[the_sleuth]

Well it's a new year. I thought it would be fun to speculate how many units RIM can sell in the first month of Z10 launch and later in the launch of X10:

First Month
Z10 Unit Sales = 2 million units
X10 Unit Sales = 5 million units

I think there is more pent up demand for X10 than Z10.

In 2013, with other models, BB10 units could sell between 12 to 15 million units in its first year.

What's your sales prediction for 2013?

[howarmat]

i hope more than that because they need over 18 million BB10 devices to break even according to a report. I think they can sell 25 million bb10 devices this year

[maam]

They sold under 7 million os7, I can imagine the bb10 will sell pretty well eh.

[BrizzadMan]

I believe Thorsten stated he expects Z10's to outsell the X10's at least 3 to 1. (Can't remember if that was the exact ratio he stated tho, may have been 5 to 1).

I'd wager that is a good estimate. I'd expect BB10 subscribers to be high in 2013 given all the corporate/enterprise incentive they are offering to replace existing BB fleets. Not sure how those chalk up in terms of sales % though...

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[timmy t]

I would be surprised if they don't sell 35 million phones over the first 12 month period.

[timmy t]

i hope more than that because they need over 18 million BB10 devices to break even according to a report. I think they can sell 25 million bb10 devices this year

He/she was talking about the first month. I assume he means first month for each since they will be released at different times.

[LazyEvul]

I'd expect the Z10 to outsell the X10 as well. Whether you're a QWERTY diehard or not, full-touch is in all likelihood the way of the future as it's the preference of the average consumer. Sliders are a nice way to meet in-between, but they add thickness, cost and put durability at risk - none of which the average consumer wants either. Luckily, I'm confident that RIM has done an excellent job with the typing experience on the Z10.

As for actual sales numbers? Very difficult to say for sure, but I think that howarmat's prediction of 25 million units this year seems reasonable if RIM does a good job with marketing.

[howarmat]

He/she was talking about the first month. I assume he means first month for each since they will be released at different times.

he said

In 2013, with other models, BB10 units could sell between 12 to 15 million units in its first year.

I responded with my yearly totals....

[Shanerredflag]

Agree with 22.5 - 25 million first year estimate (combined X and Z platforms). Just a guess but I'd think a large percentage of that total takes place in the fourth quarter.

[TomJasper]

47,587,680 (12 months)

[bitek]

i hope more than that because they need over 18 million BB10 devices to break even according to a report. I think they can sell 25 million bb10 devices this year

just to break even ? why so much ?

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[Roo Zilla]

just to break even ? why so much ?

Sent from Blackberry Playbook using TapaTalk 2

It takes into account the very high likelihood that sales of BB10 devices will eat into sales of BBOS devices.

[lnichols]

Z10 will outsell the X10 by far, even Thor has stated this. I'm sure its backed up by market research RIM has done. PKB people have had tje Bold, but RIM has never had a great all touch device.

[Dapper37]

RIM is most likely going to blow us away with units shipped.
Soon they will make apple look like a fat, lazy oldman! nuff said!

[randall2580]

RIM is most likely going to blow us away with units shipped.
Soon they will make apple look like a fat, lazy oldman! nuff said!

Apple sold about 88 million phones in Q2-Q4 2012, and the full year was over 125 million, so RIM better be ramping up production. (source Dow Jones: • Apple iPhone - global sales by quarter 2007-2012 | Statistic ).

I think RIM sells 20 million BB10 first year if only the faithful buy, and 30-35 if it gets other's attention.

[Roo Zilla]

Somebody in the forum, I forgot who, already predicted BB10 phones will outsell iPhone for 2013.... yah right.

[tiziano27]

If 900 million smarphones are shipped 2013, BlackBerry 10 taking 1.5% of market share, that would be 13.5 million units.

[mathking606]

Does this break even include selling a certain amount of BB7 Devices or just BB10 devices

[kfh227]

Somebody in the forum, I forgot who, already predicted BB10 phones will outsell iPhone for 2013.... yah right.

RIMM isn't relying on look how cool you are to buy this widget advertising like APPLE relys on. Thing is, "cool" things are only in for about 5 years if lucky. Apple's days are numbered.

[the_sleuth]

My "back of napkin" calculation was based on market share with perhaps a slight increase in market share for 2013.

If 900 million smarphones are shipped 2013, BlackBerry 10 taking 1.5% of market share, that would be 13.5 million units.

I think 25 million is optimistic. Remember RIM will spend a boat load of money on marketing this year. Some analyst said 18 million units would be break even point but I am not sure what the unit sales mix would be between OS7 and BB10.

i hope more than that because they need over 18 million BB10 devices to break even according to a report. I think they can sell 25 million bb10 devices this year

Either way, RIMM stock is heading higher.

[Roo Zilla]

RIMM isn't relying on look how cool you are to buy this widget advertising like APPLE relys on. Thing is, "cool" things are only in for about 5 years if lucky. Apple's days are numbered.

Was it you who said BB10 was going to outsell iPhone this year?

[MartyMcfly]

RIMM isn't relying on look how cool you are to buy this widget advertising like APPLE relys on. Thing is, "cool" things are only in for about 5 years if lucky. Apple's days are numbered.

So why did they release the storm (torch)? RIM's recent actions negates everything you're saying about them not wanting to be cool. Nothing last forever, however to dismiss the iPhone as if its a fad is silly on your part. There's a ton of stuff that I can do on my iPhone (personal and professional) that can't be replicated on bb devices. Anywhoo, I say Rimm sells 10-12 million devices next year. They have to get rid of the negative stigma that's haunting the company (Which is very difficult).


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[fernandez21]

I say between 20-30 million for the full year counting all BB10 devices they release in 2013.

[CairnsRock]

A full year forecast will be more meaningfully. The first 3 months will see an uneven sales flow as the world wide carriers will prime their sales pumps at varying speeds.

[FSeverino]

well just on math i would think a minimum would be 8 million... 10% conversion