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  1. Switch13's Avatar
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    Default A different take on RIM troubles

    I'll preface this discussion by saying that I've been a Blackberry user since the pager days - I have a Blackberry, I'm a BES administrator and I work with about 100 devices daily.

    So....

    There's been a lot of commentary as of late on RIM's fate. RIM's stock price is now solidly in the single digits trading around $9.65.

    The question - Is RIM in a death spiral?

    Here are things to consider.

    1. RIM's stock price is eroding quickly
    2. RIM is forecast to be unprofitable until 2014
    3. RIM is projected to burn though $500m of its $2,500m cushion through the end of this year
    4. RIM's market share (in the US is degrading)
    5. One would say that RIM's current base is solidly business users (in the US)
    6. RIM's strengths are data compression and data security, period.

    Here are the issues I see going forward.

    Developers - who will spend money on a platform that is split into two OS's (7,10 and now Android). Is losing market share, is mostly business user oriented and has uncertain footing?

    Businesses - will they spend money on a whole new infrastructure to support Blackberry Fusion (for Bb 10x devices) since it will not be supported on Bes 5.03. Will businesses be willing to buy licenses for Fusion and 10x devices. Will businesses be better off allowing their users to pick their own handheld and manage those thus paying for one device instead of two in many cases?

    So... October 2012, will the Blackberry float, or will it sink? The way I see it now, it will sadly sink. Businesses need to cut costs and they'll entertain RIM to a point. I think you'll see some hold onto their Bes 5.03 infrastructure and take a long time to decide if the new devices are worth investing into. RIM will force those businesses eventually to make a choice as 7x devices become more limited going forward. Businesses do have a lot of questions for RIM going forward and there is a lot of uncertainty in their voices.

    "The problem is, RIM is in the spiral and trying to pull up on the controls to get out of it. This is only tightening the spiral. They must level their wings." Brute stubbornness is not helping their situation.

    The way things currently look, Blackberry will survive is as a email encryption network that businesses license. Microsoft has a golden opportunity here to do what it should have done 10 years ago. Buy RIM, and put their technology to use on Exchange and Mobile Phone. If they're smart, they'll also figure out how to get it to work and license it to Android and IOS devices.

    This is why you'll see Good Tech do, for a lack of a better word, good, this year. While RIM spirals.

    So, what are your thoughts? Is RIM in a position of compounding problems? Is there a way out? Is the damage done? Are the "Palmed"?

    I don't mean to sound negative, but I certainly hope we'll get better than expected news from RIM on June 28. I've lost my confidence in RIM's hardware and OS, but their secure email network is what I need to live on.
    kevinnugent likes this.
  2. kbz1960's Avatar
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    Default

    Yes they are but just before the crash they will get the engine started and will be able to pull up in the nick of time.
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  3. menaknow's Avatar
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    #3  

    Default

    IMO,

    I don't agree with a few of your points.

    For the developer portion, BB7 will be retired down the line. But they have done a good job ensuring frameworks like Blackberry WebWorks can target both BB7 and BB10. This way you shouldn't have to code twice.

    If you write in Java however, your screwed .

    EDIT (thanks polytope):
    Quote Originally Posted by polytope View Post
    Not entirely screwed if you can stomach the thought of developing Android apps for BB10.
    Also, your looking too much as if a business will never want to spend a dime. I understand businesses are cutting back (and I see it here at work as they are laying off people sadly).

    But for a business to make revenue, it will incur expenses. If they want there employees to focus on making sales and operations and not learning a new phone system or dealing with outdated technology they will spend.

    And if a business moves off of BES to another solution, there will be a cost. From the dollar per hour they have to pay an employee to turn off a BES server to turn on a exchange server.

    If they decide to upgrade to BES with Mobile Fusion there will be a cost also.

    As for Microsoft, they always have a golden opportunity, they had one with Exchange, they had it with SharePoint and they now have it with Windows Phone. However, you will always find people do not want to give up what works for them.

    RIM will still exist. In what form is the biggest question we all want to know...
    Last edited by menaknow; 06-04-2012 at 04:41 PM. Reason: Polytope's comment
  4. Griffin2012's Avatar
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    How is this thread any different from the 1000 other speculation threads? Buy RIM stock and hope for the best. I believe RIM will endure this onslaught of negative press. Everybody loves it when the underdog wins! RIM = Rocky Balboa.
  5. polytope's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by menaknow View Post
    IMO,

    I don't agree with a few of your points.

    For the developer portion, BB7 will be retired down the line. But they have done a good job ensuring frameworks like Blackberry WebWorks can target both BB7 and BB10. This way you shouldn't have to code twice.

    If you write in Java however, your screwed .
    Not entirely screwed if you can stomach the thought of developing Android apps for BB10.

