1. DueNorthBB's Avatar
    Here are some numbers to help put things into perspective.

    To give you some benchmarks, the original Samsung Galaxy Note sold 1 million units in two months. 10 million in about 8 months. It was considered a success for their first product.

    Galaxy Note 3 sold 10 million units in its first two months.

    Given that the Galaxy Note is a large smartphone with a stylus, it would be considered a niche product. The BlackBerry Passport with its square display and touch keyboard will be considered niche also.

    BlackBerry couldn't sell more than 2 million Z10 phones in a quarter when it was released. They sold about 1.1 million (BB10 based phones) this most recent quarter.

    If BlackBerry can sell over 2 million Passport in three month, it would be the most successful BB10 product they have and doing better than what Samsung did with their Galaxy Note when it first got released. Would that be possible? Who knows?

    BlackBerry just needs to sell 10 million phones a YEAR to break even.
    07-22-14 04:08 PM
  2. bambinoitaliano's Avatar
    I doubt they are launching with the same kind of hoopla as Z10. It's going to be a measured launch. So the expected launch number is going to be extremely low. Depending on where and how many countries will see it first. Without the US market of yesteryears, BlackBerry will be lucky to move a few hundred thousands unit on the first week.
    sentimentGX4, Rello and mornhavon like this.
    07-22-14 05:02 PM
  3. crackbrry fan's Avatar
    Don't expect those numbers for the Passport at least not initially, everyone is taking about the Passport but I think you will see those numbers with the hardly talked about "Classic", it will be priced correctly and will replace essentially the BBOS currently in the Enterprise Market.

    Posted via CB10
    bambinoitaliano likes this.
    07-22-14 05:05 PM
  4. The Big Picture's Avatar
    BlackBerry needs to sell 10 million BB10 units a year for the devices to remain relevant.

    I think between september launch and 1st of jan, anything above a million would be considered a success.

    Differentiate or Die
    app_Developer likes this.
    07-22-14 05:17 PM
  5. Witmen's Avatar
    Hopefully Chen has learned from the last guy's mistakes and set his expectations very low.

    How many Passports need to be sold to be considered a "success"?-custom-image.jpg
    Blacklatino and Notcho like this.
    07-22-14 05:18 PM
  6. BroncoVAL's Avatar
    If Mr. Chen told 10M devices are a profitable target then they aim at 2.5M /quarter.
    Logically as Blackberry is rebuilding its market the cheaper Z3 is intended to sell on a larger scale, and the more expensive should be more difficult to move.
    So on 2.5M for example i'd expect 400.000 Passport, 700.000 Classic and 1.4M Z3.
    If by any chance the Passport were to be the bestseller and lead the sale figures that would be not only a big surprise (with the premium price expected) but a great signal and very encouraging for the future as Blackberry's effort to differentiate would be positively greeted.

    Posted via CB10
    app_Developer likes this.
    07-22-14 05:37 PM
  7. DueNorthBB's Avatar
    Since I can't even find the numbers for Z3 sales, it is hard to have any expectations. These numbers will be key in determining if BlackBerry will continue to sell hardware.
    07-22-14 05:38 PM
  8. crackbrry fan's Avatar
    Since I can't even find the numbers for Z3 sales, it is hard to have any expectations. These numbers will be key in determining if BlackBerry will continue to sell hardware.
    According to some reports the first 50k allotment for Indonesia were exhausted at launch ,average that and you should get an idea.

    Posted via CB10
    07-22-14 05:43 PM
  9. kenicolo's Avatar
    This is.not.a consumer device as the note. If 500k are sold then it's mega succes.for.BB

    Posted via CB10
    07-22-14 05:44 PM
  10. Witmen's Avatar
    This is.not.a consumer device as the note. If 500k are sold then it's mega succes.for.BB

    Posted via CB10
    Over what time period though?

    Chen wants to reach the 10 million a year figure and I'm sure they want the Passport to play a big role in helping them reach that total. So hopefully they are doing at least 500k every quarter from just the Passport.
    07-22-14 05:50 PM
  11. Dave Bourque's Avatar
    To the media it will never be considered a success. To BlackBerry if it's profitable it's a success.

    Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.3247
    CpE CKS and Lendo like this.
    07-22-14 05:51 PM
  12. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Over what time period though?

    Chen wants to reach the 10 million a year figure and I'm sure they want the Passport to play a big role in helping them reach that total. So hopefully they are doing at least 500k every quarter from just the Passport.
    Right now, BlackBerry is moving something close to 2 million BB10 phones per quarter. It would be nice to think that the Z3 will sell well enough to bump that up to maybe 2.5 (and at that point, you'll meet that magic "10 million" target).

