[AhmadCentral]

BlackBerry Devices sold in Q1 FY2016.

BlackBerry 10 devices accounted for approximately 81% of total hardware shipments during the first quarter. This is higher than the 66% share last quarter and shows how BB7 device shipments continue to decline. However the shipment number is down from last quarter and so this shows that BB10 device shipments are stagnant whilst BB7 declines. This is worrying for BlackBerry as they have cleared most stock from channel and theoretically this should have provided a boost in BB10 shipments but there has been no growth which shows there is no demand for new BB10 devices.

Shipments of BB10 devices are down 14% YOY and total shipments are down 31% YOY.

Q1 FY2016
891,000 - BB10
209,000 - BB7

Q4 FY2015
870,000 - BB10
430,000 - BB7

Q1 FY2015
1,030,000 - BB10
570,000 - BB7

The total install base of BlackBerry users is down to 33 million, this is less than 37 million from the quarter prior and down from 50 million one year ago today. The BlackBerry install base continues to decline due to little to no adoption of BB10 and because users are choosing iOS or Android devices over BB10 when moving on from BB7.

BB7 device shipments are expected to continue falling as BlackBerry has long discontinued the OS and demand for older devices has fallen. This quarter BB7 device shipments accounted for 19% of total Blackberry sell in and I expect this share to drop under 15% or even 10% by the end of the fiscal year.

Hardware Revenue for this quarter was $263 million which was down 4% from last quarter and 30% down YOY. ASP was $240 which helped offset some of the losses. However the hardware business now accounts for 40% of total revenue which is worrying as the number keeps decreasing.

I'm currently forecasting that BlackBerry OS 7 device shipments will continue to remain under 20% of total shipments and therefore will struggle to reach 1 million units this year. I expect BlackBerry 10 unit shipments to remain stagnant with only small uplifts during peak periods. For this year I expect BlackBerry 10 shipments to be down YOY from 4.7 million device shipments to 4.0 million device shipments.

[paulwallace1234]

People just don't seem to know they exist, no exposure = no interest = no sales.

[LazyEvul]

The numbers are pretty depressing. Something's gotta change, or we'll be saying goodbye to BlackBerry devices within the next year or two.

[notfanboy]

I expect BlackBerry 10 unit shipments to remain stagnant with only small uplifts during peak periods.

With no new BB10 phones until the end of the year, I expect a steady decline in shipment. The highest sales happen when new devices are introduced. Even then, the first months of the Passport and Classic only resulted in a trivial sales bump.

[sahilp17]

Blackberry devices are headed for the sunset but that won't be the end of blackberry. They're moving to a new direction. I wish Bla1ze or somebody would pin an article about the state and direction of blackberry so people will stop being surprised at the decline of handset sales.

Posted via CB10

[sahilp17]

To my previous post I know Bla1ze and others have touched upon it many times but still seeing people talk about handset sales and stuff and the direction of which the general discussion page goes it's clear that still not many people are fully understanding what direction blackberry is going

Posted via CB10

[AnimalPak200]

I'm amazed you can even convince any manufacturer to make such small amounts of product without it costing a fortune per unit.

Posted via CB10

[anon(8982767)]

U can't make money if people don't know blackberry 10 u need to advertise make advertising of blackberry 10 show the gestures of the hub and what bb10 can do and you'll get people buying blackberry bit u don't adverse the only people that are buying Blackberrys are those people and already own one

[AhmadCentral]

To my previous post I know Bla1ze and others have touched upon it many times but still seeing people talk about handset sales and stuff and the direction of which the general discussion page goes it's clear that still not many people are fully understanding what direction blackberry is going

Posted via CB10

I get what you're saying, but Hardware and Services revenue is declining at a faster rate than Software and Licensing is growing. Hence why total revenue was down 32% YOY. BlackBerry's forecasts for FY2016 say that despite expected growth in Software and Licensing, the size of that segment will still be smaller than both Hardware and Services (separately). Ultimately it doesn't look like BlackBerry will be able to stabilise the handset division in order to achieve revenue growth this fiscal year.

I understand it takes time to grow a new segment but just how long is it going to be until revenue stops decreasing and can Software and Licensing bring the company back to the size it once was?

My current forecast for FY2016 shows that BlackBerry will probably have total revenues of around ~$2.2b this year which is a decrease of around 30% YOY. I'm expecting hardware to see a drop of almost 40% YOY whilst Services sees a drop of more than 50% YOY. Software will grow to over $500m ofc.

[gruv4u]

All of your gloom & doom and negativity! RIM wrecked the BlackBerry image and this BS ain't helping.

"Words manifest themselves". Fall back, support the company in every way you see fit. Or jump ship now.

I like BlackBerry and I believe Mr. Chen is on the right track. It took time to ruin BlackBerry and it's gonna take time to repair BlackBerry.

Let's root for the thing we like. Lord knows nobody else is 

The Z10 STL 100-3 on 10.3.1.27087 BlackBerry owners on AT&T Channel C0032C652

[Troy Tiscareno]

Here's a chart I made based on Ahmad's numbers:

[black_berried]

I'm not sure why we don't see any BB10 advertising. A little can go a long way, even if it just lets people know Blackberry is still out there. Unless it is being left to wither and die off on purpose ...

[BerrySoul]

I simply love BlackBerry 10, and that 's all that matters to me.

