[kirson]

So, if I read Marcus' report properly, John Chen suggested that BBM has 85 million active users -- 40 million iOS/Android xBBM users, and 45 million Blackberry users. Back in late October of last year, I believe the numbers we heard from Blackberry were 80 million active users -- 20 million iOS/Android xBBM users, and, by implication, 60 million Blackberry users. So, did BBM lose 15 million Blackberry users over the past 2 months while gaining 20 million iOS/Android xBBM users? And is that good news or bad news? My concern is that the adoption rate on iOS/Android slows down (as most adoption rates tend to do), while the decline in Blackberry users continues (regardless of the pace). Bottom line, are we going to start seeing total active user numbers coming down towards 60-70 million?

[howarmat]

I think you will see declines in BB users and increases on iOS and Android still. i wouldnt think they lost 15 million in that time frame but the BB userbase has been in decline for several quarter now so losing some BB users is a given i think

[birdman_38]

It couldn't have been over the past two months alone. They haven't reported actual BlackBerry subscribers since the summer.

However, a sizeable migration from BlackBerry to Android/iOS due to BBMx is conceivable.

[kirson]

It couldn't have been over the past two months alone. They haven't reported actual BlackBerry subscribers since the summer.

However, a sizeable migration from BlackBerry to Android/iOS due to BBMx is conceivable.

True - no official report on the usage numbers, but I believe they released some marketing details a few weeks into the xBBM rollout when they reported the initial 20 million iOS/Android users - and at that point they referred to 80 million total active users. And while I acknowledge that there has been a gradual erosion in Blackberry users, a 15 million decline over 2 months would be pretty horrific, wouldn't it?

[SEAWARRIOR]

the ios & droid #'s are inaccurate,,, downloads don't = the # of people actually keeping bbm,,, they try it then get rid of it...

[Johnny Crack]

No because not every BlackBerry user is active on bbm. I remember the reports being 65-70 million BlackBerry user's, and 50 million "BlackBerry BBM" users.

Posted via CB10

[kirson]

No because not every BlackBerry user is active on bbm. I remember the reports being 65-70 million BlackBerry user's, and 50 million "BlackBerry BBM" users.

Posted via CB10

Blackberry issued a press release on October 29, 2013: BBM Welcomes Over 20 Million New Active Users in the First Week - Press Releases. In relevant part, the press release reads: "Waterloo, ON – After the amazing launch of BBM™ on Android� and iPhone� devices, with more than 10 million downloads in the first 24 hours, BBM has now ended its first week with more than 80 million monthly active users*, including over 20 million new users on Android and iPhone devices." They go on to define active users as: "*Monthly active users are defined as BBM customers who use the BBM service within a 30-day period."

[kirson]

I think you will see declines in BB users and increases on iOS and Android still. i wouldnt think they lost 15 million in that time frame but the BB userbase has been in decline for several quarter now so losing some BB users is a given i think

I guess my concern is that based on these two data points (the press release at the end of October and the interview with John Chen at CES), iOS/Android slowed from an initial adoption rate of 20 million in a week or two, to 20 million in 2 or 3 months. So, if the adoption rate continues to decline, can we expect to see new iOS/Android users come down to, say, 5-10 million over the next 2 or 3 months? And on the flip side, it looks like the decline in Blackberry users is actually accelerating. We were seeing total Blackberry usage numbers declining around 2-4 million per quarter (I think) during the last official reports on user base (in the quarterly reports that ended 2 quarters ago) - if that has now increased to 5+ million per MONTH, then is it fair to begin getting worried about BBM being able to continue growing its user base?