[colonel]

I predict bad times for the trolls

The PB with current software is pretty much rock solid (at least for me) including used with bridge software with BB Torch.

The initial mistakes RIM made were:
1. Release with buggy software
2. No email PIM (not really an issue due to browser but some people like to be baby sat) - will be out September
3. No 3G version - will be out September

Lets look into our Crystal ball

This is what I predict:

a. As test bed for QNX PB will provide vast experience to RIM for stable and functional QNX phone range next year

b. PB will gradually pick up sales based on quality, feedback, only truly portable 7" tablet, 3G version in September and crucially, take up by corporates and government agencies

c. OS 7 phones will be a success, boot strapping on growing RIM market share at the lower end, loyal RIM fanbase and the excellent screens and keyboards

d. PB will build further on OS 7 success

e. 2012 will be the year of QNX. Hopefully RIM will hit home runs with new QNX phones which will also build PB sales based on QNX.

f. 2012 will also have bulk of 2-3 year iphone 3/4 first generation coming to end of contract and looking for something different. i predict Apple iphone expansion will stall as market becomes saturated and people look at the alternatives. Android, WP7 and BB will benefit. I think WebOS looks like the poorest player at the moment.

f. If all goes well with QNX phones, BB will update PB second half-2012. If QNX phones are big failure, RIM will probably survive but need a miracle to stay as major player.

2013-2014 ??
i. Apple: Remaining number 1 in cost and cache but now well behind in sales
ii. Android: Biggest market share but mostly through low cost devices.
iii. WP7: will shock everyone with growth, particularly propelled by Nokia's excellent hardware (WP7 Mango in N8 or C6-01 body with fast CPU anyone - yum yum!) and its dominace of some very large markets, such as India (still smartphone market leader) and Europe (At top of volume phones with Samsung Neck and Neck)
iv. RIM: Solid sales with best keyboard device and still holding on to many corporates and government agencies with its fingernails

the world smartphone market is plenty big enough for 4-7 players



rgds

[DaveTheA]

This is a pretty optimistic view, but there's nothing here that _couldn't_ happen...as long as RIM commits to making the OS7/QNX devices work out [and those devices live up to their potential].

[avaio]

the N8 is really cluttered, not a good OS. ppl will just get android instead. the browser is slow and its hard to find what you're looking for

[sportline]

the N8 is really cluttered, not a good OS. ppl will just get android instead. the browser is slow and its hard to find what you're looking for

what he means is Nokia (n8) hardware mated with windows phone software. with upgraded internal of course, 1GHz processor etc.
not the symbian stuff, its terrible.

[rickgainsmith]

I think the 'stand alone' business plan has been blown out of the water by the dominence of Apple. Licence QNX and create an ecosystem. More Developers, more partners, more accessories, more users. Sony, Lenovo, IBM, Cisco, leverage the business side, its what Rim are good at. Games etc will come when developers see a large user base.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[colonel]

I think the 'stand alone' business plan has been blown out of the water by the dominence of Apple. Licence QNX and create an ecosystem. More Developers, more partners, more accessories, more users. Sony, Lenovo, IBM, Cisco, leverage the business side, its what Rim are good at. Games etc will come when developers see a large user base.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

yes I agree.
RIM should get the full native code developer kit out there asap and think hard about open source license for QNX.

I take a different view on Apple from most people, I think they are 1-2 years away from peak saturation. Apple phones and devices are good but they have no strategy for the mid-low market and will end up as a minority high-end player.

[blackjack93117]

Not a bad prediction - but where did you get the crystal ball?

[s219]

I take a different view on Apple from most people, I think they are 1-2 years away from peak saturation. Apple phones and devices are good but they have no strategy for the mid-low market and will end up as a minority high-end player.

Actually, there have been signs that they are about to aggressively go after the low end of the market in phones at least. Some people point to the $49 3GS on AT&T as an example, but rumblings about future products suggest low-cost prepaid iPhones for the international market, with a focus on Asia. In the last two quarterly conference calls, Tim Cook suggested they may be gearing up to go after the low end of the market internationally. It's worth listening to those calls as general crystal ball material for the entire market, not just Apple.

[sportline]

Well the curve is selling very well in indonesia. Cost abot $225 or so,unlocked. As for Cheaper handsets, How cheap?

Sent from my Dell Streak using Tapatalk

[Barefoot_Kevin]

Not a bad prediction - but where did you get the crystal ball?

I think they found it here

[kbz1960]

All I want is predictive text, IM apps like yahoo messenger, better control over file management etc. Anything would be icing on the cake.

[Snoke]

Wait and see things sky rocket when RIM with QNX invade cars. With over 1 million cars produced worldwide each week, even 1% is 10k each week.
People could have thier smartphone, computer tablet, and car all running QNX and working in sync. The potential to WOW us is there, they just need to do it.

