[louzer]

I listened to the Crackberry podcast from yesterday and a few interesting things jumped out at me.

First of all, one of the major problems is the hefty inventory writedown and it's effect on RIM's books.

Second is that RIM user drop-off has to be stemmed so that there is a reasonable user base willing to stick with RIM once the new devices come out.

Third is Chris U's statement that prior to the call, the only real unknown was the slope of the revenue loss being the real determinant as to how much time RIM has left.

This got me thinking. BB7 phones are not selling because a) RIM is no longer the 'cool' brand, b) other OSs have functionality that does not exist on BB7, and c) people who are holding on are waiting for BB10 and not wanting to jump into BB7 (especially if it means eating their carrier subsidy for 2-3 years).

So here's my suggestion. If RIM has an abundance of BB7 phones in inventory, instead of writing them down to zero, sell them directly to consumers at carrier-subsidised prices. So instead of having to pay 600.00 for a Bold 99x0 or Torch 98x0, you'd pay them 199.00.

This way, people who have not upgraded to BB7 yet (and there are quite a few out here) would be able to give BB7 a try without having to use their carrier discount in advance of the release of BB10.

So my question is: Would you upgrade to BB7 if you were still able to exercise your carrier discount once BB10 comes out?

[f1mx]

I'm in a need to replace my old 9550. The battery is pretty much dying and I don't want to invest more o a phone that has slowly been letting me down lately. I've been enduring waiting for BB10, but if something like this is offered, I'll surely grab a nice OS7 device

[BaconMunch]

Agreed, they should have instated a program to get EVERYBODY off OS5 and BES users from OS6 to OS7. Why?

A) because BlackBerry phones don't die, so many people are still using OS5 devices and this is what they see as BlackBerry; hourglasses and bad browsing.

B) because OS7 in North America was always a stop gap solution until BB10, the Bold 9900 was released early fall in 2011 in Canada, anyone that signed a 2-3 year contract will have the phone on contract for at least one more year remaining by the time BB10 is released.

C) when BB10 is released, given the nature of business contracts and their wait and see approach, how many BB10 devices will actually be signed onto BES, and if they don't, will they still be holding onto the BB OS5 and OS6 devices of yore?

[MountainProud]

I for one would jump on this. I'm in dire need of a new phone as my 9650 is struggling very badly.

[whitbags]

I would love a 9900, but don't want to part with �350+ for a SIM free, or to waste an upgrade. I'm waiting for BB10.

Your suggestion has a lot to recommend it.

[louzer]

To me it seems win/win. It allows them to stem the losses that they're already expecting to have to take while keeping existing BB users onboard and happy. It would also allow for people on either Android of iOS to give BB7 a try without having to abandon their current phone and/or their carrier discount.

[antheauxny]

I'm sure everybody would lol.

[jegs2]

This got me thinking. BB7 phones are not selling because a) RIM is no longer the 'cool' brand, b) other OSs have functionality that does not exist on BB7, and c) people who are holding on are waiting for BB10 and not wanting to jump into BB7 (especially if it means eating their carrier subsidy for 2-3 years).

The bolded portion is me, and I suspect many others. That is known as the Osborne Effect.

[sleepngbear]

Agreed, they should have instated a program to get EVERYBODY off OS5 and BES users from OS6 to OS7. Why?

A) because BlackBerry phones don't die, so many people are still using OS5 devices and this is what they see as BlackBerry; hourglasses and bad browsing.

B) because OS7 in North America was always a stop gap solution until BB10, the Bold 9900 was released early fall in 2011 in Canada, anyone that signed a 2-3 year contract will have the phone on contract for at least one more year remaining by the time BB10 is released.

C) when BB10 is released, given the nature of business contracts and their wait and see approach, how many BB10 devices will actually be signed onto BES, and if they don't, will they still be holding onto the BB OS5 and OS6 devices of yore?

This is all very true, but wow, that first point says so much more than I think anyone has stopped to consider.

