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  1. the_sleuth's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #1  

    Default BB 10 - Sales predictions for 2013

    Well it's a new year. I thought it would be fun to speculate how many units RIM can sell in the first month of Z10 launch and later in the launch of X10:

    First Month
    Z10 Unit Sales = 2 million units
    X10 Unit Sales = 5 million units

    I think there is more pent up demand for X10 than Z10.

    In 2013, with other models, BB10 units could sell between 12 to 15 million units in its first year.

    What's your sales prediction for 2013?
    Evolution of Communication: Rotary Phone > Dial Tone > Motorola Walkie-talkie > Nokia 2160 > Nokia 6190 > Samsung a460 > Samsung a920 > BB 8700 > BB 9530 > BB 9860 > PlayBook > Z10 > HTC One X+>Z30
  2. #2  

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    i hope more than that because they need over 18 million BB10 devices to break even according to a report. I think they can sell 20 million bb10 devices this year
    ~Matt
    OnePlus One, Nexus 5, Z10 LE, White Lumia 521, 32GB Nook HD+ & 16GB PB, 32 GB Dell Venue 8 Pro
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  3. maam's Avatar
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    #3  

    Default BB 10 - Sales predictions for 2013

    They sold under 7 million os7, I can imagine the bb10 will sell pretty well eh.
    Be Proud
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  4. BrizzadMan's Avatar
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    #4  

    Default BB 10 - Sales predictions for 2013

    I believe Thorsten stated he expects Z10's to outsell the X10's at least 3 to 1. (Can't remember if that was the exact ratio he stated tho, may have been 5 to 1).

    I'd wager that is a good estimate. I'd expect BB10 subscribers to be high in 2013 given all the corporate/enterprise incentive they are offering to replace existing BB fleets. Not sure how those chalk up in terms of sales % though...

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9900 using Tapatalk
  5. timmy t's Avatar
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    #5  

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    I would be surprised if they don't sell 35 million phones over the first 12 month period.
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  6. timmy t's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by howarmat View Post
    i hope more than that because they need over 18 million BB10 devices to break even according to a report. I think they can sell 20 million bb10 devices this year
    He/she was talking about the first month. I assume he means first month for each since they will be released at different times.
  7. LazyEvul's Avatar
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    #7  

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    I'd expect the Z10 to outsell the X10 as well. Whether you're a QWERTY diehard or not, full-touch is in all likelihood the way of the future as it's the preference of the average consumer. Sliders are a nice way to meet in-between, but they add thickness, cost and put durability at risk - none of which the average consumer wants either. Luckily, I'm confident that RIM has done an excellent job with the typing experience on the Z10.

    As for actual sales numbers? Very difficult to say for sure, but I think that howarmat's prediction of 20 million units this year seems reasonable if RIM does a good job with marketing.
    Passport (10.3.0.1418) | Z30 (10.3.1.1016) | Lumia 1020 (WP8.1, Lumia Cyan) | Surface Pro 3 (256GB i5)
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  8. #8  

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    Quote Originally Posted by timmy t View Post
    He/she was talking about the first month. I assume he means first month for each since they will be released at different times.
    he said


    In 2013, with other models, BB10 units could sell between 12 to 15 million units in its first year.
    I responded with my yearly totals....
    ~Matt
    OnePlus One, Nexus 5, Z10 LE, White Lumia 521, 32GB Nook HD+ & 16GB PB, 32 GB Dell Venue 8 Pro
    @howarmat
  9. Shanerredflag's Avatar
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    #9  

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    Agree with 22.5 - 25 million first year estimate (combined X and Z platforms). Just a guess but I'd think a large percentage of that total takes place in the fourth quarter.
  10. TomJasper's Avatar
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    #10  

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    47,587,680 (12 months)
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  11. bitek's Avatar
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    #11  

    Default Re: BB 10 - Sales predictions for 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by howarmat View Post
    i hope more than that because they need over 18 million BB10 devices to break even according to a report. I think they can sell 20 million bb10 devices this year
    just to break even ? why so much ?

    Sent from Blackberry Playbook using TapaTalk 2
  12. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitek View Post
    just to break even ? why so much ?

