[lawguyman]

RIM has let me down so many times in the past that I don't want to write down what I am thinking.

WARNING - the content of this post is based entirely on SPECULATION and reading tea leaves.

Here are the tea leaves:

1. Massive BB outage and issues one week before Devcon.
2. In a thread about Skype on the BB Beta Zone, the Playbook project manager stated that we'll "find out before too long " what RIM's strategy is in this and other areas but stating that he knows nothing about any Skype App.
3. Various leaks of Android devices running BBM have been reported.
4. Balsillie at earnings call: "Well, we've got a lot of planned announcements at DevCon in October and we've got � we're announcing our new development platform for QNX and our QNX-based phones, when we're launching the development phones so that people can start experiencing the QNX phones and the applications. So, we've got a lot of things planned, at this point we want to be careful not to give up too many of our secrets and specifications on the product and delivery dates, but we're very excited and the fact that we've already got the development phones operating right now and we're testing them is a great sign.
5. Lazaridis at earnings call: Coming Improvements in Playbook in
a. Email
b. Contacts
c. Calendar
d. It will also work with "basic email services"
e. Android Player
f. Enhanced Web browsing
g. Consumer Apps
h. 10,000 movies and TV shows
i. Games
j. Bridge

Reading the Tea Leaves:

a. This massive worldwide outage is taking place one week before Devcon? Coincidence? I think not. I believe that RIM is currently upgrading its entire backend to support a brand new Blackberry Product Ecosystem, the BBX Ecosytem. This outage, more than anything else, tells me that the OS2 release is coming SOON, most likely at Devcon.

b. BBM is going cross-platform. An announcement will be made and demos will be performed but it will not be released until after BBX phones are released. BBM music may not be cross platform.

c. BBX Phones are coming in 2011. This will be the big surprise at Devcon. Balsille hinted at an earlier release when he said "we want to be careful not to give up too many of our secrets and specifications on the product and delivery dates."

d. BBX ecossytem includes new movie store, new app store, and new music store making for a truly integrated content delivery platform.

e. BBM Video Chat - coming soon to BBX devices.

f. Several missing key apps will be released. Android Apps will be available in the App store. A few apps built with the native SDK will be profiled.

That is all.

[NickA]

Pretty good speculative points. I saw a couple other threads that mentioned the outage is due to RIM making major changes to get ready for new features. I would agree but, that's their core system. They live and die by that backend, and it's what they are known for. If their are willing to risk having people think that they have an unstable backend framework, then if they are making changes they must be significant.

[lawguyman]

Pretty good speculative points. I saw a couple other threads that mentioned the outage is due to RIM making major changes to get ready for new features. I would agree but, that's their core system. They live and die by that backend, and it's what they are known for. If their are willing to risk having people think that they have an unstable backend framework, then if they are making changes they must be significant.

This is major surgery. Some chaos is unavoidable.

[drjay868]

My guess is that its just them upgrading to BIS4.1 that was announced earlier in the week or last week. Is 4.1 needed for PBOS2.0 and BBX? I guess we'll find out.

[Vostro15]

As much as I hope they make BBM cross platform I can't help but feel that this would be an awful business decision. The BBM-and-Curve-loving youths in Europe will no longer have any incentive to stick with BlackBerrys, it would seem to me like they are encouraging people to move platform, kinda like 'Oh, you only buy our products cos we have BBM? Let us make the switch easier for you'. The only reason why I could possibly see this making sense would be if RIM wanted to focus on business users again.

[lawguyman]

As much as I hope they make BBM cross platform I can't help but feel that this would be an awful business decision. The BBM-and-Curve-loving youths in Europe will no longer have any incentive to stick with BlackBerrys, it would seem to me like they are encouraging people to move platform, kinda like 'Oh, you only buy our products cos we have BBM? Let us make the switch easier for you'. The only reason why I could possibly see this making sense would be if RIM wanted to focus on business users again.

BBM on other platforms would not be free. RIM either charges for the App or the service. Plus, BBM on BB phones will have advantages : BBM video chat and BBM music.

Crossplatform messaging already exists and is growing. RIM can't build a wall around BBM and think that it will prosper. I think this is a smart move even if it is a little risky for the reasons that you mention.

[Kobol]

I hope that is the case, I’ve been playing some of the native games recently (despite the overcharging of UK customers) and they do look good, it just shows how good the platform is.