[colonel]

Actually, there have been signs that they are about to aggressively go after the low end of the market in phones at least. Some people point to the $49 3GS on AT&T as an example, but rumblings about future products suggest low-cost prepaid iPhones for the international market, with a focus on Asia. In the last two quarterly conference calls, Tim Cook suggested they may be gearing up to go after the low end of the market internationally. It's worth listening to those calls as general crystal ball material for the entire market, not just Apple.

its a good point. MS or Apple going after the cheapo market could change things.
but it doesn't seem to make sense for apple's current model.
if they made a cheap phone and reduced their provider subsidy to zero they would need to be sure they could make a killing just from the app store.

BB also dominates the keyboard phones. Phones like the HTC desire Z or 7 Pro didn't do very well.

There are many people who will only have phones with physical keyboards for messaging (e.g. my wife).

The reason I came back to BB was the shear amount of phone calls I missed on my HTC Sensation and iphone 4 due to the fiddly swipe pick up.

There is really no competition to the 9780 or the new 99xx series. They will never dominate the market but they will always have a major position.

[s219]

Wait and see things sky rocket when RIM with QNX invade cars. With over 1 million cars produced worldwide each week, even 1% is 10k each week.
People could have thier smartphone, computer tablet, and car all running QNX and working in sync. The potential to WOW us is there, they just need to do it.

It's already in cars. QNX has a long history of embedded applications that occurred long before RIM came along.

I think the ability of vehicles and devices to interoperate is far more dependent on communication/connectivity than on whatever OSes (same, or different) are running on all the devices. If you look at some of the high end integration happening nowadays -- and I will just pick iPhone and BMW as an example -- it has nothing to do with the OSes being common (they are not). It has everything to do with the capabilities of each platform to operate through a known common connectivity standard.

[blackjack93117]

Wait and see things sky rocket when RIM with QNX invade cars. With over 1 million cars produced worldwide each week, even 1% is 10k each week.
People could have thier smartphone, computer tablet, and car all running QNX and working in sync. The potential to WOW us is there, they just need to do it.

And then we are supposed to somehow keep our eyes on the road?

[blackjack93117]

Actually, there have been signs that they are about to aggressively go after the low end of the market in phones at least. Some people point to the $49 3GS on AT&T as an example, but rumblings about future products suggest low-cost prepaid iPhones for the international market, with a focus on Asia. In the last two quarterly conference calls, Tim Cook suggested they may be gearing up to go after the low end of the market internationally. It's worth listening to those calls as general crystal ball material for the entire market, not just Apple.

Oh god I hope not - that has been their biggest mistake going after the fickle consumer low end market instead of focusing on the high quality professional devices....

How many more pink and cherry colored Pearl and Style type devices are we going to have to endure? Nobody wants or needs BlackBerry for that - there are so many others already there, why compete?

Focus on your strengths RIM .. the professional market that got you where you are and attracted faux-professionals who just want to LOOK professional...focus focus.. professional is sexy...
...
.

[s219]

its a good point. MS or Apple going after the cheapo market could change things.
but it doesn't seem to make sense for apple's current model.
if they made a cheap phone and reduced their provider subsidy to zero they would need to be sure they could make a killing just from the app store.

BB also dominates the keyboard phones. Phones like the HTC desire Z or 7 Pro didn't do very well.

There are many people who will only have phones with physical keyboards for messaging (e.g. my wife).

The reason I came back to BB was the shear amount of phone calls I missed on my HTC Sensation and iphone 4 due to the fiddly swipe pick up.

There is really no competition to the 9780 or the new 99xx series. They will never dominate the market but they will always have a major position.

You can use Apple's iPod strategy (which we can look at historically) to see how they expand into a market. They establish themselves at the high end, and then launch into various mid- and low-end segments *if* they perceive an opportunity. The iPod range runs from $49 to $249 nowadays, and you can buy them in vending machines! How's that for reaching down low.

I don't know if the $49 iPhone 3GS is them testing the water, but it definitely boosted sales. If anything, a phone is an easier product to sell for peanuts since you can count on cell plan revenues (which Apple gets a bite of). I can see them going to a free iPhone option and counting on the cell plan to provide the bulk of revenue (which is not new -- many other companies have done this with basic cell phones and feature phones). I don't think app revenues are big enough to count on at the moment, though it could help make the case.

Your mention of the keyboard reminded me of another rumor, that there might be an iPhone 5 configuration with a keyboard just because Steve Jobs wanted to pressure RIM. As much of a **** he can be, I don't think it would make sense. Apple has made it clear that the touchscreen is their focus. I also don't know how many people really do avoid the iPhone because of the lack of a keyboard. My wife used to say that, but she ditched her Curve for a Verizon iPhone in Feb and never looked back.