[sinsin07]

No, the loyal fans are more patient, they realize that Rome wasn't built in a day!

Swiped On My Zed10

Evidence on these boards says otherwise.

[darkehawke]

Evidence on these boards says otherwise.

Exactly. I was a loyal fan until the PlayBook and BlackBerry 10 gross mishandling.
I hate apple for the way they conduct their business and BlackBerry does exactly the same thing now. People here complain about isheep buying anything that is ape yet in this thread praises BlackBerry for using their fans to sell products to at a high price for testing. The level of hypocrisy on crackberry increases each day

Posted via CB10

[web99]

If that's the case, then BB10 was not ready and should not have been released, if that was the case. I doubt it was, but why would they release a phone and new OS that they desperately needed to save the company, and only plan to sell it to a limited amount of people, when they were losing BB users?


So you're suggesting, that Blackberry may have, on purpose, released the Z10, and priced it so high for the purpose of letting the die hard BB users buy it, test it, report bugs, etc... so Blackberry could then take their feedback, and fix said bugs, while still working on getting the top apps the everyone wants, and then, what? Release BB10 again to the regular, non diehard BB consumer? So they willing risked a lower adoption rate of BB10 and the Z10, and a bad impression of their new product, so that those who just have to have the latest Blackberry, will be their guinea pig?

So basically, Blackberry didn't think that BB10 and the Z10 was good enough for the masses? So they priced it tryng to make maxixum profit on the Blackberry diehards who they know will buy the phone no matter what?

I would not agree with the point that BBRY though thst BB10 in its present form was not good enough for the masses. Unfortunately BlackBerry was not in a position to wait any longer, so they had to go with what they had.

They had already delayed the BB10 release at least twice. There was just no way their corporate customers or regular consumers would have tolerated another delay.

They had to go ahead and release the platform with what they had. As Thunder Buck and others have mentioned, the 10.0 was not perfect, but still very good for a first iteration of a brand new platform.


Posted via CB10 from my spectacular Z10

[njblackberry]

They had to go ahead and release the platform with what they had. As Thunder Buck and others have mentioned, the 10.0 was not perfect, but still very good for a first iteration of a brand new platform.
Posted via CB10 from my spectacular Z10

But was it/is it good enough to catch up to the duopoly and get people to switch from their existing platform?
Remember the nonsense about how "Nearly Half Of BlackBerry Z10 Buyers Switching From iPhone And Android" which should have resulted in subscriber gains?

What differentiates BB10? High prices? Lack of availability of apps (and now devices)?

They released what they had on 30 January. That much can not be debated. They fluffed up the sales rhetoric (and launched in "friendly" countries) and got caught. Can they catch up?

That's the debate that the two sides will not agree on.

[jaunty_mellifluous]

Without comment on whether bb10 is selling or not,
The plural of anecdote is not data!

Ah forget it, I'm going to bed.

Posted via CB10

You sound quite interesting, please continue

Sent from my BlackBerry 9900

[FFR]

Remember the nonsense about how "Nearly Half Of BlackBerry Z10 Buyers Switching From iPhone And Android" which should have resulted in subscriber gains?

Its wasn't nonsense, I actually believe it to be true. It shows that Legacy BB users are not interested upgrading to BB 10 and that was a miscalculation on Thor's part.

They released what they had on 30 January. That much can not be debated. They fluffed up the sales rhetoric (and launched in "friendly" countries) and got caught.

BB 10 sales are not sustainable. Couple that with Thor's new strategy of launching a new BB 10 handset every quarter this year, and BB has effectively saturated the market with BB 10 Handset and the second hand prices have fallen as a result, thus having a negative impact on Brand Value (textbook case for Brand equity dilution).

That's the debate that the two sides will not agree on.

when is Blackberry's next quarterly report? September?
We should know more by then.

[Morty2264]

That's the cynical characterization, which I don't share. They got a product to market as best they could. Again, I had no issue with the Z10, and I recognized that technology frequently gets price cuts in the months following introduction. The Samsung Galaxy S4 was seeing widespread price cuts within weeks of its introduction.

BlackBerry maintained high prices pretty much through that first quarter. Simple supply and demand; they wanted to keep demand down as they addressed launch issues and did so by maintaining relatively high prices. This allowed them to hit their (already delayed) launch window, made phones available to customers who wanted them and were largely prepared to live with the launch issues, and provided the company with revenue from BB10.