  

[rcs36]

Do you wonder what advertising costs? Well, it ain't free, I will tell you that. So what advertising Avenue would you like to see? Print? TV? Let's just go with both and see how much money we can spend....do we see ROI? If we don't, say goodbye to millions......and they can't afford that. It's called stuck between a rock and a hard place.

[moegh]

That's why BlackBerry is making an android device , people will notice bb10 when they see a BlackBerry android based phone, I guess

 CB10 - Q10 - 10.3.2.680 

[mithrazor]

Surprised they're selling that much and even more surprised their user base is in the 30 millions TBH.

Posted via CB10

[AhmadCentral]

Surprised they're selling that much and even more surprised their user base is in the 30 millions TBH.

Posted via CB10

It was 80 million back in 2012.
50 million this time last year
33 million today.

By this time next year we could be looking at ~20 million user base.

[Troy Tiscareno]

At 33M userbase, it means that roughly 22M are still on BBOS (most in emerging markets - Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, South Africa, etc.), but that BBOS number is dropping very fast, and few are moving from BBOS to BB10. I would guess, based on numbers I've seen thrown around, that only about 5M of those BBOS users are enterprise customers in Western nations.

The real worry at this point for BB is how fast the service revenues are dropping off. Handset sales clearly aren't going to make up the difference, and while Chen has done a great job of growing software, he started from so close to zero in that area that the numbers are still pretty small.

And that is why BB can't afford to just blow hundreds of millions on advertising (that may well fail to spur handset sales anyway) - they may need their cash reserves just to survive the transition to software.

[joeragan]

With no new BB10 phones until the end of the year, I expect a steady decline in shipment. The highest sales happen when new devices are introduced. Even then, the first months of the Passport and Classic only resulted in a trivial sales bump.

Classic's overpriced, IMO. A few people I know cancelled their plan to buy it and just stay with their legacy BB.

Z30STA100-2/10.3.2.2252

[RH1Pearl]

The scary part of BlackBerry's hardware business is the average age of users. IOS and Android users are getting younger and younger and BB users are getting older and older. I've seen kids with IPhones or Android as young as 11 years old which was unheard of 10 years ago. Aging user base is not good for BlackBerry's long-term outlook IMO as the young today will carry a platform's business in the next 30 years. BlackBerry's user base I'm guessing on average is over 40 years old maybe even 50.

[Supa_Fly1]

I simply love BlackBerry 10, and that 's all that matters to me.

  

Very foolish. If we don't voice hour favouritism for this platform to help convince BB to BOOST sales and create new market leading devices - not the value proposition it will die in, then there will BE no BB10 devices, and soon it'll also fail as an OS on other devices via hacking community support as the majority of end users do NOT even know about BlackBerry let alone BB10 OS/Platform.

[Bbnivende]

At 33M userbase, it means that roughly 22M are still on BBOS (most in emerging markets - Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, South Africa, etc.), but that BBOS number is dropping very fast, and few are moving from BBOS to BB10. I would guess, based on numbers I've seen thrown around, that only about 5M of those BBOS users are enterprise customers in Western nations.

The real worry at this point for BB is how fast the service revenues are dropping off. Handset sales clearly aren't going to make up the difference, and while Chen has done a great job of growing software, he started from so close to zero in that area that the numbers are still pretty small.

And that is why BB can't afford to just blow hundreds of millions on advertising (that may well fail to spur handset sales anyway) - they may need their cash reserves just to survive the transition to software.

I agree with your figures - Blackberry gave up on their BIS markets way too early.

The truth about BlackBerry and ?unlimited? BIS - Moneyweb

They needed a small phone like the Nokia 530 that was BIS capable. It could have even been a BBOS device. A decent BIS phone would have sold in reasonable numbers and have reduced the rapid drop in service revenues. The only reason there are so many BBOS devices still in use is that they are hand me down phones on cheaper old data plans.

[Q10Bold]

And Chen is still the CEO....how...why??!!
TH sold 4-7mln phones! Good Phones Q and Z...with real BBY feeling(removeable battery, high quality bla bla bla)!!
The Passport is from TH times too!
Chen times- Leap...!!!!!

[early2bed]

I'm amazed you can even convince any manufacturer to make such small amounts of product without it costing a fortune per unit.

The bigger problem is the entirely fixed cost of platform development. Google and Apple can spread their platform R&D costs among literally hundreds of millions of units while BlackBerry will have less than 5 million units to fund the advancement of the OS. Not to mention the tablets and the PCs that also share the same features such as cloud services. It's like bringing your community college intramural football program to compete in the NFL playoffs.

For any given platform feature in development there are teams of developers that can be dedicated to the project. You can't think that BlackBerry engineers are going to be more talented than the ones that work at Apple and Google. I'm sure they have their pick. What do you think is going on at WWDC and Google I/O? Thousands of engineers resting on their laurels waiting for BlackBerry to out innovate them?

Every other thread on this forum says something like "BlackBerry ought to do NFC payments/IoT/healthcare IT/security/biometrics/vehicle infotainment/tablet/wearble/superphone whatever." It's practically delusional when you consider the comparative resources available to do anything.

[tufcustomer]

And yet when rumours of a BlackBerry android device surfaced people were suggesting the rumour going to hurt sales. What sales exactly?

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