Interesting Theory I Thought Of About Why Developers Aren't Supporting BB10 (whatsapp)

**ichat** · 12-17-2012, 06:41 AM

Is apple giving developers the nail?

Like a blackmail, you support bb10, and we no longer support you.

You guys think that's possible?

Sent from my Nintendo NES

**metz9444** · 12-17-2012, 06:48 AM

Oh this could get good

**SlcCorrado** · 12-17-2012, 06:49 AM

Not really sure at this point. I deftinitely think its possible that there are too many whatsapp threads though

**tonyrenier** · 12-17-2012, 06:53 AM

Please continue.............

**ichat** · 12-17-2012, 07:05 AM

Thing is this is a thread about something I guess nobody has thought about yet..

Its unique enough for its own thread

I think its very well possible as I can almost 100% tell you that most revenue for whatsapp comes through ios only.

Sent from my Nintendo NES

**ynomrah** · 12-17-2012, 07:11 AM

How could that be even plausible? Not only is there no developer who matters enough to say that to, but even if that was the case, they wouldn't seem to be so valuable to a platform considering they were to be unsupported for a wildly insignificant reason.

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**ichat** · 12-17-2012, 07:15 AM

Maybe it isnt plausible, still, unsupported? I'm really sorry but wait, we currently still have 65-70 million users on this platform. If 1,2 or even 3 people out of 10 upgrade to BB10, thats a **** lot, 7 million, 14 million and 21 million respectively. Unsupported?

**mikeo007** · 12-17-2012, 07:16 AM

No. It's simple, many of the big devs are playing the "watch and wait" game.
In the case of Whatsapp, why would Apple blackmail them to stop them from being on ONE additional platform?
It's already available on Android, Nokia, Symbian, BBOS and Windows phone.

Some people around here are really starting to let the Apple hate impair even their most basic cognitive functions.

**ichat** · 12-17-2012, 07:18 AM

Originally Posted by mikeo007

No. It's simple, many of the big devs are playing the "watch and wait" game.
In the case of Whatsapp, why would Apple blackmail them to stop them from being on ONE additional platform?
It's already available on Android, Nokia, Symbian, BBOS and Windows phone.

Some people around here are really starting to let the Apple hate impair even their most basic cogniive functions.

Well, thats a statement that we will need to see if its true over time, right now, we cant judge exactly what the devs will do. Still, I agree they said 'at the moment' so they might do what you have said. Still the statement could be valid, you see, iOS is a restricted world, no doubt.

**kevinnugent** · 12-17-2012, 07:24 AM

Originally Posted by ichat

Maybe it isnt plausible, still, unsupported? I'm really sorry but wait, we currently still have 65-70 million users on this platform. If 1,2 or even 3 people out of 10 upgrade to BB10, thats a **** lot, 7 million, 14 million and 21 million respectively. Unsupported?

In the Global scheme of things that isn't many really. Android sell, what, nearly that many phones a month. Apple have sold over 7 million iPhone 5's in the first week basically, and haven't opened sales up to the majority of the world yet. They didn't have a big splash in China and still sold over 2m devices on the first 2 days. I don't want to rain on your parade, but RIMs numbers are pretty insignificant. BB10 needs to sell 20m + just to scrap into third place. I think they can do it, but don't rely on old faithful Crackheads to be their only market.

**OniPod** · 12-17-2012, 07:25 AM

Originally Posted by ichat

Is apple giving developers the nail?

Like a blackmail, you support bb10, and we no longer support you.

You guys think that's possible?

Sent from my Nintendo NES

You don't think up a theory, you think of a hypothesis, once it is generally accepted (proven), then it becomes a theory.

**ichat** · 12-17-2012, 07:25 AM

Originally Posted by kevinnugent

In the Global scheme of things that isn't many really. Android sell, what, nearly that many phones a month. Apple have sold over 7 million iPhone 5's in the first week basically, and haven't opened sales up to the majority of the world yet. They didn't have a big splash in China and still sold over 2m devices on the first 2 days. I don't want to rain on your parade, but RIMs numbers are pretty insignificant. BB10 needs to sell 20m + just to scrap into third place. I think they can do it, but don't rely on old faithful Crackheads to be their only market.

