Dec 31st, 2014 - a prediction
Just for fun, I am going to try to predict the marketshare of the top 4 phone ecosystems 2 years out.
Microsoft and RIM will total around 25%
Apple will itself have 25%
Android will have 50%
Microsoft is too big to give up and it has compatibility with some of its desktop software going for it. It can also do focus groups to determine what has to be changed to make it more appealing.
RIM will do well because of its security and Balance features as well as its up-to-date User Experience. It is also going to do well because people think of it as one of the big players. even though it has fallen back for a couple of years or so.
My combination of the two percentages is just an indication that I think the bottom two ecosystems will grab around 1/4 of the market due to their superior security and other business suitability issues.
Apple will continue to sucker 25% of the population who have spent large quantities of money for iTunes and apps.
Android will continue to dominate in the lower price point phone market where people are just looking for a phone that can surf the net and play some cheap games. Some techies will also buy their higher price phones due to the higher hardware specs. This does not mean that the companies that sell the phones will be making a lot of money off of them because the phones will be comoditised much like HDTVs now are.
- 12-31-2012, 07:59 PM #2
Ok just for fun!
But to lump BB with Wp is a bit of a weak prediction.
RIM= 12 to 15% and climbing
WP= 7 to 8%
apple= 20% flat, declining
android 50 % flat, declining
misc OS's the remaining %
- 12-31-2012, 11:39 PM #3
- 01-01-2013, 06:04 AM #6
RIM = 18 to 22%
WP = 8 to 10%
Apple = 18 to 20%
Android = 40 to 45%
Other = 3 to 16%
That's my 2 years out prediction. It includes connected cars and m2m.
I also believe apple to start waisting money just like ms has for years and they will look like a tired old out of shape man. At least by then that process will have started!
- 01-01-2013, 07:42 AM #7
Android - 76%
iOS - 14%
WP - 5%
BB - 5%
Other - less than 1%
In 2 years though, it's expected that about 1.7 billion smartphones will be sold. Almost 350 million of them in China, where Android is approaching 90%. BB gross sales will increase to almost double what it is now, although their market share will probably remain very close to what it is now. That's assuming BB10 is accepted by the market. China's adoption of cheap WP phones could affect WP market share, but that's a big if. They might not like it. The commoditization of the smartphone is going to become reality in 2013, and by 2014 it should be in full swing. Android will lead that charge. iOS will be severely restricted by price, as developed markets reach saturation, but they'll still sell over 200 million phones in 2014.
- 01-01-2013, 09:14 AM #8
My heart says RIM 25%, but I think Roozilla is probably more accurate. As long as we are profitable and increasing gross sales.Q 10 for the win!
(WHITE Z 10, on 10.2.1.537 and Nexus 4, both sold)
Playbook 64 gb wifi
Galaxy tab P 1000 with cyanagen 9
- CrackBerry Genius
01-01-2013, 09:30 AM #9
- 2,006 Posts
I think folks are more optimistic about Android than what the platform warrants. To fragmented, too much security risk to where we are heading with m2m and nfc. They will be the biggest loser in a couple years IMO. I even predict companies like Samsung turning to RIM to license BB10
"But to lump BB with Wp is a bit of a weak prediction."
Ok. I was thinking Windows and BB 10 would both get between 10 and 15%. I would prefere BB 10 to be the phone with 15%.
Of course, with a higher ASP and increasing smartphone market, RIM can be very profitable with 15% of marketshare.
Add to that the money they will get paid for use of their NOC, which might come from M2M traffic or, how about this, secure electronic healthcare records?
RIM should go after the Ontario government to show how they can make this information more secure.
- CrackBerry Abuser
01-01-2013, 05:42 PM #13
- 330 Posts
- the tail on the donkey....
- 01-02-2013, 02:20 AM #17
Android - 45%
Apple - 30%
RIM - 15%
Microsoft - 5%
Other - 5%all smartphones are tools.
android = 48pc tool set (you"ll eventually find the tool you need, but some assembly required)
iphone = swiss army knife (most of the tools you need in a small, simple to use package)
blackberry = adjustable wrench (sometimes all you need is a wrench)
windows phone = bionic wrench (its different....but it works)
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