and Apple hold a solid lead at this point, I think that it's a fair statement to say that it's not a sprint but it's a marathon.

I love my BB and my Playbook. But I just love technology in general. I think that this fall is going to present some major changes in companies' positions and it's all for the better. With four viable players in this arena, the winner is the consumer. I'm really looking forward to the fall.