[FSeverino]

in all honesty...

i know that a lot of the 80 M current holders are in countries that may not be able to afford a brand new top of the line smartphone... so in reality we would probably need a number like 20 - 30% of 'elite' subscribers to convert, which i think isnt that bad. I know that i DONT have a BB phone (never have) but i REALLY want a BB 10 device after falling in love with my PB.

[Drew808]

So why did they release the storm (torch)? RIM's recent actions negates everything you're saying about them not wanting to be cool. Nothing last forever, however to dismiss the iPhone as if its a fad is silly on your part. There's a ton of stuff that I can do on my iPhone (personal and professional) that can't be replicated on bb devices. Anywhoo, I say Rimm sells 10-12 million devices next year. They have to get rid of the negative stigma that's haunting the company (Which is very difficult).

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I agree on the sales numbers and it would have been in RIM's best interest to have both phones available for purchase at the same time. I can't see 25-30 million devices sold unless it includes bbos sales along with BB10. The Galaxy note 2 came out in Sept and by late Nov had sold 5 million devices; Today they just announced 1 million more sold in South Korea and are believed to get to 10 million soon at the current rate. These are numbers for an extremely hot flagship phone which will inevitably slow down but it only has the Droid DNA and couple other phablets to worry about. RIM can only hope that the product is well received but how long will 2 non-flagship phones carry them before getting overshadowed by the quad-core monsters getting released early next year. The qwerty version will not sell well if priced the same as the bold is today but the z10 should have a great initial spurt if priced correctly.

[FSeverino]

you cant really compare any phone with another without taking things into consideration.

not everyone wants a phone with the screen size as the note... a VERY big fact that needs to be looked at

[jstarett]

Didn't analyst predict about 70% of the current blackberry subscribers would purchase the new BB10 phones? Going from what they said that would be about 54 million handhelds sold!

[Drew808]

you cant really compare any phone with another without taking things into consideration.

not everyone wants a phone with the screen size as the note... a VERY big fact that needs to be looked at

The reason for the comparison was highlighting the fact that the note is not for everyone due to the size but has sold extremely well for a niche product. It also gets noticed by the regular consumer even if it's not something they would buy because it's abnormal which in turn helps brand recognition. In my opinion I don't that think 2 non-flagship phones from any company could stay hot in the market for more than 4 months. This alone could hurt sales unless the Aristo is released by Sept.

[FSeverino]

Didn't analyst predict about 70% of the current blackberry subscribers would purchase the new BB10 phones? Going from what they said that would be about 54 million handhelds sold!

yea... but 'analysts' are also the reason stock prices are so low.

i would say a good 25% to 50% conversion over the first year would be a good number... but thats just based on other phone sales.

[FSeverino]

The reason for the comparison was highlighting the fact that the note is not for everyone due to the size but has sold extremely well for a niche product. It also gets noticed by the regular consumer even if it's not something they would buy because it's abnormal which in turn helps brand recognition. In my opinion I don't that think 2 non-flagship phones from any company could stay hot in the market for more than 4 months. This alone could hurt sales unless the Aristo is released by Sept.

that i can agree with. If the Aristo specs are as mentioned i would LOVE that phone ... and my contract ends in august!!! hopefully RIM releases all that info during the event. I would hate to cancel my contract for the Z model and then really want the Aristo in Sept.

[Drew808]

that i can agree with. If the Aristo specs are as mentioned i would LOVE that phone ... and my contract ends in august!!! hopefully RIM releases all that info during the event. I would hate to cancel my contract for the Z model and then really want the Aristo in Sept.

Exactly! Though I hate talking about a rumored phone the Aristo would automatically raise eyebrows and the hub/active frames on a 4.7 inch screen would definitely look nice. As far as RIM releasing info on the Aristo during the launch that would immediately cannibalize sales of the Z10 and X10 so that wouldn't be a good idea.

[Jake Storm]

... If the Aristo specs are as mentioned i would LOVE that phone ... and my contract ends in august!!! hopefully RIM releases all that info during the event. I would hate to cancel my contract for the Z model and then really want the Aristo in Sept.

