04-02-16 05:09 AM
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  1. Maxxxpower's Avatar
    1. BB10 devices sold through to end customers (partly calculated, partly offical numbers, partly estimated):

    Q4FY13 03/2013: 1.0 mio devices A Look Into The Anatomy Of BlackBerry's $1 Billion Loss: More Like An Autopsy Than A Diagnosis - BlackBerry Ltd. (NASDAQ:BBRY) | Seeking Alpha
    Q1FY14 06/2013: 1.6 mio devices (+0.6) A Look Into The Anatomy Of BlackBerry's $1 Billion Loss: More Like An Autopsy Than A Diagnosis - BlackBerry Ltd. (NASDAQ:BBRY) | Seeking Alpha
    Q2FY14 09/2013: 3.3 mio devices (+1.7) A Look Into The Anatomy Of BlackBerry's $1 Billion Loss: More Like An Autopsy Than A Diagnosis - BlackBerry Ltd. (NASDAQ:BBRY) | Seeking Alpha
    Q3FY14 12/2013: 4.4 mio devices (+1.1) BlackBerry 7 phones outselling BlackBerry 10 phones | CrackBerry.com
    Q4FY14 03/2014: 5.5 mio devices (+1.1) Press Release: BlackBerry Reports Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results for Fiscal 2014 | CrackBerry.com
    Q1FY15 06/2014: 7.2 mio devices (+1.7) Analysis: BlackBerry dramatically improves financial performance in Q1 | CrackBerry.com
    Q2FY15 09/2014: 8.9 mio devices (+1.7) BlackBerry Q2 Fiscal 2015 Earnings Call | CrackBerry.com
    Q3FY15 12/2014: unknown, probably 10-10.3 mio devices (+1.1–1.4 mio of 1.9 mio bb7+10 smartphones sold through) BlackBerry announces Q3 Fiscal 2015 Results | CrackBerry.com
    Q4FY15 03/2015: unknown, probably 11.2-11.9 mio devices (+1.2–1.6) (1.6 mio bb7+10 smartphones sold through, 90% of the shipped devices were Classics and Passports) BlackBerry announces Q4 Fiscal 2015 Results | CrackBerry.com https://n4bb.com/blackberry-10-smart...es-q4-fy-2015/
    Q1FY16 06/2015: unknown, probably 12.2-12.9 mio devices (+1.0) (1.3 mio bb7+10 smartphones sold through) http://uk.blackberry.com/content/dam...nformation.pdf
    Q2FY16 09/2015: unknown, probably 13.2-13.9 mio devices (+1.0) (1.1 mio bb7+10 smartphones sold through, 85% of the devices, they recognized revenue on were BB10 devices)
    http://uk.blackberry.com/content/dam...nformation.pdf
    Q3FY16 12/2016: unknown (0.9 mio bb7+10+Android smartphones sold through, no split given) http://uk.blackberry.com/content/dam...nformation.pdf
    Q4FY16 04/2016 unknown (0.7 million smartphones sold through to end customers) http://uk.blackberry.com/content/dam...Statements.pdf
    Q1FY17 06/2016 unknown (0.6 million smartphones sold through to end customers)
    http://uk.blackberry.com/content/dam...nformation.pdf

    FY2013: calculated
    FY2014: 5 mio BB10 devices in total (officially detailed by Blackberry)
    FY2015: estimated, (8.5 mio BB7+10)
    FY2016: estimated/unknown (4.0 mio BB7+10+Android)


    2. BB10 devices the company recongnized revenue on (all numbers official numbers from Blackberrys quarterly financial reports):