    The Passport has been announced for a September launch, and if it meets that target it will be available for the entire calendar Q4. I think a reasonable expectation would be 300k for a first quarter, particularly since even if it becomes a runaway hit there's a good chance we'll see supply constraints.
    07-22-14 06:03 PM
  13. DueNorthBB's Avatar
    To the media it will never be considered a success. To BlackBerry if it's profitable it's a success.

    Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.3247
    I would assume the Porsche Design phones are profitable. It isn't profitable enough to carry the company.
    07-22-14 06:05 PM
  14. kenicolo's Avatar
    Over what time period though?

    Chen wants to reach the 10 million a year figure and I'm sure they want the Passport to play a big role in helping them reach that total. So hopefully they are doing at least 500k every quarter from just the Passport.
    Sorry i was thinking 500k a trimester, forgot to mention it.

    Posted via CB10
    Witmen likes this.
    07-22-14 06:05 PM
  15. DueNorthBB's Avatar
    Right now, BlackBerry is moving something close to 2 million BB10 phones per quarter. It would be nice to think that the Z3 will sell well enough to bump that up to maybe 2.5 (and at that point, you'll meet that magic "10 million" target).

    The Passport has been announced for a September launch, and if it meets that target it will be available for the entire calendar Q4. I think a reasonable expectation would be 300k for a first quarter, particularly since even if it becomes a runaway hit there's a good chance we'll see supply constraints.
    Where did you get the 2 million BB10 devices a quarter? I got 1.1M from CNET.

    BlackBerry sales tumble 64% amid weak BB10 adoption - CNET
    mornhavon likes this.
    07-22-14 06:08 PM
  16. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    To the media it will never be considered a success. To BlackBerry if it's profitable it's a success.

    Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.3247
    Well, the Passport may never be a success not only to the media but many of Blackberry's partners as well. Some fans on here think 500k units in a quarter will be excellent performance. To many carriers such as T-Mobile, Verizon or AT&T, even the optimistic number may not justify a business relation with Blackberry.

    So it needs to be understood that while the absolute numbers comparing the Passport to phones such as the Galaxy Note may sound ridiculous, they are not altogether irrelevant as well and have implications for Blackberry,
    mornhavon likes this.
    07-22-14 06:14 PM
  17. aha's Avatar
    Bell Canada already stopped selling Q5. What can you read from that?

    Posted via CB10 with Z30STA100-5/10.2.1.3175
    lift and sentimentGX4 like this.
    07-22-14 06:18 PM
  18. propeller10's Avatar
    I think the combination of classic and passport sales will do the trick. Classic just might outsell passport, Cus it's a modern phone for traditional users. Also add z10, q10, Z30 and z5 sales to that because they aren't going to disappear suddenly .

    Posted via CB10
    07-22-14 06:20 PM
  19. insandouts's Avatar
    It is very difficult to move any significant number of units if most wireless providers do not stock BB anymoe and if BB do not advertise them.
    Coachbulldog likes this.
    07-22-14 06:25 PM
  20. DueNorthBB's Avatar
    Bell Canada already stopped selling Q5. What can you read from that?

    Posted via CB10 with Z30STA100-5/10.2.1.3175
    Q5 isn't really popular. I don't believe that many were produced.
    07-22-14 06:34 PM
  21. DueNorthBB's Avatar
    It is very difficult to move any significant number of units if most wireless providers do not stock BB anymoe and if BB do not advertise them.
    I just wish that BlackBerry learned from their previous mistake in letting the carrier do the launch and let Passport be their first phone to sell at launch date online. This would allow them to have the most control.

    I would also allow their selected partner carriers that support them (NOT T-Mobile) get exclusive launch access.

    I believe the carriers would have a wait and see approach. This would mean that it should be released at BlackBerry stronghold countries first to prove demand... which would mean, not the US. Once it is shown to be a success, I believe the US carriers would line up then.
    CpE CKS and ghundiraj like this.
    07-22-14 06:43 PM
  22. app_Developer's Avatar
    A million in the 1st quarter would be an enormous success and I think we'd be talking about the comeback of BB.

    500k would be perfectly fine, and a "success", if not an overwhelming one.



    Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk
    Thunderbuck and ptpete like this.
    07-22-14 06:45 PM
  23. CpE CKS's Avatar
    Then the production in its first months will be crucial. Producing too much may cause loss rather than gain. And yes, you guys are correct that BlackBerry needs to prove that the Passport deserves it's luxurious value. If they can't do that, no one's going to see it worth their money. And that would mean failure.

    PH - BlackBerry 10 - Z10 - deal with it
    07-22-14 06:59 PM
  24. abwan11's Avatar
    If Chen and company pull something out of their hat pre launch, get some excitement going, things could swing. The predictions I'm reading through the posts, although sensible, are boring.

    Posted via CB10
    Skyforever likes this.
    07-22-14 07:01 PM
  25. TioPepe78's Avatar
    If they sell 500,000 it would be great, 250,000 would be good, anything over 250K is good, in one year basis.
    07-22-14 07:16 PM
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