[trwallace]

This is an easy one any one in the financial side of things can tell you exactly what he is doing. i think if you step back and look at the statement as well you can kind of figure it out. He as a CEO wants to relay the fact that its a tough job ahead. He also wants to lower expectations to analysts and financial managers. If they see that he says oh things are great and we are on an upward bell curve the analysts take that to mean we are turning the ship around things are working and sales are up. This gives them no time to retool or reorganize. The ability to give the company lots of time to fix whats broken is where he is going with this. So he tells them no profits until 2016 and basically its going to be touch and go. So when the financial results do come out and things are a not looking great on paper he just lowered the expectation for those people to expect that type of result. This way there are no downward surprises which can just crush the stock and send the financials reeling downward. He has given the company time. Time to get things in order. Instead of being quarter to quarter which most companies are he has been able to say look this is a long process and dont expect things to change in the near future. its actually what a CEO is suppose to do. He is doing it well. Playing his poker face like a true champion and by the way the 50/50 thing is not the case if its the flip of a coin that the company survives I can tell you he doesnt take the job. The only way he stays on is if he sees some big time positives. So minimum 60/40 if not better. The 50/50 thing just makes any positives that much more positive. This also means any upward surprise in earnings or profit brings bigger gains because thats not what people are expecting. So thats a little crash course in CEO speak 101. Its been done before but being the face of the company thats what the CEO does. He is able to buy time or change opinions or set expectations. The CEO actually does very little of the heavy lifting he is the front man the spokesman and the strategy builder. John Chen understands the game and he plays it well. He has been through this type of thing before so he knows what cards to play and when. Right now he is playing some early cards and by the sounds of the reaction they appear to be working well.

[NaijaBerry]

Accountability, Trust, Commitment and being Realistic. At least everyone knows where they are for real, as opposed to last year being told so many things that were not the real picture of how bad things were at BBRY, and being hit with a bombshell! We have a new dispensation that listens and acts, I've just seen a post about the attachment size of BBM addressed and released in beta zone. What would make customers nervous at this stage is telling them everything is splendid!

[Omnitech]

OK, here is something strange. When I viewed this original video interview before all this 50/50 chance of survival talk hit the press today, it was not worded as such. The interviewer asked Mr.Chen, "What are the chances of becoming MORE than a niche player?" To be clear: Mr Chen was NOT saying that BlackBerry had only a 50/50 percent chance of survival, but rather it had a 50/50 chance of becoming more than a niche player.
Now the strange part, when I viewed the video interview today, they took that line out and changed the wording. His answer does not include anything about 50/50 like it did yesterday? Here is the video.....its right at the end.

Changing BlackBerry's fortunes - FT Business - Companies & Management Video - FT.com

Maybe they did edit it, because I just watched the video (linked from Cnet article someone else posted a link to - probably the same one above) and that statement is NOT there.

I vaguely recall that Chen said something like that at one point in the last month or two, but I can't say where I saw it.

He should probably be a little more careful, there seem to be a lot of people on a hair-trigger looking for any little thing to sensationalize about this company, just like that stupid leaked "94%" figure from the T-Mobile internal memo that got picked up by every bear and BB hater everywhere as the latest excuse to claim the company is failing.

Never. Ending.

[Omnitech]

I think it is smart because it takes the bad press away from the media. If they are going to run with it now the number is 50/50 and most of the nay sayers havnt been that optimistic. So their pessimism ball has effectively been removed.

Interesting idea.

[richardat]

I think it's funny that a lot of posters who would, and have, screamed for blood when a fellow poster made such a statement, are now suddenly "realistic" (its not - this is CEO talk, the chances of regaining status as a big player aren't anywhere near 50), and applauding of the statement.

As to confidence, no, it won't help at all - but it probably won't hurt. Outside bb fandom, everyone who knows the industry knows the score. Theres a reason bb couldn't find a buyer even at what was a liquidation price . all serious big buyers will already have been factoring this into their decisions - saying it will improve Chen's credibility. Frankly, anything more optimistic (as I said this was already pushing it to the extreme) would simply make him a laughingstock to most of the industry - though a hero among fans.

[Kennedy.L]

Where did he say that?

Don't just post a headline, show where he actually said it.

Posted via CB10

Oh he said it.

