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  1. John Arnold's Avatar
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    Default BB10 Prospects - Quick Feedback from a Friend at a Hedge Fund

    Was chatting with a friend at a large hedge fund and asked why he has not bought RIM, given the low price of the stock. He provided 3 quick reasons:

    1) RIM's network, a strategic asset, will add little value to the BB10 phone

    2) This is an ecosystem war - single product companies like RIM are bringing a knife to a gun fight

    3) Companies were abandoning RIM - having to switch servers (to support BB10) will only make things worse

    I own RIM shares, but his first and second point do worry me a bit. Anyone have any substantive data points to refute these points?

    Thank you
  2. Eumaeus's Avatar
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    #2  

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    If BB10 and new directions with QNX are going to return RIM to prosperity in the long run, there is plenty of time to see concrete signs of this, and buy shares accordingly. BB10 has to come out, has to succeed, and has to lead to other successes. I think a year from now it will be possible to make informed medium-term bets. Any bump in the share price now is short-term speculation. You don't need to work at a hedge fund to see this.

    The share price is what it is. It is more fun to anticipate new hardware and software.
  3. TomJasper's Avatar
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    Sell your shares and move on shill,lol. I read ALL your posts, you're a bad actor. This place is filling with fleas the closer BB10 gets to market, jeesh.
    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    Was chatting with a friend at a large hedge fund and asked why he has not bought RIM, given the low price of the stock. He provided 3 quick reasons:

    1) RIM's network, a strategic asset, will add little value to the BB10 phone

    2) This is an ecosystem war - single product companies like RIM are bringing a knife to a gun fight

    3) Companies were abandoning RIM - having to switch servers (to support BB10) will only make things worse

    I own RIM shares, but his first and second point do worry me a bit. Anyone have any substantive data points to refute these points?

    Thank you
    Thanked by 2:
    Lehomer (12-08-2012),  qbnkelt (12-23-2012) 
  4. gorang's Avatar
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    Sounds like your friend is not looking at RIM's plans past phones, he probably doesn't even know or understand that RIM plans on putting their software into cars and connecting them >securely< to their network. They also plan on getting into machine-to-machine communications so that from you phone you can control everything that's happening in your house and car. And let's not forget about device management for BB, iOs and Android devices that they are already in and only getting stronger. So RIM is not bringing knige to the gun fight, they are just preparing for different kind of fight.
    DJM626 and grover5 like this.
  5. TomJasper's Avatar
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    So many applications it boggles the mind.

    " install QNX Momentics on a host machine, install the QNX Neutrino RTOS on a target machine, set up communications between the two systems, and then use the IDE to develop a program on the host machine and run it on the target"
    Quote Originally Posted by gorang View Post
    Sounds like your friend is not looking at RIM's plans past phones, he probably doesn't even know or understand that RIM plans on putting their software into cars and connecting them >securely< to their network. They also plan on getting into machine-to-machine communications so that from you phone you can control everything that's happening in your house and car. And let's not forget about device management for BB, iOs and Android devices that they are already in and only getting stronger. So RIM is not bringing knige to the gun fight, they are just preparing for different kind of fight.
  6. Goint's Avatar
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    #6  

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    Buy F.U.D, it does pay off.
  7. Superfly_FR's Avatar

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    Hey, what did you expect ?
    #7  

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    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    Was chatting with a friend at a large hedge fund [...]
    1) RIM's network, a strategic asset, will add little value to the BB10 phone
    This is, I believe, the proof he didn't get what "platform" means. Moreover, he relies on dev alpha specs (ActiveSync "only"), witch is irrelevant. BB10 devices will use BIS/BES architecture and will be ActiveXable. I cant stop quoting Heins on this : "[...] we have to set up the plumbing first" = We have to rebuild the whole middleware (NOC) for carriers and manufacturers (read QNX/BB10 licenses).

    2) This is an ecosystem war - single product companies like RIM are bringing a knife to a gun fight
    I believe, if you read the point 1, you understand that the "single device" argument is [place your appreciation here].