    Actually, that might not be entirely crazy since you can develop for both Android and BB10. Of course, the question is when will BB10, if ever, support ICS or Jelly Bean apps.
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  6. TheScionicMan's Avatar
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    We are probably going with Mobile Fusion instead of one of the 3rd party options for managing other platforms. RIM has proven itself solid in this area.
    "Distrust and caution are the parents of security." -Benjamin Franklin
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    #7  

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    I don't see all businesses as needing to cut costs if the costs are tax deductable. Lots of businesses are making record profits and need to spend.

    Sent from my BlackBerry Bold 9930 using Tapatalk
  8. Switch13's Avatar
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    Default

    I'll say this. We have a lot of pressure to diversify. iPads, iPhone, android devices all coming at us. Many users who carry two or three devices now (iPhone, Blackberry, iPad is typical).

    I would be happy with Fusion if I didn't have to buy into RIM like I was a new customer. I'd want an upgrade path discount or a license conversion. The only reason I'd guarantee I'd go Fusion is that way.

    Active Sync isn't bad - isn't fantastic either when we talk data security or compression. However, it's free with Exchange. Technically, Fusion uses Active Sync, however its encrypted through RIM's network.

    Good Technologies is an option - To me, they're like RIM in many ways except they adapt to others platforms. So, it'd be a complete swap out, but so is Fusion with a fairly similar cost but potentially cheaper devices and less the monthly BES service fee, but with the addition of a larger data fee. So, its basically a wash unless I can get users down from 2-3 devices to 1 or 2 and start saving money at the carrier level.

    So, we're back to what RIM is valuable for, to me - their security network. Keyboards on the devices are nice - but they're also my number 1 failure point on blackberries.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Switch13 View Post
    I would be happy with Fusion if I didn't have to buy into RIM like I was a new customer. I'd want an upgrade path discount or a license conversion. The only reason I'd guarantee I'd go Fusion is that way.
    As you stated RIM's stock price is falling. But the bright spot for them is the services side like Fusion. But still, if there is enough defection to other platforms, RIM might need to compromise on Fusion pricing at some point. Perhaps offer a break to customers in your situation to buy in.
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    I believe there's a point you're missing here in RIM's Enterprises strategy.
    [In advance, please excuse some technical simplistic description]
    What we call the NOC (Network Operation Center) whose role is to handle data compression/encrypting and security (identity) is now extended with the Blackberry Business Cloud Services, including Fusion and Balance.

    How do I read this ?
    1. This may be an excellent "try and buy" option for large companies that want to validate the POC (proof of concept) of BB10 capability and/or maintain mixed OSes devices, including non BB ones. They may choose to remain mixed (owned BES + Cloud), get the whole solution owned or ... go to full cloud. This last option would be a huge plus for RIM ...
    2. For smaller companies (including the smallest ones), mixed with MS office365, this will be the opportunity to get the mobile collaborative efficiency "in a snap" and at a very affordable rate (say $5/user/month). Still with BYOD and balance. No more uncertain DIY: solid, safe and efficient. No infrastructure, no dedicated techs ...

    I hope RIM will learn how to market it:if I refer to your questions it's not brilliant yet.
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 06-05-2012 at 03:19 AM.
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  11. Switch13's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Superfly_FR View Post
    2. For smaller companies (including the smallest ones), mixed with MS office365, this will be the opportunity to get the mobile collaborative efficiency "in a snap" and at a very affordable rate (say $5/user/month). Still with BYOD and balance. No more uncertain DIY: solid, safe and efficient. No infrastructure, no dedicated techs ...

    I hope RIM will learn how to market it:if I refer to your questions it's not brilliant yet.
    I'll agree - RIM's strength data compression and security (via the NOC).

    I'll tell you first hand though, Office 365 and Blackberry is a worthless experience. We dropped it because Microsoft has no control over the BES environment - It's owned by RIM and managed by RIM. I've ended up 3 times in a ticket war between RIM and Microsoft as they blame each other for why a Blackberry isn't syncing. Microsoft basically closes your ticket and opens one with RIM. RIM and Microsoft are supposed to have a back office relationship to fix problems - but that process takes days. I had one blackberry user down for 5 days while Microsoft and Blackberry compared log files looking for the problem. (Yes, this was this year once Microsoft officially gave the Nod to use blackberry and not the beta period.) The end result - Grumpy, pissed off users. If you do Office 365, the only viable option is Active Sync (if you want to keep your job - imho).

    A trial of Fusion would be nice though. It would also be nice if they had it as a prebundled VM, to save me some time
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    I would like to see them offer bb7 phones to new enterprise customers....say purchase 100 licenses get 100 bb7 devices for $50 each, may help them get more new customers on BES. May also help businesses that don't want to go the BYOD route and would keep them from having to manage multiple platforms. Would also help RIM get rid of some of there dead inventory. Just a thought....

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