[slagman5]

Alright, before I start, let me first state that if you search my posts here in these forums you'll see that I'm a proud BB 9900 owner and am anxiously awaiting the Q10, so I'm not a troll trying to stir up the waters.

Here is my issue. This is "Crackberry.com." We are, almost by definition, Blackberry fanboys. So sometimes I know it's hard to try to think objectively about this phone, platform, and company. What I'm wondering is, there is such a stark contrast in the reports on sales figures for the Z10. The CEO and members of this website are claiming they are selling out everywhere and that they are exceeding expectations, yet analyst companies claim their own surveys of stores have found that the Z10 is underperforming by a huge margin... Can anyone here try to put our own biases aside for a moment and provide some clear objective input here on who we should believe and why? I really want BB to be a success because I love my QWERTY keyboard and am not too pleased with Android's nerdtastic approach to mobile phones. And not even considering iPhone, so no need to really get into why with that... But I am really curious as to what these conflicting reports mean for the future of BB. I'm getting a Q10 regardless when it comes out here in the USA, but still, this issue has me worried...

[RubberChicken76]

Here is my issue. This is "Crackberry.com." We are, almost by definition, Blackberry fanboys. So sometimes I know it's hard to try to think objectively about this phone, platform, and company. What I'm wondering is, there is such a stark contrast in the reports on sales figures for the Z10. The CEO and members of this website are claiming they are selling out everywhere and that they are exceeding expectations, yet analyst companies claim their own surveys of stores have found that the Z10 is underperforming by a huge margin...

First, it's not just "the CEO and fanboys" that are being positive. There have also been positive comments from carriers and analysts as well. I've now been to one mobility place that said it "sold a few", and several stores that have been sold out, or selling well.

Really, though it comes down to a few things

- Is the analyst a bull or a bear? There's both and both have commented. Some said "selling well". Some said, "short supply and not selling well." Others have said "Sold well at first, now slowing down".

- Claiming its selling 'below expectations' begs the question of "who's expectation?". Is it a flop it if exceeds BlackBerry's sales targets for it, but it doesn't outsell the Samsung Galaxy or iPhone 5?

- We will know whether or not its doing as well as Blackberry needs it to when BlackBerry announces their numbers. Until then, might as well wait, because the indicators are all over the map.

IMO

[RubberChicken76]

Bulls:
BlackBerry boasts record early sales for Z10 in U.K., Canada | Mobile - CNET News
BlackBerry Outsells Competition At The UK's Largest Retail Store And In Business Sales - Seeking Alpha
BlackBerry 10 sees high demand, sellouts in UK - Dallas Business Journal
More analysts confirm BlackBerry Z10 sales are off to a strong start
AAPL: Jefferies Sees iPhone, Samsung Pause; BBRY Z10 Sales ‘Going Well’ - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com


Bears:
BlackBerry 10 May Have Been An Enormous, Record-Breaking Flop - Forbes
Canaccord slashes estimate of BlackBerry 10 sales by 85% - The Globe and Mail
BlackBerry boasts record early sales for Z10 in U.K., Canada | Mobile - CNET News
Early BlackBerry Z10 sales may not have been so hot after all | Mobile - CNET News

[carullo]

Well im not sure about everywhere but i can tell u this much ...rogers and bell in my city are sold out (did not preorder) .......problem is lot of people wrote this company off and its hard to admit they were wrong......

[hamzasalam]

Read this article, it gives some truth and clarity I believe

Read heaps of these everyday but this one has spent days and days researching and going into the streets to find real figures and feedback:

BlackBerry Outsells Competition At The U.K.'s Largest Retail Store And In Business Sales - Seeking Alpha

[oddboy]

The shop I got my z10 from on Feb 5 said they sold out in about 15 mins. They also said they had received a total of 12 for launch day, and 10 of them were pre orders. Luckily, my wife got one of the two remaining.

They said they were expecting another drop by Feb 10 and that order was for 20. I haven't been back since.

Note that this is a pretty small shop in a fairly low traffic part of town.

Is that good? I don't know.

[qbnkelt]

The only way to know the truth of the matter is to listen to the quarterly status call.

[Masahiro]

Take into consideration Thorsten Heins' recent announcement that BlackBerry has increased their production output to meet 'high demand'.

[BerryGuy4040]

I'm not really sure what you're worried about? Do you think BB will go bankrupt in a year and you'll be left with an unsupported phone? BB will never again own 60% of the market, those days are gone. But they have a solid product (my Z10 has no fatal flaws, from my perspective) and i believe they will be around for a while.

With regards to sales, the only people who know for sure work for BlackBerry; and they aren't talking. Everyone else is speculating, or making a SWAG.

Relax, test out the Z10 or Q10 and enjoy a great device.

[RubberChicken76]

The shop I got my z10 from on Feb 5 said they sold out in about 15 mins. They also said they had received a total of 12 for launch day, and 10 of them were pre orders. Luckily, my wife got one of the two remaining.

They said they were expecting another drop by Feb 10 and that order was for 20. I haven't been back since.

Note that this is a pretty small shop in a fairly low traffic part of town.

Is that good? I don't know.

Me either. Several users here have reported going into stores and hearing that none or 'only a few have sold'. The Bell store I was in yesterday, the clerk who was answering key questions about Z10 for me said that it's been selling really well, including 28 on launch day. Several people were trying them out while I was in there. At the kiosk outside, I saw two people walking about with Z10 boxes. In the Best Buy mobile store, they had it on special with Rogers for $99 ... but it was sold out. They had it in stock for the other (more expensive carriers). I noticed that people were gravitating to the Galaxy and iPhone 5 more than Z10, but Z10 more than the HTCs, LGs and other phones.

