[mickeyboat]

So I understand Orders, the number of BPs ordered. I understand shipments, the number of PBs shipped. I understand returns, the number returned broke or what ever. RIM should have a very good handle on these numbers and they are all important, especially shipments, since RIM gets paid for the units when shipped (at least if they operate like most businesses). Now what I do not understand is the number sold by the thousands of retail outlets, internet sales outlets, and other users across the world. Exactly how is RIM supposed to know with any accuracy of that number? I suppose RIM should know the direct RIM sales/shipments and numbers sold to businesses/enterprise users but those are the only shipped units they should know with certainty that have been sold to users. These businesses have no obligation to report back to RIM and RIM only gets an idea with new orders from the same outlets when their inventory is low. I know the number of OS updates might be a measure but will always lag, as many folks like me do not upgrade every time an OS revision comes out. My poor old MIT MBA needs you Harvard types to educate me.

[Economist101]

Now what I do not understand is the number sold by the thousands of retail outlets, internet sales outlets, and other users across the world. Exactly how is RIM supposed to know with any accuracy of that number?

Well they're all wi-fi devices, so when a unit is powered on and "registered," RIM's computer would note the activation and registration. The number of units "registered" is the approximate sold number.

Full disclosure, I do not hold an MBA from Harvard.

[mickeyboat]

Well they're all wi-fi devices, so when a unit is powered on and "registered," RIM's computer would note the activation and registration. The number of units "registered" is the approximate sold number.

Full disclosure, I do not hold an MBA from Harvard.

Some percentage of users do not use WiFi but instead use the Bridge Browser only. Would RIM see these units?

[yzf.shaun]

Some percentage of users do not use WiFi but instead use the Bridge Browser only. Would RIM see these units?

You need WIFI on the initial setup and registration.

[Vidge]

Some percentage of users do not use WiFi but instead use the Bridge Browser only. Would RIM see these units?

WiFi is required to set up the unit.

(Not a Harvard MBA)

[Erandhawa]

As economist101 stated the wifi connection would verify the amount of activated units. Now as far as reporting you would be surprised about how a lot of these corporate companies monitoring reporting. Though you are not forced to report a lot of companies won't recognize you as an authorized reseller unless you do. I run my own businesses and reporting is downloaded automatically from my BOS systems to corporate. Also the wholesalers I purchase from are required to report back to larger organizations such as Hershey, Philip Morris, RJ Reynolds, etc. If they do not report back they do not recieve incentives and kickbacks and potentially can lose the authorization to distribute. As with my systems if I don't report for certain items I will lose certain rebates so its in my favor to report.
Now looking at the larger names rim has chosen to distribute their Playbooks I am sure they get an estimated sales amount from each vendor and weigh that against the amount of units activated to get a fairly accurate sales amount.

[minnick]

The wifi method could work but wouldn't be the most reliable. Erandhawa's suggestion is probably more accurate. Those types of "agreements" are embedded in contracts and for a good reason (don't say big brother).

I'd weigh a combination of that with doing some research. You'd be better off knowing how RIMM manages their supply chain and how integrated (and which way) it is. Then you can reverse engineer the numbers to figure it out more closely.

[zank]

maybe i mis understood your question but heres my explanation. RIM only reports shipped devices (all of which will not necessarily be able to be sold to consumers), i.e. shipped to retailers, whether that is to individual retailers, or to a wholesaler who forwards to smaller outlets. When RIM ships it, depending on its accounting methodologies, it could make an entry for accrued revenue, i.e. revenue on its books, but not fully earned yet (since the retailed might be expected to only remit sold $ to RIM, and not advance all money to rim for units). They probably have a returns contingency, i.e. how many customers will return, and with fancy accounting they can basically set up, if they were so inclined to increase their revenue, a method where it accounts for revenue when shipped to retailer, but the terms with retailers are such that retailers can also send them back to RIM if unsold, instead of actually paying RIM in advance, and thus owning the stock of units. So it all depends on how RIM accounts for it on the books. If they want to inflate numbers for example, they will tell retailers they'll send them a million units each, and to just send back the unsold ones, thus the retailer has no liability and sends unsold stuff back to RIM, RIM reports the million units sold as revenue, but next quarter or whenever will have to take a hit as it will then have to have a negative accounting number for returns of unsold units. Again, there are different methods to report these numbers and its at a company's discretion how it does it.

As for if RIM actually knows how many are actually sold and in the hands of consumers, unless RIM uses the wifi method mentioned above, or has some other detailed inventory management systems with retailers, I dont think even it knows how many are sold to consumers until it gets it returns. I do think the wifi method is pretty reliable, since not only do you need wifi to set up device, but say somehow you by pass that (which most wont be bale to so youre already talking 99% accuracy), and only use BB bridge, the PB still polls the server once in a while to check for updates, thus remitting to rim the serial number. And seeing as to how the device is useless without wifi and even fi someone was **** bent on only using BB bridge, if they turned on wifi even once, the PB polls rim's server to check for updates, and rim can telly with really good accuracy how many activated, thus sold units are out there.