    Q4FY13 03/2013: ?
    Q1FY14 06/2013: ?
    Q2FY14 09/2013: 3.7 mio, ? ("Most of the units recognized are BlackBerry 7 devices")
    Q3FY14 12/2013: 1.9 mio, ? ("Most of the devices recognized in the third quarter of fiscal 2014 were BlackBerry 7 devices")
    Q4FY14 03/2014: 1.3 mio, ? ("Most devices recognized were BlackBerry 10 devices")
    Q1FY15 06/2014: 1.6 mio, 65% BB10 = 1.04 mio BB10 devices
    Q2FY15 09/2014: 2.1 mio, 68% BB10 = 1.43 mio BB10 devices
    Q3FY15 12/2014: 2.0 mio, 69% BB10 = 1.38 mio BB10 devices
    Q4FY15 03/2015: 1.3 mio, 66% BB10 = 0.86 mio BB10 devices
    Q1FY16 06/2015: 1.1 mio, 81% BB10 = 0.89 mio BB10 devices
    Q2FY16 09/2015: 0.8 mio, 85% BB10 = 0.68 mio BB10 devices
    Q3FY16 12/2015: 0.7 mio, ? (split unknown)
    Q4FY16 04/2016: 0.6 mio, ? (split unknown)
    Q1FY17 06/2016: 0.5 mio ? (split unknown)

    Additional information:
    Associated Documents
    Financial Documents - UK
    Last edited by Maxxxpower; 06-24-16 at 12:41 AM.
    12-19-14 03:14 AM
  2. rocker_man1's Avatar
    May not be a huge success but they are amazing phones.

    Posted via CB10
    12-19-14 03:43 AM
  3. KingOfQwerty's Avatar
    Well, I will not be surprised if still they report legacy device sales more than BB10, thanks to my everyday sighting. And they are mostly enterprise ones imo as those guys also carry another samsung or else.
    I assume it will take years for them to convert the BB7s to BB10s. And then finally to RIP it.
    12-19-14 03:46 AM
  4. web99's Avatar
    Well, I will not be surprised if still they report legacy device sales more than BB10, thanks to my everyday sighting. And they are mostly enterprise ones imo as those guys also carry another samsung or else.
    I assume it will take years for them to convert the BB7s to BB10s. And then finally to RIP it.
    Actually for at least the last 2 BlackBerry ER calls they did report higher BB10 sales than BBOS. On the September 19th call the ratio was 65% BB10 vs 35% BBOS 7.

    It was even reported on CB

    Posted via CB10 from my spectacular BlackBerry Passport
    mnc76 and AtInsider like this.
    12-19-14 03:56 AM
  5. VR6's Avatar
    Seeking Alpha? Nuff said

    Posted via CB10
    phuoc likes this.
    12-19-14 04:00 AM
  6. bb10adopter111's Avatar
    Does everyone here realize how Seeking Alpha works?

    People (anyone who wants to, basically) write articles without any editorial oversight, and submit them. They are paid whenever someone clicks on the headline to read the article. Writers have several incentives that are inconsistent with accurate, dispassionate analysis:

    1. They are paid for attracting attention with a headline, regardless of content. Once a person clicks on the article to read it, the writer gets paid right or wrong.

    2. Some writers may write an article in the hope of converting others to their investment strategy. They are supposed to disclose their interests, but that's all.

    3. The faster an article is written, the more the writer is paid, on a per hour basis.

    That's not to say that there aren't good writers and thoughtful research and analysis on SA. There is, but there is also a lot of junk.

    Posted via CB10
    12-19-14 08:54 AM
  7. kevets's Avatar
    That would be a big milestone if they were to hit 10. If they haven't... Classic will put them over the edge for sure.
    AtInsider likes this.
    12-19-14 09:00 AM
  8. flyingsolid's Avatar
    Numbers are BB10 devices sold in total (not per quarter) to end customers, not the devices that were only shipped but didn't sell through. Not exactly a success...

    12/2014: revealed today?
    "My guess is the analyst community was expecting better hardware sales, whereas BlackBerry only recognized revenue on 2 million devices." Source: BlackBerry Q3 results show progress towards sustainable profitability | CrackBerry.com

