1. the_sleuth's Avatar
    After the latest earnings conference call, BBRY takeover value has dropped dramatically. Here are the reasons:

    1) Service Revenue is dropping dramatically as users switch from BB7 to BB10 devices
    2) BYOD trend in enterprise and increased competition from Mobile-Device-Management alternatives
    3) BlackBerry no longer providing key statistic--number of subscribers going forward
    4) High-end smartphone market fully saturated in developed countries
    5) Gross margins dropping from 40% to 36%
    6) BlackBerry management not providing future guidance / visibility in highly competitive market
    7) Smartphone hardware is a commodity

    Rays of hope:
    1) $3.1 billion in cash
    2) Q10 and Q5 sales potential for keyboard loyalists
    3) North America revenue grew by 30%
    4) Asia Pacific revenue grew by 35%

    According to my back of the envelope calculation, cash is worth $6.04 per share (515 million outstanding shares) and the software is worth about $2 billion or $4.00 per share for total value of $10.04. The hardware business is worthless in a commodity industry of handsets makers.

    So the current stock price is fairly valued at $10.46. Moreover, until BlackBerry can prove itself in this highly competitive market, then no suitor will pay a premium for the business. The reality is it's comeback will be that much harder.

    Please share your thoughts....
    06-30-13 12:27 PM
  2. belarkan's Avatar
    I believe that as a strategic asset for Canada, the gvt should do a partial nationalization, like 10 to 20% to make sure noone will buy BlackBerry and plunder it.

    Posted via CB10
    lactose likes this.
    06-30-13 03:43 PM
  3. AluminiumRims's Avatar
    Can't you hold your horses a little bit. It's like you must sell your car because it has a puncture.

    Blackberry has enough money to withstand several losses a few quarters ahead. Can't you wait a year first in order to see if their BB10 efforts have been successful or not.

    BB10 have been a huge investment and losses after that can be expected.
    06-30-13 03:53 PM
  4. lawguyman's Avatar
    Can't you hold your horses a little bit. It's like you must sell your car because it has a puncture.

    Blackberry has enough money to withstand several losses a few quarters ahead. Can't you wait a year first in order to see if their BB10 efforts have been successful or not.

    BB10 have been a huge investment and losses after that can be expected.
    I disagree that losses can be expected. Now is the time to sell the product when it is new. It should be selling in much larger numbers than it is.

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 08:16 AM

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