[MarketRide]

My thought is that RIM doesn't want to disclose the numbers for one of the reasons below:
- sales are not what was expected
- they don't want to set a precedent to always have to declare direct sales or activations - they have stopped declaring activations for phones as no other manufacturer does
- They can't easily reconcile returns and sales to give an accurate number

[His Shadow]

I'd go with your second point.

[peter9477]

When we register, we have to use our BBID. The device supplies its PIN. If the unit is returned, the PIN will not change (or, at least, the serial number will not) when they wipe it and prepare it for resale. Thus they can very accurately tell when a unit has been returned, except in the unlikely (I think) case where a reseller would not bother wiping the unit after the original purchaser returned it.

The only reason for not reporting sales is that they don't want to. Too bad, but we're stuck with guessing and waiting for the analysts to poll the channel again and make some more rough estimates.

[Thumbtyper]

The bottom line is this.

If RIM was proud of its sell thru they would shout it from a mountain top. They are clearly hiding it..

Your brain should now be able to decipher if playbook sales are good or bad.

[takeo]

Well most companies just report "shipped" devices, because that sounds like more.

Just today Acer announced that they expect only 50% in sales on their tablets than estimated... but still happily they announce 800.000 units "shipped".

Actually, with RIM, it's just an excuse to say they don't know the numbers sold.

As a matter of fact, just like Apple with the iOS devices, RIM forces you to activate your device and download the newest OS prior to use. Therefore, not based on Wifi data, but based on the BB Pin, which is send to the RIM server, they know EXACTLY how many devices are activated - of course this is not accurately the number of devices sold, as we have demo units in stores... but those might not be more than a few thousand.

Therefore, to save themself from even more harm, they just say "we don't know".

[minnick]

maybe i mis understood your question but heres my explanation. RIM only reports shipped devices (all of which will not necessarily be able to be sold to consumers), i.e. shipped to retailers, whether that is to individual retailers, or to a wholesaler who forwards to smaller outlets. When RIM ships it, depending on its accounting methodologies, it could make an entry for accrued revenue, i.e. revenue on its books, but not fully earned yet (since the retailed might be expected to only remit sold $ to RIM, and not advance all money to rim for units). They probably have a returns contingency, i.e. how many customers will return, and with fancy accounting they can basically set up, if they were so inclined to increase their revenue, a method where it accounts for revenue when shipped to retailer, but the terms with retailers are such that retailers can also send them back to RIM if unsold, instead of actually paying RIM in advance, and thus owning the stock of units. So it all depends on how RIM accounts for it on the books. If they want to inflate numbers for example, they will tell retailers they'll send them a million units each, and to just send back the unsold ones, thus the retailer has no liability and sends unsold stuff back to RIM, RIM reports the million units sold as revenue, but next quarter or whenever will have to take a hit as it will then have to have a negative accounting number for returns of unsold units. Again, there are different methods to report these numbers and its at a company's discretion how it does it.

As for if RIM actually knows how many are actually sold and in the hands of consumers, unless RIM uses the wifi method mentioned above, or has some other detailed inventory management systems with retailers, I dont think even it knows how many are sold to consumers until it gets it returns. I do think the wifi method is pretty reliable, since not only do you need wifi to set up device, but say somehow you by pass that (which most wont be bale to so youre already talking 99% accuracy), and only use BB bridge, the PB still polls the server once in a while to check for updates, thus remitting to rim the serial number. And seeing as to how the device is useless without wifi and even fi someone was **** bent on only using BB bridge, if they turned on wifi even once, the PB polls rim's server to check for updates, and rim can telly with really good accuracy how many activated, thus sold units are out there.

This is why I avoided pointing out Revenue Recognition policies. They're tryna figure out units sold n you won't be able to unless RIMM notes the multiplier in the notes. Which I haven't seen.

[zank]

ultimately i agree with one of the posters above. If RIM was proud of its PB sales and thought it had stellar numbers, it would have certainly given them. Because they're not, and the number is probably deplorable, they revealed the very minimum they could in this situation, which is the units shipped. not even reporting the units shipped would have just been horrible and speculation would have been that they sold ridiculously low numbers, so they revealed the minimum they could.

I can guarantee you RIM knows the numbers within 95% accuracy, which is reasonably accurate for everyone. Most retailers have an inventory management with daily, weekly, monthly reports. If RIM did its job, which it should have, it would have good relationships with its largest retailers and be able to aquire these numbers within reasonable timeframes.

If you remember a while ago Android was revealing # of units activated, because they were proud of those numbers and they were technically higher than apples. Apple poked holes in the theory though saying they were even counting updates. Nonetheless when you CAN compete with your competition, you report numbers on the same footing as theirs. in this case RIM knows it failed miserably.

[OMGitworks]

RIM could have a number that is 95%+ accurate. All they need to do is look at activations which they control and inventory which they should have access to. It would be highly unusually if Best Buy, Staples and other large retailers did not have to report sales and returns back to RIM on at least a weekly basis.

RIM either a) has a 10 year old inventory and sales manangment chain or b) calculated the number and refuses to report it. Either way, not good.

[minnick]

pretty sure like you guys said they just didn't want to release the number because it was lower than expected and solidifying that number to analysts might cause even more of a selloff.