    Sent from Blackberry Playbook using TapaTalk 2
    It takes into account the very high likelihood that sales of BB10 devices will eat into sales of BBOS devices.
  13. lnichols's Avatar
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    #13  

    Default Re: BB 10 - Sales predictions for 2013

    Z10 will outsell the X10 by far, even Thor has stated this. I'm sure its backed up by market research RIM has done. PKB people have had tje Bold, but RIM has never had a great all touch device.
  14. Dapper37's Avatar
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    #14  

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    RIM is most likely going to blow us away with units shipped.
    Soon they will make apple look like a fat, lazy oldman! nuff said!
  15. randall2580's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dapper37 View Post
    RIM is most likely going to blow us away with units shipped.
    Soon they will make apple look like a fat, lazy oldman! nuff said!
    Apple sold about 88 million phones in Q2-Q4 2012, and the full year was over 125 million, so RIM better be ramping up production. (source Dow Jones: • Apple iPhone - global sales by quarter 2007-2012 | Statistic ).

    I think RIM sells 20 million BB10 first year if only the faithful buy, and 30-35 if it gets other's attention.
  16. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    Somebody in the forum, I forgot who, already predicted BB10 phones will outsell iPhone for 2013.... yah right.
  17. tiziano27's Avatar
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    #17  

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    If 900 million smarphones are shipped 2013, BlackBerry 10 taking 1.5% of market share, that would be 13.5 million units.
  18. mathking606's Avatar
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    #18  

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    Does this break even include selling a certain amount of BB7 Devices or just BB10 devices
  19. kfh227's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roo Zilla View Post
    Somebody in the forum, I forgot who, already predicted BB10 phones will outsell iPhone for 2013.... yah right.
    RIMM isn't relying on look how cool you are to buy this widget advertising like APPLE relys on. Thing is, "cool" things are only in for about 5 years if lucky. Apple's days are numbered.
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  20. the_sleuth's Avatar
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    My "back of napkin" calculation was based on market share with perhaps a slight increase in market share for 2013.

    Quote Originally Posted by tiziano27 View Post
    If 900 million smarphones are shipped 2013, BlackBerry 10 taking 1.5% of market share, that would be 13.5 million units.
    I think 25 million is optimistic. Remember RIM will spend a boat load of money on marketing this year. Some analyst said 18 million units would be break even point but I am not sure what the unit sales mix would be between OS7 and BB10.

    Quote Originally Posted by howarmat View Post
    i hope more than that because they need over 18 million BB10 devices to break even according to a report. I think they can sell 20 million bb10 devices this year
    Either way, RIMM stock is heading higher.
    Evolution of Communication: Rotary Phone > Dial Tone > Motorola Walkie-talkie > Nokia 2160 > Nokia 6190 > Samsung a460 > Samsung a920 > BB 8700 > BB 9530 > BB 9860 > PlayBook > Z10 > HTC One X+>Z30
  21. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kfh227 View Post
    RIMM isn't relying on look how cool you are to buy this widget advertising like APPLE relys on. Thing is, "cool" things are only in for about 5 years if lucky. Apple's days are numbered.
    Was it you who said BB10 was going to outsell iPhone this year?
  22. MartyMcfly's Avatar
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    #22  

    Default BB 10 - Sales predictions for 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by kfh227 View Post
    RIMM isn't relying on look how cool you are to buy this widget advertising like APPLE relys on. Thing is, "cool" things are only in for about 5 years if lucky. Apple's days are numbered.
    So why did they release the storm (torch)? RIM's recent actions negates everything you're saying about them not wanting to be cool. Nothing last forever, however to dismiss the iPhone as if its a fad is silly on your part. There's a ton of stuff that I can do on my iPhone (personal and professional) that can't be replicated on bb devices. Anywhoo, I say Rimm sells 10-12 million devices next year. They have to get rid of the negative stigma that's haunting the company (Which is very difficult).


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
  23. fernandez21's Avatar
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    #23  

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    I say between 20-30 million for the full year counting all BB10 devices they release in 2013.
    all smartphones are tools.
    android = 48pc tool set (you"ll eventually find the tool you need, but some assembly required)
    iphone = swiss army knife (most of the tools you need in a small, simple to use package)
    blackberry = adjustable wrench (sometimes all you need is a wrench)
    windows phone = bionic wrench (its different....but it works)
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  24. CairnsRock's Avatar
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    A full year forecast will be more meaningfully. The first 3 months will see an uneven sales flow as the world wide carriers will prime their sales pumps at varying speeds.
  25. FSeverino's Avatar
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    well just on math i would think a minimum would be 8 million... 10% conversion
    ------------------------>LIST OF WORKING Android Apps for Z10/BB10 ---200 SO FAR!!! <------------------------
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