Obviously not but I still think, IMO that a few million is still good enough to code an app. And with the tools BB provides, it shouldn't be so hard

**ichat** · 12-17-2012, 07:27 AM

Originally Posted by Oniberry

You don't think up a theory, you think of a hypothesis, once it is generally accepted (proven), then it becomes a theory.

Wish I could change that, sorry! Thanks for the clarification.

**kevinnugent** · 12-17-2012, 07:29 AM

Originally Posted by ichat

Obviously not but I still think, IMO that a few million is still good enough to code an app. And with the tools BB provides, it shouldn't be so hard

I don't know what the net profit for a developer is though. Say they sell it for 99c. Not all BBers will buy it. Lets say a million do. Then they have to pay RIM a margin. Then they have to support it. I don't know what their break even or profit number is. They must know its not worth their while. Now.

**ichat** · 12-17-2012, 07:32 AM

Originally Posted by kevinnugent

I don't know what the net profit for a developer is though. Say they sell it for 99c. Not all BBers will buy it. Lets say a million do. Then they have to pay RIM a margin. Then they have to support it. I don't know what their break even or profit number is. They must know its not worth their while. Now.

Good point, but WhatsApp was always meant to be free I guess, I never resulted in paying for it over the few years of using it.

**ibpluto** · 12-17-2012, 07:36 AM

I think this is moot until we actually see how many apps BB10 launches with. Considering the numbers being thrown around are anywhere from 70,000 to well over 100,000 apps at launch, I would say BB10 is being supported pretty darn well for a platform that is not out yet.....certianlty better than WP8

Other comments that have come out from developers is that because the platoform is so easy to develop for and the tools so extensive, some developers are saying they would want to develop for BB10 first, and port to iOS and Droid second.

http://forums.crackberry.com/general...ctives-757593/

As for Apple putting pressure on developers to not develop for another platform.....I highly doubt it. I think developers could easily hold the hammer. Droid Market share is higher than iOS, and if the most popular apps leave iOS, the same thing that happened to BB would happen to iOS, especially considering iOS is not built like BB10 to support web based apps as well.

I think its a matter of not all cards are being played, so we don't know what will be available at launch. I also think some developers are playing the wait and see game. Other than Whatsapp and Netflix (Which I will admit until it came up here, I had never even heard of Whatsapp), I think BB10 will have a lot of heavy hitters available at launch (I still think the two most important MUST HAVE apps for BB10 is Skype and Instagram)

**belfastdispatcher** · 12-17-2012, 07:48 AM

At first you'd think it unbelievable but please remember even Facebook has been found to have hired a PR company to denigrate Google Social Networks. These things do happen, there's more behind the scenes then we'll ever know.

**ichat** · 12-17-2012, 07:49 AM

Originally Posted by ibpluto

I think this is moot until we actually see how many apps BB10 launches with. Considering the numbers being thrown around are anywhere from 70,000 to well over 100,000 apps at launch, I would say BB10 is being supported pretty darn well for a platform that is not out yet.....certianlty better than WP8

Other comments that have come out from developers is that because the platoform is so easy to develop for and the tools so extensive, some developers are saying they would want to develop for BB10 first, and port to iOS and Droid second.

http://forums.crackberry.com/general...ctives-757593/

As for Apple putting pressure on developers to not develop for another platform.....I highly doubt it. I think developers could easily hold the hammer. Droid Market share is higher than iOS, and if the most popular apps leave iOS, the same thing that happened to BB would happen to iOS, especially considering iOS is not built like BB10 to support web based apps as well.