They will not be releasing information about the Aristo at the Jan 30th event. That would just be shooting themselves in the foot.
"Hey people we're releasing two new phones but don't buy them, we'll have a better one in six months."

*edit ^^ Looks like Drew and I were typing at the same time.

[FSeverino]

we have the specs (or idea of it) at least a confirmation on timeline of release

[Jake Storm]

we have the specs (or idea of it) at least a confirmation on timeline of release

If people insist on a timeline of release. They should tell everyone that it is due for release Jan. 30th 2014.
Then they can surprise everyone by releasing it Aug. 2013.

Announcing a release any sooner than a year from Jan. 30th would just be bad business.

[tiziano27]

I think 25 million is optimistic. Remember RIM will spend a boat load of money on marketing this year. Some analyst said 18 million units would be break even point but I am not sure what the unit sales mix would be between OS7 and BB10.

25 million would be huge, 2.7% market share for completely new platform. But there are some problems for this to happen:

1)It's difficult to change the image of a company, people won't rush to buy these phones.
2)BlackBerry 10 is new software, surely has many bugs. Press will be as unmerciful as they are with Windows Phone or Surface.
3)Most BlackBerry 10 apps are fast ports from Android apps, so expect low quality and bugs. Updates and fixes for BlackBerry 10 are the last priority for devs.
4)RIM is trying to maximize the money that can extract from fans and companies with existing investments. Phones are going to be expensive and won't introduce more affordable devices for the most part of the first year.

Next year things should be better, this year is about surviving and building the platform.

[robtanz]

I am pretty sure that any number I guess is going to be wrong, so I am only going to say: at least 1(the one - get).

Sent from my BlackBerry 9900 using Tapatalk

[Drew808]

25 million would be huge, 2.7% market share for completely new platform. But there are some problems for this to happen:

1)It's difficult to change the image of a company, people won't rush to buy these phones.
2)BlackBerry 10 is new software, surely has many bugs. Press will be as unmerciful as they are with Windows Phone or Surface.
3)Most BlackBerry 10 apps are fast ports from Android apps, so expect low quality and bugs. Updates and fixes for BlackBerry 10 are the last priority for devs.
4)RIM is trying to maximize the money that can extract from fans and companies with existing investments. Phones are going to be expensive and won't introduce more affordable devices for the most part of the first year.

Next year things should be better, this year is about surviving and building the platform.

This will be a major hurdle to cross. Everyone that I have talked to who has even heard about BB10 says that they will take a wait and see approach and I think that a lot of consumers who have switched to IOS or Android will not jump ship immediately. People will judge RIM by the last couple of products released and will only give BB10 a chance if the reviews are great. Most of these people are already biased and may not give the platform a look no matter how good it is.

[Sith_Apprentice]

From the RIM quartly report on Dec 20

Shipments of 6.9 million smartphones and 255,000 PlayBooks

I would think that this, with its declining numbers from previous, on aging hardware, would be well below what you will see in the first quarter of BB10. I would expect between 7-8.5million BB devices sold Q1 (ending March 1 IIRC) including both legacy BBOS and BB10 devices. Q2 should be between 9-11mil depending on how well BB10 is received. Full year estimate would be somewhere around 30-32mil BB devices with another 1.5mil PlayBooks (since they will have BB10)

[shadboy]

i would say a good 25% to 50% conversion over the first year would be a good number... but thats just based on other phone sales.

I hope you are right. However a good number of BB's may be like mine. Corporate issued with our IT dept "slow" to move on anything new. I work in hi-tech and IT says we have to keep our laptops for 5 years if that tells you anything about our speed to go new. I personally will give it 6 months after release and if nothing happens with our IT,will bite the bullet and get my own and start expensing it cause I really, really want this phone. Heres to hoping.

[berklon]

I'm guessing around 9 million.

BB10 sales will have a quick burst in sales when it's released - it won't be iPhone or SGIII numbers obviously, but it'll be a nice jump for RIM giving them optimism.
However, I think after that initial phase of 30-60 days, sales will slow down considerably causing some major changes.