Agreed. Besides, every product ever released has its tweaks and learning curve. I keep wondering why everyone seems to ignore this trend when it comes to BlackBerry devices.

Posted via CB10

[JasW]

Agreed. Besides, every product ever released has its tweaks and learning curve. I keep wondering why everyone seems to ignore this trend when it comes to BlackBerry devices.

Posted via CB10

Nice rationalization. Poor sales are all part of the game plan -- yeah, that's the ticket!

[Morty2264]

Nice rationalization. Poor sales are all part of the game plan -- yeah, that's the ticket!

Lol. I'm glad that though you disagreed with me, you didn't call me names or belittle my intelligence. And, you made your comeback funny. Thank you for your comment, and for disagreeing with me in a civil way.

Posted via CB10

[bbfanboi007]

FWIW, I don't think I saw another iPhone in the wild for at least a year after I got mine in 2007.

[Thunderbuck]

Nice rationalization. Poor sales are all part of the game plan -- yeah, that's the ticket!

I get how that sounds like a rationalization, but I've long felt that if BlackBerry had somehow miraculously convinced 10 million users to ditch iOS and Android in that first quarter, that they'd have had 8 million phones returned. It's not that BB10 is such a bad platform, but it needs some time to build the app portfolio and get features implemented.

Some of that work is already done, and in a few months they'll be much further along. Again, BB10 is already much more appealing to many more potential customers than it was at launch.

From the awesome PHYSICAL keyboard of my Q10

[Bbnivende]

I get how that sounds like a rationalization, but I've long felt that if BlackBerry had somehow miraculously convinced 10 million users to ditch iOS and Android in that first quarter, that they'd have had 8 million phones returned. It's not that BB10 is such a bad platform, but it needs some time to build the app portfolio and get features implemented.

Some of that work is already done, and in a few months they'll be much further along. Again, BB10 is already much more appealing to many more potential customers than it was at launch.

From the awesome PHYSICAL keyboard of my Q10

Yes, but I kind of miss the days last year when BB10 and its devices were so full of promise. We as a group did not realize how badly the USA market had slipped, that the marketing would be poor, that the USA roll out would be delayed, that that BB10.1 would be buggy and that the Z10 would be a device that would have teething problems.

Just got back from Netherlands and a cruise to Norway and never saw a single BB10 phone and only saw two legacy phones. I just think that it will be really hard for Samsing/iphone owners to make the switch. Current phone owners are not much into upgrading if their phone still works. The whole smart phone market is slowing down in the developed countries markets at the worst time for a new platform rollout and legacy owners as a market is not a given.

[BBnygel]

Your still a kid bro. Universities are for iphones and androids.

Looking at everyone's phones won't give you the numbers you need to say that BlackBerry there is not successful.

Posted via CB10

[Bbnivende]

Your still a kid bro. Universities are for iphones and androids.

Looking at everyone's phones won't give you the numbers you need to say that BlackBerry there is not successful.

Posted via CB10

Seeing is believing ... you are just fooling yourself.

[Thunderbuck]

Yes, but I kind of miss the days last year when BB10 and its devices were so full of promise. We as a group did not realize how badly the USA market had slipped, that the marketing would be poor, that the USA roll out would be delayed, that that BB10.1 would be buggy and that the Z10 would be a device that would have teething problems.

Just got back from Netherlands and a cruise to Norway and never saw a single BB10 phone and only saw two legacy phones. I just think that it will be really hard for Samsing/iphone owners to make the switch. Current phone owners are not much into upgrading if their phone still works. The whole smart phone market is slowing down in the developed countries markets at the worst time for a new platform rollout and legacy owners as a market is not a given.

Huh? How does this reduce the "promise" of BB10? They're great devices, and the OS is being steadily improved.

Your points about the market slowing down are somewhat valid, but there's still a very large body of people out there who have never bought a Smartphone before, and may be due in the next couple of years.

In the meantime, BlackBerry is pretty much at a point now where they can begin a solid marketing push. They're reasonably well-positioned for solid sales in calendar Q3. That doesn't mean I see them making a serious dent in Apple or Samsung sales, but it would be really cool to see them move 5 million+ units in each of Q3-Q4.