I think its a matter of not all cards are being played, so we don't know what will be available at launch. I also think some developers are playing the wait and see game. Other than Whatsapp and Netflix (Which I will admit until it came up here, I had never even heard of Whatsapp), I think BB10 will have a lot of heavy hitters available at launch (I still think the two most important MUST HAVE apps for BB10 is Skype and Instagram)

Thanks for the new viewpoint, it never came to my mind that if Whatsapp does leave Appstore, then it will impact Apple, still to conflict with that, does Apple claim ownership of the app files when it reaches the Store? Let me reframe that, does Apple get to keep the file even if a developer has withdrawn?
Cause I see these TOS all the time with Apple, one of them Ive read is that they have the ability to turn your iPhone into a lifeless brick

thats my other thought,

**ichat** · 12-17-2012, 07:52 AM

Originally Posted by belfastdispatcher

At first you'd think it unbelievable but please remember even Facebook has been found to have hired a PR company to denigrate Google Social Networks. These things do happen, there's more behind the scenes then we'll ever know.

Ahh, is that true? So they're is a lot to these companies than what we see on top. We see the cherry. Nothing else.

**belfastdispatcher** · 12-17-2012, 07:56 AM

Originally Posted by ichat

Ahh, is that true? So they're is a lot to these companies than what we see on top. We see the cherry. Nothing else.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/05/12/facebook-busted-in-clumsy-smear-attempt-on-google.html

**Bilaal** · 12-17-2012, 08:05 AM

If this they're playing the "wait and see" game, that's not really a problem, I'll gladly pay 99p once it arrives on App World.

**ynomrah** · 12-17-2012, 08:08 AM

Originally Posted by ichat

Maybe it isnt plausible, still, unsupported? I'm really sorry but wait, we currently still have 65-70 million users on this platform. If 1,2 or even 3 people out of 10 upgrade to BB10, thats a **** lot, 7 million, 14 million and 21 million respectively. Unsupported?

Okay then, let's assume 3 out of every ten people that currently have bb would switch to bb10. Let's just say that number is 21 million. Well, based on the fact people are contractually obligated still, this would mean that 21 million would likely take place over a 2 year time span. Throw in another 5 million from people switching from another platform and you have yourself 26 million bb10 users after 2 years (which would mean they are averaging over 1 million a month, which would be a surprise to me).

Even If that turns out to be the case though, then this would confirm that bb10 would still not be a viable platform to develop for initially, if ever. To even get to that 26m would likely take more than a 18 months after launch which could likely result in complete loss in developer interest by then. That's assuming the demand is even that great for 3/10 current users.

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**ichat** · 12-17-2012, 08:12 AM

Originally Posted by ynomrah

Okay then, let's assume 3 out of every ten people that currently have bb would switch to bb10. Let's just say that number is 21 million. Well, based on the fact people are contractually obligated still, this would mean that 21 million would likely take place over a 2 year time span. Throw in another 5 million from people switching from another platform and you have yourself 26 million bb10 users after 2 years (which would mean they are averaging over 1 million a month, which would be a surprise to me).

Even If that turns out to be the case though, then this would confirm that bb10 would still not be a viable platform to develop for initially, if ever. To even get to that 26m would likely take more than a 18 months after launch which could likely result in complete loss in developer interest by then. That's assuming the demand is even that great for 3/10 current users.

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The demand may grow again, we can only guess, these are statistics that can only tell later on.

Sent from my Nintendo NES

**Roo Zilla** · 12-17-2012, 11:29 AM

Originally Posted by ichat

Is apple giving developers the nail?

Like a blackmail, you support bb10, and we no longer support you.

You guys think that's possible?

I'm curious.... in what way do you think Apple supports Whatsapp?

**RubberChicken76** · 12-17-2012, 11:32 AM

Originally Posted by ichat

Is apple giving developers the nail?

Yeah - they could pull a "Nintendo in the 1980s", but I really doubt it. I think it's more a case of

a) Let's see how this thing does
b) Perception (right or wrong) that the old platform is dying and there isn't "opportunity on BlackBerry"
c) Resources available to support

Again - Whatsapp said they don't currently have plans to support BlackBerry 10. That's not the same thing as "they won't ever support BlackBerry 10"