In reference to BBM on other platforms...hmmm…it’s a tough one….as much a I dislike RIM I really like BlackBerrys, but giving me an option to have the same functionality on another device is risky, as my signature states I am considering another platform. Its dangerous, if there is an Android phone with a half decent keyboard and BBM I think RIM would loose out on some toe teenage and SME market.

I hope they don’t focus on just business, they are losing ground there as well so need to have a decent consumer base to keep the money flowing + consumes upgrade their products more than businesses.

All the points mentioned in the OPs tealeaf section sound awesome, I hope RIM can execute these plans this time around.

[rsxsniper]

well dear friend, i sincerely hope u r right. though i love my playbook so far(launch day buyer), i just hate it when the general public belittle this awesome table because it doesnt have a native email.

[Vostro15]

BBM on other platforms would not be free. RIM either charges for the App or the service. Plus, BBM on BB phones will have advantages : BBM video chat and BBM music.

Crossplatform messaging already exists and is growing. RIM can't build a wall around BBM and think that it will prosper. I think this is a smart move even if it is a little risky for the reasons that you mention.

I see what you mean, though I would consider myself in the group of BBM-loving teens and this whole movement seemed to start about 5 years ago when businessmen would give their kids their old blackberrys and gradually from there it has become the phone of choice for various groups of people. The only reason other cross-platform messaging hasn't taken off with us is because it is so difficult to get entire social groups to simultaneously switch platform. While you could use the same reasoning to say that BlackBerrys will be okay because these same social groups will not move to a different handset manufacturer, RIM should avoid giving these users the choice, and by launching BBM on Android or iOS they would certainly be giving many customers and option which they would have otherwise never have considered.

[lawguyman]

I see what you mean, though I would consider myself in the group of BBM-loving teens and this whole movement seemed to start about 5 years ago when businessmen would give their kids their old blackberrys and gradually from there it has become the phone of choice for various groups of people. The only reason other cross-platform messaging hasn't taken off with us is because it is so difficult to get entire social groups to simultaneously switch platform. While you could use the same reasoning to say that BlackBerrys will be okay because these same social groups will not move to a different handset manufacturer, RIM should avoid giving these users the choice, and by launching BBM on Android or iOS they would certainly be giving many customers and option which they would have otherwise never have considered.

RIM has to make phones that are competitive. If it does not, BBM or no BBM, RIM is history. If RIM has great phones and sells BBM, it could actually grow the platform and be profitable for RIM. The key has always been good phones.

[OMGitworks]

I seriously doubt preparing for the PB upgrades would crash their back-end BB systems, especially overseas. I want 2.0 badly but it will gets here when it gets here. Even then, I will not download it immediately until I see what it "un" fixes. I have been burned on many Bold updates that change things in ways I don't like or have major bugs. I am sure this one won't and that 2.0 will be great, but I don't think there is a decent way to predict when RIM might drop it and even then if it will be that great on release day. I'm hoping for a fast, mostly bug free release!!

[Vostro15]

RIM has to make phones that are competitive. If it does not, BBM or no BBM, RIM is history. If RIM has great phones and sells BBM, it could actually grow the platform and be profitable for RIM. The key has always been good phones.

I absolutely agree with this. I am assuming that I represent the majority of teenagers using Blackberrys, which might be slightly wrong but this is how I see it:

RIM keep BBM a Blackberry exclusive: I stay on Blackberry until others begin to move over or a cross-platform messaging service takes off.

RIM move BBM cross-platform and phone releases remain disappointing: I move to Android/iOS where I have more freedom - would love a LG Optimus Q2 with BBM!

RIM move BBM cross-platform and phone releases are encouraging: If hardware can compete with the top of the line Android devices, more apps are released and they start to stick to their word then I have no problem with continuing to use BlackBerry devices.

Having said all this, I think the technology industry will slowly slide into a monopoly situation, with users wanting seamless integration between desktop/tablet/laptop/phone/other devices... I would have said that Apple has the advantage here had it not been for their premium prices, so I can see Google winning this one (with Google+, Google Music, Android, search, Chrome OS) etc, but I do think it is fairly open... I consider RIM the outsider though (behind Microsoft)... This is all entirely theoretical though and I'm talking 10+ years time when I think people will be loyal to one platform!

[schlammuuagar]

If OS 2 is as big as the speculation is implying, RIM is going to screw it up. No public beta's? This is heading for a disaster. Think about it. Why isn't RIM getting this software to as many people as possible to test to ensure it's a success?