* This is all under the assumption that the BB10 launch doesn't bring any MAJOR surprises that will create a big WOW factor (and I don't consider getting popular apps that are available on iOS/Android to have WOW factor).

[SixStringMadness]

I can't wait for the release so that we can stop predicting, speculating, hoping, guessing, wondering, debating and wishing and start back with sharing tips, tricks and shortcuts....

[Drew808]

From the RIM quartly report on Dec 20



I would think that this, with its declining numbers from previous, on aging hardware, would be well below what you will see in the first quarter of BB10. I would expect between 7-8.5million BB devices sold Q1 (ending March 1 IIRC) including both legacy BBOS and BB10 devices. Q2 should be between 9-11mil depending on how well BB10 is received. Full year estimate would be somewhere around 30-32mil BB devices with another 1.5mil PlayBooks (since they will have BB10)

I agree somewhat that there will be a slight uptick with new hardware but RIM will need to also depend on emerging markets to sustain that number. Most of those markets will be unable to afford BB10 so RIM is basically depending on North America and Europe to offset the continued decline of the older product until a mid-range option is released to those markets. If they can sell 8.5 million phones per quarter for a full year you are looking at around 26 million devices sold. This would also be dependent on when the qwerty model is released.

[kbz1960]

I'm just going to say enough to make a profit to continue on improving and increasing.

[chrysaurora]

3)Most BlackBerry 10 apps are fast ports from Android apps, so expect low quality and bugs. Updates and fixes for BlackBerry 10 are the last priority for devs.

Agree with most of what you said. As for point 3: not sure. There are going to be a lot of Android ports but there are also going to be lots of native apps (they have been targeting top 200 apps from every region) so I think 'apps' won't prove to be a big problem. We are still unsure of few big name apps (netflix, skype etc) but maybe RIM's holding that as a surprise or maybe these big players will join in after launch of the device.

[Rello]

Somebody in the forum, I forgot who, already predicted BB10 phones will outsell iPhone for 2013.... yah right.

http://forums.crackberry.com/general...iction-755156/

Is this the thread you're referring to lol?

[steven4u2nv]

So why did they release the storm (torch)? RIM's recent actions negates everything you're saying about them not wanting to be cool. Nothing last forever, however to dismiss the iPhone as if its a fad is silly on your part. There's a ton of stuff that I can do on my iPhone (personal and professional) that can't be replicated on bb devices. Anywhoo, I say Rimm sells 10-12 million devices next year. They have to get rid of the negative stigma that's haunting the company (Which is very difficult).

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

While I understand where you are coming from, I don�t think cool was on BB brain as much as you think. When the Torch/Storm dropped BB finally realized there was a consumer demand that was very real and they were not meeting. If a BB loyal person wanted a phone similar to the iphone they couldn�t get one from BB. I am not interested in smallish screen and prefer a touch device over a �standard� BB and I am sure there are others that share my opinion. I do text an email a lot from my phone so I got a 9800.

Furthermore, I and several other BB fans and/or loyalists have been waiting for BB10 device since they were announced almost 2 years ago. With a consumer base of 80 million users, if 25% upgrade this year then that is 20 million phones. In addition I work with over 5000 people and there is a decent fraction of former BB users that switched to other platforms because BBOS v6.0 wasn�t getting the job done, and they will be returning if BB10 is as good as what we seen so far. With personal information security, and the ability to make payments via NFC right from your phone there will be awakening for many people and they will realize their phones aren�t very secure and that the only certified to be secure phones on the market are BB devices. Corporations and Governments that must control the flow of vital and sensitive information all use BB devices to protect their data from falling into the wrong hands. I am sure there will be a migration of IOS and Android users to BB10 both new and returning customers. BB10 phones will have a excellent user experience while providing a secure device to do it. So with that said 20-25 million isn�t such an unrealistic number anymore.

[SEAWARRIOR]

oookaaayyy,,, OP asked how many in the 1st MONTH of release for each model,,, i say 2,179,463 L's,,, 1,117,253 N's...

[Mi.key]

Whether you're a QWERTY diehard or not, full-touch is in all likelihood the way of the future as it's the preference of the average consumer.

I hate to agree with you but you're right...