If their subscriber base grows again, I'll be happy. If their device shipments go over QoQ, I'll be happy. if they turn a profit, I'll be really happy. Honestly, I think they're more concerned with this and migrating BBOS customers than trying to outsell iPhone or Galaxy ... unrealistic. IMO.

The real test will be the end of their Q1 and Q2 because that will indicate based upon full global availability and full product line, as well as the legs of the platform outside of the initial hype.

[howarmat]

Me either. Several users here have reported going into stores and hearing that none or 'only a few have sold'. The Bell store I was in yesterday, the clerk who was answering key questions about Z10 for me said that it's been selling really well, including 28 on launch day. Several people were trying them out while I was in there. At the kiosk outside, I saw two people walking about with Z10 boxes. In the Best Buy mobile store, they had it on special with Rogers for $99 ... but it was sold out. They had it in stock for the other (more expensive carriers). I noticed that people were gravitating to the Galaxy and iPhone 5 more than Z10, but Z10 more than the HTCs, LGs and other phones.

If their subscriber base grows again, I'll be happy. If their device shipments go over QoQ, I'll be happy. if they turn a profit, I'll be really happy. Honestly, I think they're more concerned with this and migrating BBOS customers than trying to outsell iPhone or Galaxy ... unrealistic. IMO.

The real test will be the end of their Q1 and Q2 because that will indicate based upon full global availability and full product line, as well as the legs of the platform outside of the initial hype.

exactly, while there is a huge uptake right now that isnt a surprise at all. Its new and a ton of people had to wait a long time to get it. Once its out everywhere and all the blackberry fans have picked it up then it shifts a little. As interested as I am for the Q4 results the Q1 will really be more interesting. I have no doubt they will have more than the low estimate of 300K and probably over 500k for Q4. Q1 with the US in the mix I am hoping to see over 12+ sell thru again like a couple years ago. That would be terrific

[slagman5]

I'm not really sure what you're worried about? Do you think BB will go bankrupt in a year and you'll be left with an unsupported phone? BB will never again own 60% of the market, those days are gone. But they have a solid product (my Z10 has no fatal flaws, from my perspective) and i believe they will be around for a while.

With regards to sales, the only people who know for sure work for BlackBerry; and they aren't talking. Everyone else is speculating, or making a SWAG.

Relax, test out the Z10 or Q10 and enjoy a great device.

Hey, I have no doubts that they are great products. I expect nothing less from Blackberry. I love my 9900. Even though it's "technically" inferior to its competition, I feel it is a solid piece of hardware none-the-less. I just know that the general public is generally pretty stupid. They care more about what is "cool" and "in fashion" than what is actually a high quality product. So I'm sure you understand my concern over Blackberry since they are not "cool" anymore to the general public's eye.

But you all seem to suggest that when Blackberry announces their numbers that will tell the full story, I'll wait for that. I hate how the media will let their own biases affect what they're reporting. Whatever happened to giving the public the facts and letting us make up our own minds??

[compuease]

That is a very interesting article and while unscientific it does seem fair... I have a couple of US aquaintences from my IBM career days who I correspond regularily that have shorted BB, one fo quite a significant amount at the advice of his investment firm.. I am pointing him to this to perhaps protect himself... personally I'm neither long nor short as I don't want to play that game but I do own a fair amount. If I was shorting or longing, the latter would be my preference..

[Shawn Merrikin]

As an apple fan boy and hater of blackberries. I can say I am in awe of this device. (Currently broken though )
I find the OS and hardware way better than iphone.
That being said though I do miss my iphone for the apps. I know they will eventually come.

I should state that I did not buy this device or would not have bought this device, but was given it by my carrier to review it and write tips and tricks for them via twitter.

Another upside of iDevice is that when my iphone broke (twice) I can just walk into a store and be handed a new one. Now with my BB broken I have to send it in for repairs via my carrier which can take weeks.

[BB_Junky]

I believe the "Everyone wrote them Off" comment as I know that seems to be the case around here when people see I have the new phone. Most like it after actually holding on and trying it out but still are leary about jumping on hoard due to their past.
The change they did is amazing and has them heading in the right direction but it's not going to happen overnight. They have a lot of work ahead of them seeing that there are so many great smartphone platforms out there.

Posted via CB10

[slagman5]

So weird, a mod edited the title to get more comments and views, and after the edit, nobody replied on it anymore, lmao. :-D

[Masahiro]

So weird, a mod edited the title to get more comments and views, and after the edit, nobody replied on it anymore, lmao. :-D

That tends to happen a lot. Mods will sometimes close down a thread after it gets heated and they'll clean it up. Then they'll reopen the thread but it will just die soon after once people stop arguing.
I feel bad of course, so I run into the thread with guns blazing and start yelling at everyone to get the ball rolling again.

Now where were we with regards to who not to trust on the web...?

[Dapper37]

For the most part you can believe the carriers when they say something! most say things are going well, very well!

[hiya1987]

I work for one of the major UK retailers and we have sold out entirely of black units and are awaiting more so I do believe the hype! It's such a great handset and deserves all the plaudits it gets.

[njblackberry]

But how many units have sold? Being sold out of 100 is different than being sold out of 10,000.

Wait for the quarterly call the end of March. No one knows anything. And if you believe the carriers, well that's another issue.

[Whyareallthegoodnamestaken]

I believe the anecdotal evidence.

[greggebhardt]

I do not think we will really know how BB10 is going to work out till they get more units in the hands of the users. The Z10 introduction in the USA will be a big test! The Q10 would be icing on the cake!

[wilderr]

I think the real results will come after they launch in the US markets.



Posted via CB10

[web99]

I think the real results will come after they launch in the US markets.



Posted via CB10

I believe so as well.

[stberry]

talking about sales is not fair as the product is yet to release in us and china !!