[Blacklac]

They have been testing it, for months.

[NickA]

If OS 2 is as big as the speculation is implying, RIM is going to screw it up. No public beta's? This is heading for a disaster. Think about it. Why isn't RIM getting this software to as many people as possible to test to ensure it's a success?

Maybe they are, see this thread: http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...ds-app-658921/

Maybe they have been as good as Apple for keeping their new products and updates private.

[brucep1]

Maybe they are, see this thread: http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...ds-app-658921/

Maybe they have been as good as Apple for keeping their new products and updates private.

Wasn't iOS 5 open to all developers months before launch?

[Skeevecr]

If OS 2 is as big as the speculation is implying, RIM is going to screw it up. No public beta's? This is heading for a disaster. Think about it. Why isn't RIM getting this software to as many people as possible to test to ensure it's a success?

The logical conclusion to make on a lack of public betas is that it won't be released to everyone just after devconn, although a beta won't be that long since it will be mostly about ensuring a lack of problems in the actual upgrade itself.

[schlammuuagar]

Maybe they have been as good as Apple for keeping their new products and updates private.

iOS 5 has been is beta for quite some time, and every part of it posted through out the beta on every major Apple blog. There were no surprises given the launch today.

[BSFA2008]

thanks lawguy. Your speculation is much better than that other guy's "not speculation".

We'll see if you are right soon enough.

[blackjack93117]

5. Lazaridis at earnings call: Coming Improvements in Playbook in
a. Email
b. Contacts
c. Calendar
d. It will also work with "basic email services"
e. Android Player
f. Enhanced Web browsing
g. Consumer Apps
h. 10,000 movies and TV shows
i. Games
j. Bridge

If this is it, I am going to be as disappointed as so many were in iphone 4S.

Nothing in the list I particularly care about - unless there are some killer android apps.
By killer I mean something more useful than games. Professional apps not consumer apps.

I want acrobat reader PDF improvments, improvements in the "to go" suite, using phone for bluetooth remote keyboard would knock me out - and some form of better cursor placement. Browser improvements, like multitasking in tabs, better yet, multiple browsers open simultaneously, that's all that is on my list.

A few surprises we didn't expect would be fun.

[lawguyman]

Unfortunately, a recent post by the Blackberry Project Manager on the Beta Zone forums suggests that I am wrong and that it will be some time until OS2 is released.

Sorry if I got anyone's hopes up.

[world traveler and former ceo]

If this is it, I am going to be as disappointed as so many were in iphone 4S.

Nothing in the list I particularly care about - unless there are some killer android apps.
By killer I mean something more useful than games. Professional apps not consumer apps.

I want acrobat reader PDF improvments, improvements in the "to go" suite, using phone for bluetooth remote keyboard would knock me out - and some form of better cursor placement. Browser improvements, like multitasking in tabs, better yet, multiple browsers open simultaneously, that's all that is on my list.

A few surprises we didn't expect would be fun.

ONly 5 days to DEVCON !!

... i am sure there will be some exciting announcements next week! .... all good! ... the Playbook will only continue to improve with OTA software updates and improvements to the ecosystem .. these are ALL underway!!

Enjoy the Playbook experience .. I do!

[rickgainsmith]

Unfortunately, a recent post by the Blackberry Project Manager on the Beta Zone forums suggests that I am wrong and that it will be some time until OS2 is released.

Sorry if I got anyone's hopes up.

Hey, anyone that expects RIM to meet or surpass expectations it's fool on them, not anyone else.

Hate to say it but installed iOS 5 on my iPad today and wow they have done a great job.

I love the keyboard improvements, gestures, iCloud (no more iTunes for me!). Haven't found any bugs yet, they beta tested, they've improved and added hundreds of features.

I wouldn't be surprised if Rim is delaying OS 2.0 so its at least competitive! Makes me think next year, heck maybe longer!...

[lawguyman]

I wouldn't be surprised if Rim is delaying OS 2.0 so its at least competitive! Makes me think next year, heck maybe longer!...

I am not impressed with iOS. I think the improvements have been hoe-hum.

RIM has to release something sometime. It can't chase stupid features like Siri that I guarantee that people will play around with but never really use. We have had voice searching that actually works well on BBs for a long time now but no one uses it. Why? Who knows? It is easier to speak than it is to type. I think people just prefer to type.