The only problem I see with dropping the prices of BB7 devices so drastically is the risk of angering those who either already blew their subsidy or paid fill price for one. And I would guess there are many more of those than there would be new purchasers of BB7's - even discounted - over the next four months. If you recall, there was quite a backlash against Apple when they slashed the price of the first iPhone within a few months after its introduction. Of course that didn't stop them from emptying at&t's shelves anyway ... but I digest ... Point is, that's a big group of users that RIM does not want to risk disenfranchising.

[tjseaman]

Only reason I haven't gone from a 9700 to 9900 was because of BB10 phones coming out. I was about to upgrade when OS7 came out, but then I heard the news of the new BB10, and rather than use my upgrade from the carrier I am waiting. I think this was RIM's fault for even mentioning BB10 before the OS7 phones had a chance to sell. I for one am a huge fan of my Blackberry but unless I can get a better priced upgrade from OS7 to a BB10 I will unfortunately wait. Sorry RIM! I'm still confident you will succeed and BB10 will be outstanding!!!

[louzer]

This is all very true, but wow, that first point says so much more than I think anyone has stopped to consider.

The only problem I see with dropping the prices of BB7 devices so drastically is the risk of angering those who either already blew their subsidy or paid fill price for one. And I would guess there are many more of those than there would be new purchasers of BB7's - even discounted - over the next four months. If you recall, there was quite a backlash against Apple when they slashed the price of the first iPhone within a few months after its introduction. Of course that didn't stop them from emptying at&t's shelves anyway ... but I digest ... Point is, that's a big group of users that RIM does not want to risk disenfranchising.

This is similar to people who bought Playbook at launch vs after the discount to 199.99. Bestbuy is already discounting 99x0s to 99.99 and discounts have to be expected as any inventory ages.

For me, the issue has been that my ideal BB7 device falls somewhere between the 9930 and the 9850. With a program like this, I'd consider buying one of each.

[MisterMe11]

I would. I considered replacing my Bold 9000 with a 'temporary' BB7 device but even the Curves were going for $350 without a commitment last time I checked.

[sleepngbear]

This is similar to people who bought Playbook at launch vs after the discount to 199.99. Bestbuy is already discounting 99x0s to 99.99 and discounts have to be expected as any inventory ages.

For me, the issue has been that my ideal BB7 device falls somewhere between the 9930 and the 9850. With a program like this, I'd consider buying one of each.

I'm not saying it's the wrong thing to do. I think most reasonable people would understand this and not feel slighted. In fact, it may very well be worth the risk to 1, unload a lot of excess inventory, and 2, generate some much-needed goodwill that will go a long way towards locking in BB10 buyers.

[shemaree09]

Agreed, they should have instated a program to get EVERYBODY off OS5 and BES users from OS6 to OS7. Why?

A) because BlackBerry phones don't die, so many people are still using OS5 devices and this is what they see as BlackBerry; hourglasses and bad browsing.

This is one of the biggest reasons why sooo many people hate Blackberry right now.

If I still had an OS 5 device with no touchscreen, crappy trackball, and awful web browser, an iPhone or Android would be the next logical upgrade. Of course they would seem better than an OS 5 Blackberry.

Almost everyone I know who bashes Blackberry always has/had a cheap Curve or dinosaur Blackberry.

Many people dont even know OS 7 devices exist or how much better they are than OS 5/6.

This happens because RIM takes TOO LONG to release devices. BB10 phones should be out RIGHT NOW!

The reason many people dropped their OS 5/6 phones was because they took too long to release OS 7.
When OS 7 came out they either:

A. moved on to another platform, or
B. decided to wait for BB10 that was rumored to be released not too soon after.

People right now are bored with their phones. iPhone 4s wasn't a huge jump from iPhone 4 so RIM should release BB10 NOW. If they continue to wait so long, people are gonna upgrade to iPhone 5 or get whatever new Android comes out that week.