[sentimentGX4]

I think it is smart because it takes the bad press away from the media. If they are going to run with it now the number is 50/50 and most of the nay sayers havnt been that optimistic. So their pessimism ball has effectively been removed.

Posted via CB10

50/50 is still very optimistic, IMO.

On the bright side, I don't think this will have a very adverse impact on sales because few individuals outside Crackberry genuinely expect a comeback.

[MADBRADNYC]

Oh he said it.

Wow! Is that really your response to the request of a link for proof?
Even after post #22 by xBURK?

OK, here is something strange. When I viewed this original video interview before all this 50/50 chance of survival talk hit the press today, it was not worded as such. The interviewer asked Mr.Chen, "What are the chances of becoming MORE than a niche player?" To be clear: Mr Chen was NOT saying that BlackBerry had only a 50/50 percent chance of survival, but rather it had a 50/50 chance of becoming more than a niche player.
Now the strange part, when I viewed the video interview today, they took that line out and changed the wording. His answer does not include anything about 50/50 like it did yesterday? Here is the video.....its right at the end.

Changing BlackBerry's fortunes - FT Business - Companies & Management Video - FT.com

[nabil114]

I am not sure what is the objective here but by making statements like this he is for sure going to make enterprise customers not commit to BB10....who in thier right mind will want to make investments where there is a 50% chance of survival...or "It will be a big deal if we save BlackBerry "...
Can someone explain me what is he trying to do here??????

Posted via CB10

He does not know what he is doing.

[Omnitech]

I think it's funny that a lot of posters who would, and have, screamed for blood when a fellow poster made such a statement, are now suddenly "realistic"...

"You guys all..." posts tend to end badly, in my experience.

I'd hope you share my desire to not have threads end badly.

[dusdal]

Oh he said it.

Lol

Posted via CB10

[zorgond]

I watched the video. there was no mention of a 50:50 percent chance of survival.

At 4:30 of the video, the question asked was : " do you think it can be a mass market company ?"
(it refers to BlackBerry)

Dunno how the answer to it were twisted that much


Posted via CB10

[richardat]

"You guys all..." posts tend to end badly, in my experience.

I'd hope you share my desire to not have threads end badly.

First, I never said "you guys all" - I said a "lot" of posters (quotes aside, it's a HUGE qualitative difference), and every single honest person here knows my statement was true (I believe you know this, since you do not object to the content, and I believe any mod/regular here knows that statement is true. It also singles out nobody, though if desired, I could quote people from this thread, along with examples of this behavior from the past - seems rather over the top - and unnecessary.

Second, it's not your place to dictate what I can or cannot say. Third, if you were truly trying to altruistically help, a private message might have been in order , not an inflammatory, without BB content, post like this (how ironic).

If you object to any of the BB-related content in my posts, by all means reply. If you simply want to squelch me, because you don't like what I'm saying, then it WILL end badly. Accept it, take it up with a mod, or yes, go ahead and try to turn it into a war about what can be said, how it can be said, and who can say it - but at least do so acknowledging that YOU are ruining the thread. Don't hide behind passive-aggressive advice.

Now you had your public shot at me, I have had my public reply. If you wish to continue this, I suggest you continue it in a private message.

[xBURK]

I watched the video. there was no mention of a 50:50 percent chance of survival.

At 4:30 of the video, the question asked was : " do you think it can be a mass market company ?"
(it refers to BlackBerry)

Dunno how the answer to it were twisted that much


Posted via CB10

Now, I'm just going on pure memory here and I realize it doesn't really matter. That being said, I believe the video was edited and they definitely removed this question and answer ...." What are the chances of becoming more than a niche player?" Mr. Chen replied 50/50. That's how they reported the 50/50 repose in the first place.
For whatever reason, they took it out.

Posted via CB10

[46Nico40]

50% chance of becoming succcesful. He's being cheeky. You're either succesful or you aren't. 50% chance.

[anon(5828343)]

Given the outright falsehoods (aka lies) told by previous executives, do you honestly believe that Chen could have gotten away saying that there was a better than 50% chance that BBRY could survive? Sure, he could have continued with past practice and signalled how BBRY was exceeding expectations and how BB10 was enjoying strong/excellent demand but he would have been laughed out of the room.

Even 50% is being a little disingenuous but anything less than 50% would have been disastrous.

