Here's a well written article predicting the end of the dominance of the Blackberry handheld.
Source:
Blackberry Meltdown Coming Soon - Five Reasons RIM Popularity Will Peak This Year*|*Gear Diary
This morning, as I’m reading news that the 3G Blackberry may be delayed so as not to collide with the 3G iPhone launch, I became convinced that Blackberry’s lengthy run atop the food chain of corporate mobile devices is ending. Why would I think that? Here’s 5 reasons that Blackberry device usage will peak in 2008 never to return to these heights again
I have several reasons for believing that the Blackberry “Cinderella Story” is going to gradually skid to a halt.
The major downside to Blackberry use is that many casual users don’t realize that to activate a Blackberry you must choose two cellular service plans — one voice plan plus a mandatory pricey Blackberry plan (and , yes, people do report being able to bypass the second restriction but the usability of the device is severely limited).
Some of you are saying that corporations don’t care about such expenses and just pay the bill in exchange for solid service. Maybe. But has anyone noticed we’re in the midst of a recession? Also each RIM press release touts the rapid growth that is coming from their consumer devices - NOT the corporate.
From the latest RIM Earnings Report as reported in the Financial Post on April 4, 2008:
During Wednesday’s conference call, co-chief executive Jim Balsillie mentioned how more than half of the new BlackBerry subscribers came from “non-enterprise” sectors, helped in part by a number of consumer-friendly offerings. RIM expects that lucrative subscriber base to grow past its current rate of 38% of total users with next quarter’s subscription base growth of 2.2 million customers.
“Consumer sales continue to move higher given the significant retail programs and national ad campaigns that are taking place,” said National Bank Financial analyst Deepak Chopra. “RIM indicated that this is expected to continue.”
Consumers DO care a lot about cost. Which is why the following 5 issues will, I believe, lead to a slowdown in RIM Blackberry market share.
Reason #1: I’m Seriously Thinking Of Junking My Blackberry and Going iPhone Only
This by itself doesn’t predict anything. Heck, I rarely use any phone longer than 6 months. But my Blackberry device has been on my hip since 1990. For 18 years this has been my main email, calendar, task and contact management.
The Blackberry allure started to fade in January when I bought up an iPhone - more out of curiosity than any desire to replace my Blackberry 8320.
That’s when I discovered reason #2 that people will ditch Blackberries.
Reason #2: The Browser Sucks
In the 18 year of using a Blackberry, the only resolution to this cruddy browser have been the suggestions to “use Opera”.
I’ve tried Opera and I guess it’s ok - but why shouldn’t RIM have a beefed up web browser by now. Sadly I don’t think much is going to change in “browser land” with the next iteration of the Blackberry. At least if something is on tap, nobody’s talking or demonstrating it.
It’s unbelievable, and almost negligent, that RIM have failed to improve their browser. Haven’t they watched the marketplace and the move to web based applications?
Reason #3: Push Email is No Longer A Mystery
I cancelled my BES (Blackberry Enterprise Server) about 6 months ago and went 100% with Google Mail and a less expensive ($19) Blackberry Internet Service. This pushes email out instantly to my 8320.
The Google imap setup was automatic. I receive Google Mail on my iPhone as well, it’s not instant but I’m betting it will be once iPhone attacks the corporate market. Once the corporate users get a look at free push email - the decision about whether to continue paying $40/user for BES connections or move to free push mail on an iPhone (or similar) is going to be easy to make.
Reason #4: BES is No Longer Needed To Sync: Calendar, Tasks, Contacts
RIM makes a lot of profit by selling additional plans to those using Blackberry’s. For anyone who purchased a Blackberry you’ll now what I’m talking about. To receive service via Blackberry requires a monthly cell phone plan PLUS a mandatory Blackberry data plan (pricing starts at an additional $19 per month for Blackberry Internet Service and $39 per month for the corporate Blackberry Enterprise Service)
Look what is already available for free that bypasses the need for the more expensive corporate BES service (which used to cost me an additional $40 on top of my $60 voice plan).
My point here? If these are available for the Blackberry - how long do you think it will take for them to reach the iPhone? At the point where they reach the iPhone - how many people will want to keep paying that monthly Blackberry specific service fee?
Tip: Free Blackberry Services That I Use To Avoid Paying RIM $40 for their more expensive BES (Blackberry Entrprise Service) - instead I save 50% and pay only $19 for the BIS (Blackberry Internet Service)
Push Email: Google iMap pushes direct to the Blackberry - soon I predict it will do other devices as well
Calendar Sync: Google Mobile
Task Sync: RememberTheMilk - MilkSync for Blackberry
Contacts Sync: This part isn’t yet available for the Blackberry - but look what Spanning Sync has for the Mac and it’s not hard to see that with the Google Contacts API made available to developers that other versions will follow.
Reason # 5: Third Party Applications Are Sparse (but getting better) and the broad market acceptance of the iPhone will gnaw away at the will of new developers to specialize in BlackberryBlackberry’s strong suit has never been third party applications. This is starting to change and more developers are writing for Blackberry. Once the iPhone developers release cool third party applications and dwarf the sparse number available for the Blackberry, I predict you’ll see a lot of users making a switch.
These reasons by themselves don’t mean that Blackberrys are going away tomorrow. I do think that taken together they point to an interesting possible scenario of declining Blackberry popularity.
All of the reasons that I’ve carried a Blackberry for 18 years are suddenly disappearing. I think these trends are going to continue for the rest of 2008. With the introduction of the iPhone 3G combined with third party iPhone development - the Blackberry will never see the lofty heights (financial and popularity) that it enjoys today.
Source:
Blackberry Meltdown Coming Soon - Five Reasons RIM Popularity Will Peak This Year*|*Gear Diary 
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Blackberry Meltdown Coming Soon - Five Reasons RIM Popularity Will Peak This Year 
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