[JeepBB]

jfyi - foxcomm and BB are into profit sharing agreement for z3, q20 etc devices

Yes, they are. Though I'm not sure why you think that is relevant?

Chen made it quite clear that Foxconn alone would take the hit on any costs associated with making too many Z3's that ultimately remained unsold.
Given BB10's poor sales record over the last 18 months, I would be astonished if Foxconn made 100's of thousands of Z3's at the start. The loss to Foxconn if the Z3 didn't sell would be huge.

[birdman_38]

Chen made it quite clear that Foxconn alone would take the hit on any costs associated with making too many Z3's that ultimately remained unsold.
Given BB10's poor sales record over the last 18 months, I would be astonished if Foxconn made 100's of thousands of Z3's at the start. The loss to Foxconn if the Z3 didn't sell would be huge.

In other words, there will always be an inventory shortage as long as Foxconn is in control.

[kbz1960]

Which s worse? A shortage or millions sitting in a warehouse wrote down?

[Banco]

In other words, there will always be an inventory shortage as long as Foxconn is in control.

It's in their interests to sell as many as they can. It's not a conspiracy, it's a judgement.

[birdman_38]

It's in their interests to sell as many as they can. It's not a conspiracy, it's a judgement.

Absolutely it is. All sides are being cautious.

[JeepBB]

It's in their interests to sell as many as they can. It's not a conspiracy, it's a judgement.

Yes, it *is* in both Foxconn and BB's interest to sell as many as they can. However, at the point at which they made the initial production run decision, nobody knew if the Z3 would be a success... and, given the historical BB10 sales performance, the risk that Z3 would tank and leave Foxconn holding an expensive inventory was always significant.

Fans will always dwell on the upside "why didn't FC make a million Z3�s and fill their boots with profit?" seems to be the sentiment. I'm sure FC dwelt on the downside "if Z3 doesn't sell, FC will lose money and our CEO will be looking for scapegoats".

That initial production run was never going to be big... And I'm doubtful future runs will be much bigger as that inventory downside risk will always be present.

[JeepBB]

Which s worse? A shortage or millions sitting in a warehouse wrote down?

Heh-heh, I think it depends on who you are

For potential buyers, and for BB itself, a shortage is "bad" as folk can't buy what isn't available and they may buy something else.

For Foxconn, a shortage is embarrassing (though I've never known anyone to literally die from embarrassment ), but a full warehouse (even if the warehouse is slowly emptying as some are sold) is "very very bad"... and possibly "career-limiting" for some people in Foxconn.

[Konrad Andree Nordvik]

I think it's important to understand that unless someone here has some cold hard facts that show that BlackBerry has not sold more than 25k units then we will all have to wait until the 19th of June to see what's what.

In my opinion it does not make good business sense to only produce a limited run within an clearly well established market that Indonesia is. To do so could easily backfire on both companies with Foxconn losing credibility as a serious partner. Its also important for BlackBerry that the Z3 is well received otherwise it would make no sense to continue development of new cellphone's such as the Classic and Windermere.

Posted via CB10

[Ment]

I don't think Chen is going to comment on actual numbers on the Z3 on the ER. He may touch on why they are having supply issues but thats it. We know its not hundreds of thousands so whether its 25 or 100k doesn't really matter for revenue purposes.

[Konrad Andree Nordvik]

I don't think Chen is going to comment on actual numbers on the Z3 on the ER. He may touch on why they are having supply issues but thats it. We know its not hundreds of thousands so whether its 25 or 100k doesn't really matter for revenue purposes.

One way or the other his going to have to comment on handset sales. The Z3 is in my opinion an important indicator on his ability to understand the market and prove that he knows what he's doing. If he fails here he won't get a second chance.

Posted via CB10

[birdman_38]

One way or the other his going to have to comment on handset sales.

If sales of the Z3 are poor, he won't say anything about it at all.

[Ment]

One way or the other his going to have to comment on handset sales. The Z3 is in my opinion an important indicator on his ability to understand the market and prove that he knows what he's doing. If he fails here he won't get a second chance.

Posted via CB10

Yes surely he will comment on handsets but as an aggregate. If he were to speak specifically on the Z3 he could say 'we encountered challenges in initial distribution but are confident we will meet our projections' which isn't lying cause he has no way of knowing if the slow rollout will severely impact sales until next quarter. I think it will but am speaking from speculation.

[kartikeyarathi8]

Yes, they are. Though I'm not sure why you think that is relevant?

Chen made it quite clear that Foxconn alone would take the hit on any costs associated with making too many Z3's that ultimately remained unsold.
Given BB10's poor sales record over the last 18 months, I would be astonished if Foxconn made 100's of thousands of Z3's at the start. The loss to Foxconn if the Z3 didn't sell would be huge.

Agreed but it doesn't seem that foxconn is taking any risk with z3 production, look at the sales figures coming across.... they've played a safe bet...

[afhstingray]

Actually, I do.

Which is why I stated my case and the conclusion that yields.

I believe that no more than 25,000 Z3's have been sold. I guess that you disagree?

A few have appeared, here's one

BlackBerry Z3 Signed by John Chen on Sale for $1,000 Dollars | N4BB