[hurds]

I got a prediction. I think in 1 year BBs global smartphone marketshare (10+BBOS) will be equal to or greater than iPhone, it will obviously lag the 'free'-ware and I think WP8 will grow marginally but stay in the single digits .

I feel pretty good about that one. Any other predictions? Disagree with it? Agree? Upset by it?

Its funny how there doesnt seem to be much of an attempt to report this but it would be interesting to know market share based on all personal computing devices. Tablets+PCs+Smartphones. Active user device marketshare (not counting devices that have been junked) would be good to know as well.

[kill_9]

Let's wait for BlackBerry 10 smartphones to hit the market for a few months before jumping to conclusions. The critical uptake period is the first 3-6 months of a new product's life. If Research In Motion has its act together for the launch of the BlackBerry 10 mobile computing platform including the new smartphones as well as an update for the tablet (WiFi and 4G/LTE models), Thorsten Heins will have orchestrated the equivalent of "Miracle on 34th Street." In the meantime, light a candle and place it in the window.

[12Danny123]

Dude. you need to not be bias. just saying BB10 catching up to iphone will never happen in one year. and saying Wp8 will stay single digit is just bias. people are reporting that Nokia sold over 2.5 million Lumia 920 already. So I think you should wait and see and not compare right noe

[xSt0rmTroop3Rx]

Yes, it is much too early to make outrageous claims such as these. Anything could happen...BB10 could indeed "Flow," ... or it could very well flop, just as easily. Being CrackBerry.com, we can all hope the results are the former rather than the latter, but only time will tell. Whatever the case, I reluctantly agree that BB10, short of divine intervention, will not catch up to the iPhone, ESPECIALLY not inside of a year. I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but your prediction is just, sad though it may be, blind optimism. :/

[qbnkelt]

Well, here is a thread that needs bookmarking.

BB overtaking iPhone in one year.

Check.


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[sydsam]

I got a prediction. I think in 1 year BBs global smartphone marketshare (10+BBOS) will be equal to or greater than iPhone, it will obviously lag the 'free'-ware and I think WP8 will grow marginally but stay in the single digits .

I feel pretty good about that one. Any other predictions? Disagree with it? Agree? Upset by it?

Its funny how there doesnt seem to be much of an attempt to report this but it would be interesting to know market share based on all personal computing devices. Tablets+PCs+Smartphones. Active user device marketshare (not counting devices that have been junked) would be good to know as well.

iPhone 5 or iPhone is general? Do we know how many iPhones 5 were sold? I mean beyond that preorder number? If iPhone 5 flops spectacularly (apple is experiencing a bunch of problems at the manufacturing end, due to poor product design, with devices failing to pass quality control) , and BB 10 would be extremely well received, then why not. Taking over iOS though is out of the question for now.

[qbnkelt]

iPhone 5 or iPhone is general? Do we know how many iPhones 5 were sold? I mean beyond that preorder number? If iPhone 5 flops spectacularly (apple is experiencing a bunch of problems at the manufacturing end, due to poor product design, with devices failing to pass quality control) , and BB 10 would be extremely well received, then why not. Taking over iOS though is out of the question for now.

Good point.

However, his prediction was for BB to meet or exceed "iPhone" market share in one year, with no specificity or defining parameters.

I'm taking him on his initial prediction and have bookmarked the thread.

Meet you here on February 28, 2014.

Assuming we live through the Mayan Apocalypse.

[xSt0rmTroop3Rx]

Good point.

However, his prediction was for BB to meet or exceed "iPhone" in one year, with no specificity or defining parameters.

I'm taking him on his I itial prediction and have bookmarked the thread.

Meet you here on February 28, 2014.

Assuming we live through the Mayan Apocalypse.

Oh yes. This is ALL of course tentative until after December 21st, I agree.

[sydsam]

Good point.

However, his prediction was for BB to meet or exceed "iPhone" market share in one year, with no specificity or defining parameters.

I'm taking him on his initial prediction and have bookmarked the thread.

Meet you here on February 28, 2014.

Assuming we live through the Mayan Apocalypse.

Still a bit tricky, as Apples reporting is normally dodging unit sales. And iOS is ran on iPhones, iPads and iPod touch, I mean it would take some proper investigation to find out what that marketshare is in the first place.
And then there are those Mayans of course.
Hammersmith and Fulham-20121124-00086.jpg

[Roo Zilla]

I got a prediction. I think in 1 year BBs global smartphone marketshare (10+BBOS) will be equal to or greater than iPhone, it will obviously lag the 'free'-ware and I think WP8 will grow marginally but stay in the single digits .