    I don't know the BBOS, BB10 split.
    12-19-14 12:01 PM
  9. Maxxxpower's Avatar
    Users critizicing the "Seeking Alpha" source should differentiate between the analysis and the numbers.
    - The number of BB10 devices sold in FYQ214 (09/2013) is directly from Blackberry itself as the writer of the article links to the official MD&A Blackberry documents. Everybody can verify this number.
    - The numbers for FYQ114 (03/2013) and FYQ413 (06/2013) are calculated from numbers taken from official Blackberry documents. That's because Blackberry tried to hide the numbers of BB10 devices sold to end customers in the first months of BB10 launch because naming them would have revealed the flop of the BB10 launch to everybody. This calculation can be checked by using the official numbers.
    In the subsequent earning calls, Blackberry stated the actual numbers directly or because somebody asked for them during q&a.
    At the time I am writing this posting we don't know how many devices of the 1.9 mio sold through to end customers were BB10 devices. That's not a good sign at all. In fact it seems as if Blackberry has never been able to compensate the declining BB7 sales. Although there are more different BB10 models available than in mid 2013, it seems as if none of seem was a real big seller that did well although many forum members regarded nearly each of the devices as a savior for Blackberry.
    As we don't know how (at the moment) how many BB10 devices were sold during the last quarter we can only estimate. I think it is not unfair to say that since launch nearly 2 years ago around 10-11 mio BB10 were devices sold through to customers. Two facts for the guys who believe that Blackberry smartphones are doing well at the moment:
    -John Chen: Says BlackBerry CEO, "If we ship 10 million phones in a year, we'll be profitable on phones" | CrackBerry.com
    - From Q4/09 to Q4/11, they shipped constantly more than 10 million devices per quarter with a highlight of 14.6 mio devices in Q4/10 although smartphone market exploded and total sale numbers are much higher than they were in 2010.
    Last edited by Maxxxpower; 12-20-14 at 11:07 AM.
    TGR1 likes this.
    12-19-14 12:19 PM
  10. KingOfQwerty's Avatar
    The hardware/service revenue is 50:50. So they have to worry about the device part till their service revenue takes a major portion. So at this point it is pointless to ask device breakdown as BBRY them self has no plan on shutting down legacy business.
    12-20-14 01:13 AM
  11. kevets's Avatar
    They hit 15 million by next quarter I bet.

    Posted via CB10
    12-20-14 10:53 AM
  12. playbookster's Avatar
    Seeking Alpha? Nuff said

    Posted via CB10
    That's like saying good nuff said. Seeking alpha is just a forum for investors. It all depends on which investor we are reading and if he or she is credible.

    Posted via CB10
    12-20-14 01:29 PM
  13. ATI nsider's Avatar
    To date there's approx: 17M BB10 devices sold world wide. By the end of next quarter that number should go beyond 20M easy, due to the Christmas Holiday Season.
    12-21-14 11:09 PM
  14. Maxxxpower's Avatar
    Throwing in numbers without any source doesn't help anybody. In fact, your numbers differ so much from the numbers given by Blackberrys offical fininacial reports that they are clearly fictious.
    mornhavon likes this.
    12-22-14 03:13 AM
  15. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    To date there's approx: 17M BB10 devices sold world wide. By the end of next quarter that number should go beyond 20M easy, due to the Christmas Holiday Season.
    You sure about that? Only 5m were sold through to end customers last year and less than 4 million have been sold in this year so far.

    According to all the official numbers I have, BB10 devices have sold in between 8.92m to 10.72m units worldwide since January 31st 2013.

    Using the prediction model I have I would say the number is north of 10m right now. But thats a guess, all I know is the official number will be inbeteeen the two mentioned above. (Give or take 10% error margin)
    mornhavon likes this.
    12-22-14 03:41 AM
  16. Maxxxpower's Avatar
    Update 03/15: Only approximately 1.6 million BlackBerry smartphones were sold through to end customers.

    EDIT: 90% of the devices were BB10 (1.44 mio devices)
    https://n4bb.com/blackberry-10-smart...es-q4-fy-2015/
    11.4-11.7 mio BB10 devices sold in total

    EDIT 2: 90% of the devices were Classic and Passport (1.44 mio devices). The rest consists of older BB10 and OS7 devices. As we don't know how many OS7 devices were still sold, I'll add all the 1.6 mio devices to my caluclation
    11.6-11.9 mio BB10 devices sold in total

    EDIT 3: 90% of the devices shipped (not sold through) were Classics and Passports. As we don't know how many OS7 devices were sold through, I'll add all the 1.6 mio devices sold through to my calculation as if they all were BB10 as a maximum.
    11.2-11.9 mio BB10 devices sold in total
    Last edited by Maxxxpower; 03-28-15 at 03:49 AM.
    flyingsolid and Donvald like this.
    03-27-15 07:49 AM
  17. JeepBB's Avatar
    Update 03/15: Only approximately 1.6 million BlackBerry smartphones were sold through to end customers.

