[timmy t]

Just for fun, I am going to try to predict the marketshare of the top 4 phone ecosystems 2 years out.

Microsoft and RIM will total around 25%
Apple will itself have 25%
Android will have 50%

Microsoft is too big to give up and it has compatibility with some of its desktop software going for it. It can also do focus groups to determine what has to be changed to make it more appealing.
RIM will do well because of its security and Balance features as well as its up-to-date User Experience. It is also going to do well because people think of it as one of the big players. even though it has fallen back for a couple of years or so.
My combination of the two percentages is just an indication that I think the bottom two ecosystems will grab around 1/4 of the market due to their superior security and other business suitability issues.
Apple will continue to sucker 25% of the population who have spent large quantities of money for iTunes and apps.
Android will continue to dominate in the lower price point phone market where people are just looking for a phone that can surf the net and play some cheap games. Some techies will also buy their higher price phones due to the higher hardware specs. This does not mean that the companies that sell the phones will be making a lot of money off of them because the phones will be comoditised much like HDTVs now are.

[Dapper37]

Ok just for fun!
But to lump BB with Wp is a bit of a weak prediction.
I say;
RIM= 12 to 15% and climbing
WP= 7 to 8%
apple= 20% flat, declining
android 50 % flat, declining
misc OS's the remaining %

[travaz]

Ok just for fun!
But to lump BB with Wp is a bit of a weak prediction.
I say;
RIM= 12 to 15% and climbing
WP= 7 to 8%
apple= 20% flat, declining
android 50 % flat, declining
misc OS's the remaining %

I would agree with one exception. I think that Android will add at the exspense of Apple . I really think WP8 is 7 to 8% will be interesting to see. i really believe that BB10 will take from several platforms, which is a nice scenario.

[kevinnugent]

Do you honestly think Apple won't do everything in their power (and $110bn cash) to keep market share?

I'd predict:

Apple 25%
Android 40%
RIM 15%
Microsoft 15%
Other 5%

[missing_K-W]

On that Day. Both Tim Cook and Steve Balmer won't be able to keep their hands off BB12

[Dapper37]

Ok just for fun!
But to lump BB with Wp is a bit of a weak prediction.
I say;
RIM= 12 to 15% and climbing
WP= 7 to 8%
apple= 20% flat, declining
android 50 % flat, declining
misc OS's the remaining %

Opps. That's my one year out prediction.

RIM = 18 to 22%
WP = 8 to 10%
Apple = 18 to 20%
Android = 40 to 45%
Other = 3 to 16%

That's my 2 years out prediction. It includes connected cars and m2m.
I also believe apple to start waisting money just like ms has for years and they will look like a tired old out of shape man. At least by then that process will have started!

[Roo Zilla]

Android - 76%
iOS - 14%
WP - 5%
BB - 5%
Other - less than 1%

In 2 years though, it's expected that about 1.7 billion smartphones will be sold. Almost 350 million of them in China, where Android is approaching 90%. BB gross sales will increase to almost double what it is now, although their market share will probably remain very close to what it is now. That's assuming BB10 is accepted by the market. China's adoption of cheap WP phones could affect WP market share, but that's a big if. They might not like it. The commoditization of the smartphone is going to become reality in 2013, and by 2014 it should be in full swing. Android will lead that charge. iOS will be severely restricted by price, as developed markets reach saturation, but they'll still sell over 200 million phones in 2014.

[jakie55]

My heart says RIM 25%, but I think Roozilla is probably more accurate. As long as we are profitable and increasing gross sales.

[ibpluto]

I think folks are more optimistic about Android than what the platform warrants. To fragmented, too much security risk to where we are heading with m2m and nfc. They will be the biggest loser in a couple years IMO. I even predict companies like Samsung turning to RIM to license BB10

[timmy t]

"But to lump BB with Wp is a bit of a weak prediction."

Ok. I was thinking Windows and BB 10 would both get between 10 and 15%. I would prefere BB 10 to be the phone with 15%.
Of course, with a higher ASP and increasing smartphone market, RIM can be very profitable with 15% of marketshare.
Add to that the money they will get paid for use of their NOC, which might come from M2M traffic or, how about this, secure electronic healthcare records?
RIM should go after the Ontario government to show how they can make this information more secure.

[anon(257429)]

I think folks are more optimistic about Android than what the platform warrants. To fragmented, too much security risk to where we are heading with m2m and nfc. They will be the biggest loser in a couple years IMO. I even predict companies like Samsung turning to RIM to license BB10

What does fragmentation have to do with adoption rates? The so called fragmentation is due to the increase of adoption rates.

[ibpluto]

What does fragmentation have to do with adoption rates? The so called fragmentation is due to the increase of adoption rates.

Exactly.........

[vespajet]

What does fragmentation have to do with adoption rates? The so called fragmentation is due to the increase of adoption rates.

There's a lot of crap Android devices out there, especially the low-end market in which the products bear some no-name brand on it couple with a few GB of storage and running one of the earlier 2.X builds. Then again, what do you expect for $49 tablet bought at Big Lots? Android's success has been because it is an open source OS and it will also be its' eventual downfall.......

[tiziano27]

Market has inertia, so my predictions:

Android: 65%
iOS: 20%
Windows Phone: 9%
BlackBerry: 4%
Firefox Os, Bada, Tizen, Jolla, etc. : 2%

[madman0141]

On that Day. Both Tim Cook and Steve Balmer won't be able to keep their hands off BB12

Actually we will be waiting on another update for BB10.

[kfh227]

1) Android (45%)
2) RIMM (30%)
3) Apple (20%)
4) Windows P current and future versions (5%)

[fernandez21]

Android - 45%
Apple - 30%
RIM - 15%
Microsoft - 5%
Other - 5%