[FFR]

Huh? How does this reduce the "promise" of BB10? They're great devices, and the OS is being steadily improved.

Your points about the market slowing down are somewhat valid, but there's still a very large body of people out there who have never bought a Smartphone before, and may be due in the next couple of years.

In the meantime, BlackBerry is pretty much at a point now where they can begin a solid marketing push. They're reasonably well-positioned for solid sales in calendar Q3. That doesn't mean I see them making a serious dent in Apple or Samsung sales, but it would be really cool to see them move 5 million+ units in each of Q3-Q4.

I think your getting your hopes up, q3 bb10 forecast appear to be around 3 million.

[sinsin07]

Figured that I'd do some math around the original post.

There have been around 5-6 million smartphones sold since BB10 launched in Canada. A 10-15% market share for BB10 phones would give 500,000 to 900,000 units sold in Canada.

There are around 13-14 million smartphones in use in Canada. So BB10 phones should make up around 3.6% to 6.9% of the installed base.

If the original poster saw 345 unique distinct smartphones, and 4 of them were BB10 phones, that's 1.16% (around the midpoint of his estimate).
However, the confidence interval for that sample size is around 0.3% to 3.0%.

If he saw 7 out of 300 phones being BB10 phones, then the confidence interval would be 0.9% to 4.8%.

If he saw 0 out of 90 phones being BB10 phones, then the confidence interval would be 0% to 4.0%

I guess the key takeaway is:

We're not sure how well BB10 is selling in Canada. However, even if it is selling well, you are likely to go long stretches of time without seeing a BB10 phone. Even if BB10 has a 10% share in Canada (which translates into about a 20% share of premium smartphones), you'd expect to have periods where you see 100 straight smartphones without a BB10 device.

In that sense, looking at smartphones in the wild as a gauge of sales is fairly inaccurate unless you are actually identifying many hundreds and perhaps thousands of unique smartphones.

Math? Reads more like science fiction.

[Thunderbuck]

I think your getting your hopes up, q3 bb10 forecast appear to be around 3 million.

We'll see. My baseline is that they need 10 mil out by the end of the year just to justify staying in the handset business, and 3 mil in Q3 will help get them there.

From the awesome PHYSICAL keyboard of my Q10

[sinsin07]

FWIW, I don't think I saw another iPhone in the wild for at least a year after I got mine in 2007.

You're apt terminology "in the wild" may have been a contributing factor.

[FFR]

FWIW, I don't think I saw another iPhone in the wild for at least a year after I got mine in 2007.

That was because it was only released to one carrier in the US and cost 600 dollars.

[darkehawke]

Agreed. Besides, every product ever released has its tweaks and learning curve. I keep wondering why everyone seems to ignore this trend when it comes to BlackBerry devices.

Posted via CB10

Because these learning trends have already been learnt, why are BlackBerry still living in the past and not looking at their competition?


Posted via CB10

[the_sleuth]

There is a lot of berating between users of different mobile platforms. But it doesn't change that fact that iOS has been around for 6 years and Google's Android has been here for 5 years. Both of these platforms have been refined over the years.

Yes, BB 10.0 has had teething issues as a new platform and BB must be commended for launching 10.1 and soon 10.2 iterations so close to January initiation. If only the carriers would be delivering faster updates.

All of this does not change the fact that many users have grown with their respective ecosystems (be it iTunes or Google Play). It will be very difficult to switch the average consumer with many years of vested interest in each of these ecosystems (and already paid for apps). Also there are many BBOS users that will not switch to BB10 for it being very different from old OS. Other BBOS users have switched to other platforms. At beginning of the year, there was a lot of optimism in converting current BBOS users to BB10. But reality strikes like a blunt instrument sometimes after the last earnings release and conference call. For TH, the runaway is getting shorter, he's under tremendous pressure to deliver BB's revival, and all will be revealed on September 27, 2013.

IMHO, he is not the right man to evangelize the strengths of BB10. BB needs a true leader and charismatic showman. TH comes across as Ryan Bailey Howard from The Office:

[thecsman]

Agree with op. Sales are not going up, but down. What will BlackBerry do now?

Posted via CB10