[Omnitech]

First, I never said "you guys all" - I said a "lot" of posters (quotes aside, it's a HUGE qualitative difference), and every single honest person here knows my statement was true (I believe you know this, since you do not object to the content, and I believe any mod/regular here knows that statement is true. It also singles out nobody, though if desired, I could quote people from this thread, along with examples of this behavior from the past - seems rather over the top - and unnecessary.

Second, it's not your place to dictate what I can or cannot say. Third, if you were truly trying to altruistically help, a private message might have been in order , not an inflammatory, without BB content, post like this (how ironic).

If you object to any of the BB-related content in my posts, by all means reply. If you simply want to squelch me, because you don't like what I'm saying, then it WILL end badly. Accept it, take it up with a mod, or yes, go ahead and try to turn it into a war about what can be said, how it can be said, and who can say it - but at least do so acknowledging that YOU are ruining the thread. Don't hide behind passive-aggressive advice.

Now you had your public shot at me, I have had my public reply. If you wish to continue this, I suggest you continue it in a private message.

Paranoiac ramblings aside, I never claimed to be "dictating what you can or cannot say". That's obvious to anyone who can read.

Keep on truckin', you're doin' a fine, fine job.

[mikeycollins13]

Better than lying imo.

Posted via CB10

Heins just lied away and destroyed brand and got Blackberry slammed with 15 or so class action law suits.

So yes, being honest is refreshing to say the least.

[Omnitech]

Heins just lied away and destroyed brand and got Blackberry slammed with 15 or so class action law suits.

So yes, being honest is refreshing to say the least.

That's an interesting take.

My impression was that Heins may have not been strategically savvy and may have been a bit of a bumbler in some ways, but I never got the impression that he was some kind of pathological liar.

For example, when he proclaimed he thought the company would sell millions of Q10s, I'm inclined to think he really believed that. An error of being unaware of the market, unaware of the products flaws, the public's perception or the company's ability to follow-through on its promises quite possibly, not that he was just throwing BS out there left and right.

What led you to the other conclusion?

[millaria79]

I think they need people like you there

[The Big Picture]

This is an easy one any one in the financial side of things can tell you exactly what he is doing. i think if you step back and look at the statement as well you can kind of figure it out. He as a CEO wants to relay the fact that its a tough job ahead. He also wants to lower expectations to analysts and financial managers. If they see that he says oh things are great and we are on an upward bell curve the analysts take that to mean we are turning the ship around things are working and sales are up. This gives them no time to retool or reorganize. The ability to give the company lots of time to fix whats broken is where he is going with this. So he tells them no profits until 2016 and basically its going to be touch and go. So when the financial results do come out and things are a not looking great on paper he just lowered the expectation for those people to expect that type of result. This way there are no downward surprises which can just crush the stock and send the financials reeling downward. He has given the company time. Time to get things in order. Instead of being quarter to quarter which most companies are he has been able to say look this is a long process and dont expect things to change in the near future. its actually what a CEO is suppose to do. He is doing it well. Playing his poker face like a true champion and by the way the 50/50 thing is not the case if its the flip of a coin that the company survives I can tell you he doesnt take the job. The only way he stays on is if he sees some big time positives. So minimum 60/40 if not better. The 50/50 thing just makes any positives that much more positive. This also means any upward surprise in earnings or profit brings bigger gains because thats not what people are expecting. So thats a little crash course in CEO speak 101. Its been done before but being the face of the company thats what the CEO does. He is able to buy time or change opinions or set expectations. The CEO actually does very little of the heavy lifting he is the front man the spokesman and the strategy builder. John Chen understands the game and he plays it well. He has been through this type of thing before so he knows what cards to play and when. Right now he is playing some early cards and by the sounds of the reaction they appear to be working well.

Thank you that was very insightful and logical.

Q10SQN100-3/10.2.1.2141, Z30, Z10, iP5, SGS3

[The Big Picture]

So what is it between 50/50 change of being more than a niche player or 50/50 chance of a turnaround?

The meaning in those two statements are worlds apart.

Q10SQN100-3/10.2.1.2141, Z30, Z10, iP5, SGS3

[beantownwindsorite]

Talking about the reality of the situation, rather than lying about it will increase chen's credibility among the public. This is a good thing

Posted via CB10