[AggreX]

Hope Rim sees this thread and makes the right decision to retain as many OS 5-6-7 users. If Oct 2012 is the release date for BB10 then its going to be a rough 4 months of bad news/rumors, stock shorting, etc. Everyone knows BB10 OS is incompatible with OS 7 or less so who in their right mind would buy OS 7 products? I like the OP idea and would go so far as to recommend pushing the BB7 inventory out to current OS 7 or less users and have a program that allows them to trade-up to BB10 without carrier involvement. The program will costs lots of money but so does stagnant, stale inventory waiting to be written off AND lost sales / users. I want the new BB10 phone badly and reluctantly will accept the touch screen phone.....suffering daily with OS5

[Laura Knotek]

If such an option were available, I would probably still be using a BB.

The OS7 devices looked like a waste of an upgrade to me, so I switched. If I could have gotten an OS7 device and still kept my upgrade for BB10, I probably would have done so.

[kevinnugent]

RIM has brought this upon themselves with their relationship with the carriers. They are tied up now, and would never be able to deal direct with the public.

[southlander]

RIM has brought this upon themselves with their relationship with the carriers. They are tied up now, and would never be able to deal direct with the public.

Why not? The carriers don't like subsidies anyway. If you had some off contract users that put a new devices on their plans the carriers make the full margin on the monthly plan without having to subsidize another device as an upgrade. Carriers love you to stay loyal and keep an old phone on a high margin plan (ie data services).

Are you saying RIM has something in the carrier contracts that prohibits them (RIM) from selling direct?

Sent from my BlackBerry Bold 9930 using Tapatalk

[crackcookie]

Of course people would, why wouldn't they want to get a phone for 1/3 of its price? The real question is, what will RIM do and is RIM willing to cut its losses and increase market share by dumping millions of its phones into the market place? I would do it.

[symbotier]

I would do it. I am still rocking my 9700 and have few complaints. I've got a Playbook for games & browsing & it has convinced me that my next phone should be a BB10 device.

But if you offer me a 9900 right now for $200 I would jump on it and maybe delay my BB10 perchase until the full keyboard version drops.

Sent from my BlackBerry 9700 using Tapatalk

[otacon]

i bought my 9860 knowing full well that BB10 was coming out soon. BUT, just loving the full touchscreen, so splurged on it. However, will be first in line for BB10 when it launches in Malaysia...

[ayekon]

With a 1 billion write down...
They should be looking at the option of almost giving them away...
The cash flow from the subscriptions will be worth it in the end...
They'll at least get something from the deal...

[louzer]

With a 1 billion write down...
They should be looking at the option of almost giving them away...
The cash flow from the subscriptions will be worth it in the end...
They'll at least get something from the deal...

Exactly. Either the inventory sits in their warehouses until they are eventually written down to zero, or they use the inventory to maintain interest in being a BB user, at least get some revenue from sales of the handsets, stem the drop in US marketshare, and keep revenue flowing in for BIS subscriptions.

I've been on the fence with BB7 phones primarily because I think the BB10 phones will be pricey and I want to be able to use my discount. But given the opportunity to try a new device while waiting for BB10, I'd most likely jump on the opportunity.

Another thing to consider is that my contract for my 9650 pre-dates Sprint's implementation of the additional $10.00 per month mandatory data usage fee, so any phone swap I do raises my monthly bill. Given that I'll be paying the additional $10.00 per month once the BB10 phones come out, I'd be giving Sprint additional money based on a switch. I know that this is a Sprint-only penomenon, but I would think that this would put Sprint on board to supporting RIM in allowing discounted phones.

[gregorylkelly]

I almost think RIM should sell half of their inventory of BB7 device for $250 unlocked, off contract. They would have to do the research though and see if it would hurt their future pricing for BB10, but I think it would be a good idea to give people the option to purchase a BB7 device without locking them into a 2 year contract.

[OniBerry]

Do they not already have a trade in program (RIM) already?