I feel pretty good about that one. Any other predictions? Disagree with it? Agree? Upset by it?

I think in the period 365 days after BB10 is available for sale, iPhone will out sell BB in the global smartphone market share. By that I mean both installed user base, and phones sold, the latter obviously being the easier one for BB to beat. That's my prediction and I feel pretty good about that.

I'll make another prediction. 160M iPhones to 50M Blackberries.

[qbnkelt]

Still a bit tricky, as Apples reporting is normally dodging unit sales. And iOS is ran on iPhones, iPads and iPod touch, I mean it would take some proper investigation to find out what that marketshare is in the first place.
And then there are those Mayans of course.
Hammersmith and Fulham-20121124-00086.jpg

Where ARE you?!?!?!? get me some coffee at that shop????

[sydsam]

I'll make another prediction. 160M iPhones to 50M Blackberries.

I'll be surprised if they ship 100M, to be honest.

[sydsam]

Where ARE you?!?!?!? get me some coffee at that shop????

[Roo Zilla]

I'll be surprised if they ship 100M, to be honest.

Surprised if who ships 100M? Apple? I would be too, because it would be the first time that there would be a drop in sales in any 12 month period. In the previous 4 quarters they sold about 125M iPhones. They'll probably sell close to 40M iPhones in the current quarter.

[sydsam]

I would be too, because it would be the first time that there would be a drop in sales in any 12 month period.

Year on year or sequentially?

[Roo Zilla]

Year on year or sequentially?

In any sequential 4 quarters, which would obviously include year on year.

[sydsam]

In any sequential 4 quarters, which would obviously include year on year.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...06da164f38.png

So quarter sequential doesn't matter any more? You don't see that 10 m drop in sales?

[Roo Zilla]

So quarter sequential doesn't matter any more? You don't see that 10 m drop in sales?

It's been well reported the reason for the sales drop in Q3 and Q4 of 2012 was because of people holding off purchases and waiting on the iPhone 5. Similar to how many people are holding off purchases of new Blackberries until BB10 devices are available for sale. I guess one could call it a mini-Osbourne Effect. Predictions for Apple's 1st quarter 2013 (Oct-Dec 2012) range from 40M to 50M iPhones.

[kbz1960]

Seems some don't know what prediction means and that's quite a prediction Hurds!

[sydsam]

It's been well reported the reason for the sales drop in Q3 and Q4 of 2012 was because of people holding off purchases and waiting on the iPhone 5. Similar to how many people are holding off purchases of new Blackberries until BB10 devices are available for sale. I guess one could call it a mini-Osbourne Effect. Predictions for Apple's 1st quarter 2013 (Oct-Dec 2012) range from 40M to 50M iPhones.

And nobody waited for iPhone 5 last year??? Nobody was holding off then it seems. iPhone sales are slowing down, no reason to sugar coat this.

[Roo Zilla]

And nobody waited for iPhone 5 last year??? Nobody was holding off then it seems. iPhone sales are slowing down, no reason to sugar coat this.

I guess it's possible some people waited for the iPhone 5 last year, but I don't know of many. Most people waited for the iPhone 4S.

The reason there was no steep dropoff in sales in 2011 is because there were actually 2 iPhone launches that year. February saw the launch of the Verizon iPhone. October saw the launch of the iPhone 4S. The launch of the iPhone 4 on Verizon, 8 months prior, mitigated sales drop in the quarters immediately before the iPhone 4S was launched. Some people also waited for the white iPhone, which didn't become available until April of that year. It's also worth noting, the iPhone 4 had an extremely long period during which it reigned as the top iPhone model, over 16 months I believe.

[qbnkelt]

That would have been me...I wanted a white 4S...can't remember when I got it though.

[sydsam]

What the bloody are you on about. The gap between launches was longer between iPhone 4 and iPhone 4s, than between 4s and iphone5. An introduction of an iPhone by one of carriers in America, is a bit of a stretch to call it an iPhone launch. Don't you think?

Note to moderators.
Since when h-e-l-l is a swear word?

[ynomrah]

@hurds Poor prediction. Highly unlikely in any aspect.

Also mayan calendar simply ends. It doesn't present an apocalypse.

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[mikeo007]

Don't quit your day job. Unless you're an analyst, then do quit.