    EDIT: 90% of the devices were BB10 (1.44 mio devices)
    https://n4bb.com/blackberry-10-smart...es-q4-fy-2015/
    11.4-11.7 mio BB10 devices sold in total
    Chen updated that in the Q&A... "...95% of shipped are latest devices...
    Passport, Classic type..."

    I still find it amusing that Chen can't seem to bring himself to say "BB10". LOL

    Oh, and he wouldn't be drawn on which device was the bigger seller.
    Blacklatino and MarsupilamiX like this.
    03-27-15 09:13 AM
  18. Maxxxpower's Avatar
    Thanks. So, OS7 should be nearly zero. (Are you sure about the 95%? The N4BB updates still says 90, only updates "BB10" to "Classic+Passport")
    MarsupilamiX likes this.
    03-27-15 09:17 AM
  19. JeepBB's Avatar
    Thanks. So, OS7 should be nearly zero. (Are you sure about the 95%? The N4BB updates still says 90, only updates "BB10" to "Classic+Passport")
    Yup, listened to the Q&A myself... Heard him say it... Corrected the questioner (who was talking about sold devices) and clarified that 95% figure applied to shipped devices.
    MarsupilamiX and Maxxxpower like this.
    03-27-15 09:22 AM
  20. Maxxxpower's Avatar
    Well, as we don't have the exact percentage of BB10 devices concerning sold-through devices, I guess I'll just add all of them to the BB10 numbers. The difference is quite low and because no share was given during last quarter results, we have to accept that there is some kind of inaccuracy we can't fix.
    03-27-15 09:26 AM
  21. Old_Mil's Avatar
    Update 03/15: Only approximately 1.6 million BlackBerry smartphones were sold through to end customers.
    This is not good. These numbers have to be on the high end as early adopters grabbed the new devices. Q2 sales will undoubtedly be worse barring price cuts. Annualized - and assuming this pace continues it is still half of the 10 million for hardware profitability mark laid out some time ago.

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-15 09:27 AM
  22. Maxxxpower's Avatar
    it is still half of the 10 million for hardware profitability mark laid out some time ago.
    That's really a big problem and I don't see how they could be able to boost sold-through devices constantly to 2.5 mio per quarter.
    03-27-15 09:33 AM
  23. conite's Avatar
    That's really a big problem and I don't see how they could be able to boost sold-through devices constantly to 2.5 mio per quarter.
    It all depends on what the 50 million BB7 users out there plan to do.

    The consumer diehards alone are probably good for 2-3 million a year.

    I think Chen's 10 million / year is achievable as they regain some of the respect they had previously lost in the enterprise market with the help of the new BES12.

    Time will tell. I'll keep my fingers crossed.

    Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281
    03-27-15 09:42 AM
  24. howarmat's Avatar
    It all depends on what the 50 million BB7 users out there plan to do.

    The consumer diehards alone are probably good for 2-3 million a year.

    I think Chen's 10 million / year is achievable as they regain some of the respect they had previously lost in the enterprise market with the help of the new BES12.

    Time will tell. I'll keep my fingers crossed.

    Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281
    There is nowhere close to 50 million BB 7 users out there anymore. They might be lucky to still have 30 million and most of them would upgrade to the classic is my guess. They sold like 1.5 million BB10 this quarter and that obviously isnt anywhere close to 10 million. They need device sales to really pick up which is hopefully what the classic and leap being cheaper will do
    03-27-15 01:45 PM
  25. conite's Avatar
    There is nowhere close to 50 million BB 7 users out there anymore. They might be lucky to still have 30 million and most of them would upgrade to the classic is my guess. They sold like 1.5 million BB10 this quarter and that obviously isnt anywhere close to 10 million. They need device sales to really pick up which is hopefully what the classic and leap being cheaper will do
    They've only sold about 15 million bb10 devices in the two years they've been out. That leaves about 50 million BlackBerry users still on bb7, no?

    Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281
    03-27-15 01:49 PM
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