How scalable is the BB10 production going to be?
- I'm sure internally that RIMM has done alot of work trying to determine how many phones are needed at launch.
But what if the unexpected happens and everyone wants it to the tune of 1 million extra units. How many months would it take them to play catch up?
Does anyone have any idea how many phone RIMM is intending to manufacture for launch?08-08-12 09:38 PMLike 0 - This is a very good question because rim has no idea about the demand at launch or lack of. They must play this carefully as a large enough shortage at launch could potentially put off many customers who would have to wait another month or so for a new batch of devices. I guess its always safer to produce more than not enough when launching a product.08-08-12 10:58 PMLike 0
- 1 Million extra units isn't really that much.
in the past RIM was pumping out 10+ million devices a quarter, which is about 63 working days give or take, so they can produce 158 thousand devices a day, so in a little over 1 week they could have the extra million units, assuming the 10 million was their maximum production per quarter.kfh227 likes this.08-09-12 08:57 AMLike 1 - I think it would be better to make too few than to make too many and have to do another write off. Having to come out and apologise that your product is in high demand is good press and it's easy to ratchet up production after - no harm done. A write off would waste a lot of money, and would create much negative publicity.yasmar likes this.08-09-12 10:05 AMLike 1
- I'm sure internally that RIMM has done alot of work trying to determine how many phones are needed at launch.
But what if the unexpected happens and everyone wants it to the tune of 1 million extra units. How many months would it take them to play catch up?
Does anyone have any idea how many phone RIMM is intending to manufacture for launch?
http://citytv.rdmmedia.topscms.com/i...914ef3209.jpeg
Hopefully BB10 is able to gain momentum once independent reviews start coming and RIM actually starts decent marketing campaigns and get people to start talking about it.08-09-12 10:22 AMLike 0 - Making not enough is definitely better than too many. Too many makes it look like a flop. Making too few makes it look like it is in high demand, but they need to make sure they can make more quickly enough. A short wait is acceptable, but a long wait may cause people to look elsewhere. Too long a wait also makes it look like they had little confidence in the release.08-09-12 10:38 AMLike 0
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On topic, does anyone know who will be assembling the BB10 devices for RIM? Wondering they'll be sticking with quanta or if they have someone else lined up? That will definitely have an impact on how fast they can ramp production.08-09-12 10:44 AMLike 0 - Sith_ApprenticeMod Team EmeritusGood enough for some people, the best option for several people, not good enough for most people.
On topic, does anyone know who will be assembling the BB10 devices for RIM? Wondering they'll be sticking with quanta or if they have someone else lined up? That will definitely have an impact on how fast they can ramp production.
I would assume RIM's own plants will also be manufacturing devices.08-09-12 10:55 AMLike 0 - 1 Million extra units isn't really that much.
in the past RIM was pumping out 10+ million devices a quarter, which is about 63 working days give or take, so they can produce 158 thousand devices a day, so in a little over 1 week they could have the extra million units, assuming the 10 million was their maximum production per quarter.Last edited by Roo Zilla; 08-09-12 at 04:52 PM.
08-09-12 04:48 PMLike 0 - @Roo Zilla
While I agree that there is far more too it that just the assembly, I would wager that RIM brings in more inventory than they assemble on the first RUN, for the scaleability of the BB10 production, RIM bringing in an extra 10% of components when they are hoping for good production and good demand, doesn't cost as much to be sitting on part inventory as fully assembled inventory. RIM isn't new to the game of manufacturing they wouldn't run their warehouses dry.08-09-12 05:55 PMLike 0 - @Roo Zilla
While I agree that there is far more too it that just the assembly, I would wager that RIM brings in more inventory than they assemble on the first RUN, for the scaleability of the BB10 production, RIM bringing in an extra 10% of components when they are hoping for good production and good demand, doesn't cost as much to be sitting on part inventory as fully assembled inventory. RIM isn't new to the game of manufacturing they wouldn't run their warehouses dry.
1. You don't want to sit on parts inventory in the 21st century in tech. Component prices are constantly dropping, or components themselves are changing. For example, I haven't read anything about the new Playbook, but if they're using a 45nm CPU in there, they're already behind since everybody is moving to 32nm. Which means that as CPU fabs rev up 32nm process, they'll discontinue 45nm, which would behoove RIM to update the rest of their hardware to use the new chips.
2. Assembly costs are usually a small part of the cost of an entire device. For example, for a new model iPhone, the parts cost is about $200, the assembly cost, paid to Foxconn, is about $10-15 per unit. That's been simplified a bit, since Foxconn also manufactures some of the parts that go into an iPhone, most notably the antenna, for which they receive additional payments.
3. Because assembly costs are not the dominant cost in a smartphone, parts basically equal the whole. Sitting on component inventory and sitting on phones is basically the same thing. Furthermore, if you have the capacity, you may as well assemble them because most of the parts are not interchangeable. It's not like smartphone parts are legos, most of them are very specific to a particular model, for example, the modem on a Verizon phone is different than one used for an ATT phone, and a lot of these parts are on SoC's.
4. If you have assembly capacity, and parts, unless you're using part time labor, you're plant is lying idle.
So what's the best solution for RIM if BB10 is a huge hit and they don't have enough phones to go around? Order components ASAP, and if your assembly plant does not have enough capacity, you contract out and again, ASAP. Maybe even offer to prepay or to finance equipment to get stuff sooner.
Tech manufacturing, in 2012, is actually limited by supply, and has been for a few years now. How many times have you heard about hit tech items being out of stock because of insufficient supply? Everything from super AMOLED screens to SoCs to memory is constrained because there just isn't the capacity to produce them on demand and risk-averse manufacturers are more than willing to contract out to the major players. Things might get better soon, and smaller companies might be able to get whatever they need on the spot market or have their components manufactured on a timely basis, but as long as the worldwide demand for mobile devices keeps increasing, it's something that we're all going to have to get used to.Last edited by Roo Zilla; 08-10-12 at 03:00 AM.
kfh227 likes this.08-09-12 06:30 PMLike 1
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How scalable is the BB10 production going to be?
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