DEBATE: Will hardware be irrelevant in the future? Google Domination?
11-11-12 11:02 AM
- Hello Crackberry Nation
I know from the title this may sound like a Rim Bashing/Google propaganda post, but hear me out. I own a 9900 and 32gb Playbook and will be upgrading to BB10 the day it comes out, so I guess you can call me a "fanboy".However although I would choose my Blackberry over anything else, I am open minded and appreciate all other platforms and believe each have their own merits. So that being said, I like to analyze platforms and predict future trends as I also do some investing with my spare money into tech companies like Apple, Rim, Microsoft etc.
I like everyone else am very excited for the release of BB10, however over past few weeks Google has got me thinking, especially their Nexus 4 and Chromebook devices which have been released. The Nexus 4 is priced at $299 (8GIG) and the Chromebook starts at $249. The reason why the devices are so cheap is because Google is subsidizing the cost, the Nexus 4 for example will cost over $600 if it wasn't subsidized. The reason why Google is subsidizing so much is so they can get you onto their servers and its cloud. So you use its services like search, gmail, maps and your life pretty much revolves around Google. So they are offering very capable devices for low prices to entice consumers in. Google's visioning a world where you life is stored on one account, no more syncing between devices, no more lost data it will all be up in the cloud. There is also the possibility Google will hand out devices for free, just so you use their services.
Now I know Blackberry 10 will be awesome, but in the future will it be relevant? Will Apple be Relevant? Will any hardware maker be relevant? I mean lets use Apple as an example. They sell iPhones/iPads in record numbers and are making tons of money. But if Google pushes through with this whole cloud networking, why would anyone buy Apple products? I mean yes there will be people who buy still but the numbers will be decreased a lot. The reason being even Apple wont be able to compete with free devices or devices at super low cost, I dont think any hardware company can. Because the majority of Apple's revenue come from device sales not the app store and software. And in particular of hardware is memory. 16gb iPhone 5 is $699, $799 for 32gb, $899 for 64gb. With google buying on board memory will be useless since everything will be up in the cloud, so Apple's whole business model, Rims business model will become obsolete. Now I know right now its not possible for things to be stored in cloud and accessed instantly, but cellular networks will improve and I am thinking of the future here (whose to say its not possible, we were using edge 3 years ago). I know Rim and Apple have clouds, but its not the same as Google's. Google is an actual cloud, where as Apple and Rim are more download queue organizers.
So I know this post may sound confusing since I am not the best at structuring, but in summary, will it be join Google or die? Since really, how are hardware producers like Rim and Apple supposed to compete with free or close to free phones?
I really wanted to debate about this subject, so if you guys want any clarifications on my arguments then just comment.11-10-12 11:30 PMLike 1
- Well the theroy has a few holes in it IMO. For one people are such that when any one company that dominates to the degree you believe posible, at some point before that happens we start to shun them. Next we start to sue them for monopolistic practices. We the people and our governments agree on that much. So no, won't happen. Thats not to say they can't make lots of money and be very successful but there is no winner take all thats going to happen in this world.
The Operating System of the future that is going to be the most successfull will be the one that plays well with others, all others. IMO. Google does play well with other sometimes. Its an area they could work on.
If operating system X serves a prupose and fills a need it will be successful, the OS's that refuse to integrate might be in trouble!11-11-12 12:02 AMLike 2
- Its funny how many people see things like the cloud as the current end all and be all yet so many companies are successful in the cloud right now. Its an area that mobile OS's need easy access to but they don't need to own them. Nothing wrong with owning them. Having them securely and easily comunicate with eachother seems just as important even more so. The cloud is already becoming a commodity not easy to monetize.11-11-12 12:06 AM
- Google's use of advertising to subsidize other businesses is an issue for any competitor. Microsoft and RIM are both damaged by it. Amazon is disrupting in the same manner by using retail and services profits.
RIMs equivalent to some degree is and has been the fees tied to BlackBerry services. Very high margin income that allows for the hardware to be less profitable as is needed. This is the big question with BB10:
Will RIM find a way to grow their services revenue? Will they innovate and introduce services that are unique and that address a need? BlackBerry Balance is the best example of this kind of thinking. I am interested to see what else they have up their sleeve.
Sent from my BlackBerry 9930 using Tapatalk11-11-12 12:20 AM
- Yes you bring up very good points with society and our privacy. However for some reason I think people will care more about convenience than if Google knows personal information. I know some people will be against it, but the average person doesn't have problems using Google services and will most likely be ok with having all their information on one google account. My argument is people will become accustomed and expect where regardless of device, if you sign into a google account, it becomes theirs. All apps, songs, content loaded and available instantly.11-11-12 12:36 AM
- 11-11-12 01:11 AM
- Thats a great thought OP. I like how you are thinking ahead. I definitely agree hardware will definitely become less important (look at apple right now, specs don't mean much). I think things will evovle to wear we just have different screen displays for our own personal information.
Where I disagree with you is one google being the dominant player. I honestly thing google is screwed. I just read in the past day something about them not even being able to charge any fees for android since its derived from free software. This is just one part of it. Although right now people are ignorant to the fact that google data-mines I'm fairly certain that will change. If you asked someone if they wouldn't mind a camera places inside their house for a company to monitor and collect data on them I'm pretty sure they wouldn't like that. To me googles good moves have been maps (uncertain how well they make money off this) and youtube which I'm pretty sure they will likely make a killing off of. I'm pretty sure android isn't doing too much for them financially. Its easily forked and I doubt they make much off mobile ads right now. There opportunity to make money right now is off handsets which is funny because as per your OP in the long run thats not the greatest route to make money. So I guess my point as for their software becoming profitable and the future I don't see it happening. I don't see anyoen buying chromebooks and I'm not even sure what operating system that is.
But as to your OP this is why I think RIM can/will dominate. It just depends how they go about it. I think the other big player will be microsoft. I don't see apple doing well, obviously since they are completely a closed system, but even if they weren't I don't see their software as a desireable option for licensing .
TL; DR version
Agree its going to be software,
Disagree on it being google and I actually think google is pretty much screwed as it comes to OSes. They may provide content with youtube and Maps but I don't see them as a big player in the future. Androids prepared for a massive falll.11-11-12 01:59 AM
- 11-11-12 02:00 AM
- With the tiered data plans and all these days, having the majority of your data in the cloud could get expensive, depending on usage. I think there's still a place for hardware storage for some time.
People need to realize nothing in life is free. You pay for it one way or another - money, information, eyeballs on advertising, service commitment etc.11-11-12 02:22 AM
- This has me thinking now as i just read something about google possibly doing wifi for free in major citys ,of course the catch is you have to use its services to use it ,the article also mentioned MS possibly looking into this as well.
Good topic OP
Sent from my BlackBerry By Choice Tapatalk11-11-12 03:14 AM
- Regarding Google. Remember it is the carriers that are the toll booth, they don't like one or two device manufacturers to dominate because then they start to loose control. They can turn off your access to customers in a heartbeat. Now that the carrier's have spent a ton of energy getting their mobile payments businesses ready they will want to use them. That means promoting NFC and suppressing non SIM card based solutions like Google wallet.11-11-12 11:02 AM
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