    3) Companies were abandoning RIM - having to switch servers (to support BB10) will only make things worse
    Name them ! We've heard (foamed like h3ll) about maybe 5-10 companies or (small-medium) US govt agencies considering ditching BES.
    Yet, it would be interesting to know how many have really ditched Blackberry (this is an official CrackBerry blog entry request : where have the rumored quitters gone ?).
    About server switch, once again, he's very late ... this was the case when BES10 wasn't available and you had to install separate instances of MF/Balance (didn't mean new physical server, BTW) to manage Playbooks ... now BES10 can manage all BB devices (+iOs' + Androids') and the BB10ready program (incl 1 BES10 for 1 BES5 free server license upgrade) is on the road. He should soon hear positiveness, loyalty statements and probably ... some backpedal.

    Is that enough for a fund to go long on RIM ? Well, I don't know.
    But let me state I prefer them to join the dance after I bought my shares or even better, after BB10 succeeds. Would be better for my gains and for RIM valuation ... so let it be ! ... But your friend seriously needs an update.
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 12-08-2012 at 11:50 AM.
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  8. John Arnold's Avatar
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    Default

    Thank you - what is the value, to customers, of using BB10 with the BIS / BES architecture? I have heard the 'secure data transmission for hospitals' idea, but is there anything else?
  9. John Arnold's Avatar
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    Tom, I likely more own RIM shares than you could afford if you sold your house. No name calling you peasant.
  10. Lehomer's Avatar
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    #10  

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    Please name the hedge fund and your friends name .
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  11. grover5's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    Tom, I likely more own RIM shares than you could afford if you sold your house. No name calling you peasant.
    Peasant? Wow.
  12. Superfly_FR's Avatar

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    #12  

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    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    Thank you - what is the value, to customers, of using BB10 with the BIS / BES architecture? I have heard the 'secure data transmission for hospitals' idea, but is there anything else?
    BIS (public)
    - Data compression
    - Data transfer reliability (see: carrier network congestion in emergency situations)
    - Cost (this is what enables PIN2PIN like BBM with low subscription fees)
    - BB protect (localization, backup, wipe, etc)

    BES10 (enterprises)
    - Data compression
    - Device management (BB,Ios,Android)
    - Security for company data (private encryption key)
    - Leaks prevention - professional apps usage / Privacy & freedom for the user (read : Balance)
    - Backups, push (OTA) install for enterprise apps

    There's probably more ... just a quick answer.
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  13. dentynefire's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by D_March View Post
    Peasant? Wow.
    at least he didn't call you a serf
  14. timmy t's Avatar
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    #14  

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    Every one is entitled to their opinion. We really don't know how informed he is. He may just be looking at the phone itself, not knowing what other products and services RIM is lining up for the ecosystem.
    If he does know that, can you please get him to tell us? Maybe he has some inside information.
  15. dentynefire's Avatar
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    Buying a stock just because its cheap is not a smart way to invest. Everyone has different opinions on what RIM will or will not do so until BB10 is released or maybe at the next earnings call we will find out about the revenue opportunity with handling all of Canadas NFC payments RIM’s Secure Element Manager Solution to Power NFC Mobile Payments in Canada. Not sure what you want us to tell you RIM doesn't exactly come to us and say BTW here are our plans
  16. grover5's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dentynefire View Post
    at least he didn't call you a serf
    Ha ha. He actually called someone else a peasant. He better be careful or someone might storm his castle.
    dentynefire likes this.
  17. John Arnold's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #17  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by dentynefire View Post
    Buying a stock just because its cheap is not a smart way to invest. Everyone has different opinions on what RIM will or will not do so until BB10 is released or maybe at the next earnings call we will find out about the revenue opportunity with handling all of Canadas NFC payments RIM’s Secure Element Manager Solution to Power NFC Mobile Payments in Canada. Not sure what you want us to tell you RIM doesn't exactly come to us and say BTW here are our plans
    I was hoping someone might have the technical knowledge to interpret RIM's solution (what has been revealed) and suggest what business / consumer solutions may be possible. There are some tech savvy forum participants who can bridge 'technology' and 'business'. Types of specific questions I have:

    1) Is RIM uniquely positioned to thrive in payments - especially in emerging markets?
    2) Will RIM's car solution be better than competitors? Why?
    3) What unique steps might RIM have taken to build a mobile computing platform vs. a simple platform for phones and tablets?
    4) How do IT departments feel about RIM's IT solution - MDM, new servers vs. competitors such as Good?
  18. #18  

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    enough name calling from everyone. Keep it clean.
    ~Matt
    OnePlus One, Nexus 5, Z10 LE, White Lumia 521, 32GB Nook HD+ & 16GB PB, 32 GB Dell Venue 8 Pro
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  19. Superfly_FR's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    I was hoping someone might have the technical knowledge to interpret RIM's solution (what has been revealed) and suggest what business / consumer solutions may be possible. There are some tech savvy forum participants who can bridge 'technology' and 'business'. Types of specific questions I have:

    1) Is RIM uniquely positioned to thrive in payments - especially in emerging markets?
    2) Will RIM's car solution be better than competitors? Why?
    3) What unique steps might RIM have taken to build a mobile computing platform vs. a simple platform for phones and tablets?
    4) How do IT departments feel about RIM's IT solution - MDM, new servers vs. competitors such as Good?
    1) No but RIM has a solid reputation AND proven technology. Add NFC (especially relevant in emerging countries where coverage is poor)
    2) RIM's car solution (QNX automotive) is the leader. Why ? cost+customization+efficiency+openness (protocols, features).
    3) Every RIM device is QNX OSes powered (yes, technically, BB10 is a system software, not an OS) that can be managed by back-end (BES)/middleware (BIS) software and interact based on low-level stacks, including physical hardware identification (BBID).
    4) Hard to tell, have to wait a few weeks, but you'll read it in CEx press in a short while. The desire of change some have expressed is based on the users envy to use alternative devices, I've never read statements of IT depts claiming "BES is irrelevant". Now that BES10 is here and add the MDM for iOS and Android, I believe that at least current BES5 users will enjoy it much, as there will be very limited changes and a tiny learning curve.

    I'm not sure of what you intend to do in this thread ...
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  20. kdna's Avatar
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    #20  

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    There are hedge funds that make sizable returns for their investors, and there are those that do not. There is very little upside in terms of product offering and strategic growth opportunities for competing platforms. BlackBerry 10 is a win. Research in Motion will dominate the space it created. Enough chasing. It's kick a$$ innovation time.

    January 30th 2013 - wait for it.
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  21. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    #21  

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    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    I was hoping someone might have the technical knowledge to interpret RIM's solution (what has been revealed) and suggest what business / consumer solutions may be possible. There are some tech savvy forum participants who can bridge 'technology' and 'business'. Types of specific questions I have:

    1) Is RIM uniquely positioned to thrive in payments - especially in emerging markets?
    No. It's already been reported that China Mobile and China Unicom will be offering a mobile payments solution via Unionpay. China Mobile is launching in February. They're going with Android.

    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    2) Will RIM's car solution be better than competitors? Why?
    No. Car companies are loathe to give up anything but the most basic infotainment system APIs. The statement most commonly uttered is "we want to control the experience." That's basically a thinly veiled way of saying, "there's no money in it for us unless we can make people buy what we sell."

    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    3) What unique steps might RIM have taken to build a mobile computing platform vs. a simple platform for phones and tablets?
    There's nothing really on the immediate horizon. They need all their cash to make and promote their BB10 stuff.

    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    4) How do IT departments feel about RIM's IT solution - MDM, new servers vs. competitors such as Good?
    IT departments love BES. It gives them almost absolute control over Blackberries. Most likely, their MDM solution will be competitive with Good.
  22. John Arnold's Avatar
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    Thanks for the input Roo - fact based input, though I wish you had facts that supported a more optimistic outlook for RIM.
  23. TomJasper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    Tom, I likely more own RIM shares than you could afford if you sold your house. No name calling you peasant.
    I see the mod removed my last post to you but let your post stand,sickening indeed,moderate fairly or find something else to do MOD.

    Now back to John Arnold,lol.

    John you say " Tom, I likely more own RIM shares than......."

    Since when is " likely more own" proper sentence structure?

    Yep you are a "legend in your own mind". You hang with fund managers,lol,yet your grammar betrays you.

    Nuff said!

    Note to MOD, this is fair rebuttal for being called a "peasant".
  24. TomJasper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by howarmat View Post
    enough name calling from everyone. Keep it clean.
    Look up "everyone" in the dictionary if you decide to use it in your comment. You took down my first post (rebuttal) to being called a "peasant" yet you let the OP stand with his "peasant" comment to myself. How is that "everyone"? Seeing as I'm a good sport I refurbished a NEW rebuttal to the OP in regards to his "peasant" comment, are you going to side with the OP yet again and only remove my rebuttal? Show me(us) you are not biased because of my previous none agreement to one of your BB10 comments, show me(us) you don't have an axe to grind and take being a MOD with the utmost respect for fairness.

    Jeesh

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