Too excited for BB10 to watch stock price today BUT ......

**TomJasper** · 12-20-2012, 09:30 AM

We might break north of $14 today yet. I figured it would be Friday before we break north of $14. Don't forget once we break out above $16 there will be VERY LARGE pressure on the shorts!

You listening up Patriko, get your "boys" ready to blow out these shorts.

**Sith_Apprentice** · 12-20-2012, 09:41 AM

Originally Posted by TomJasper

We might break north of $14 today yet. I figured it would be Friday before we break north of $14. Don't forget once we break out above $16 there will be VERY LARGE pressure on the shorts!

You listening up Patriko, get your "boys" ready to blow out these shorts.

That depends entirely upon today's announcement if it stays even where it is (though the announcement is at 5pm today). If it is worse than expected you will likely see a steep drop. If it is better, you might see it rise.

**peter9477** · 12-20-2012, 09:49 AM

So to summarize: we know it will either go down, or go up. Or stay close to where it is. Glad we got that cleared up! ;-)

**Sith_Apprentice** · 12-20-2012, 09:53 AM

Originally Posted by peter9477

So to summarize: we know it will either go down, or go up. Or stay close to where it is. Glad we got that cleared up! ;-)

Yep. We know nothing as of yet lol. 5pm will bring news, and lets hope RIM stays very strong in their cash on hand, otherwise this might be a very long 6 weeks til BB10.

**TomJasper** · 12-20-2012, 09:58 AM

IMHO the good news leaked already.

There is a certain baked in expectation in the market, has been for a few weeks, yet the main focus and catalyst is BB10, that's what drives the price for the next 3-4 months, more so in the run up to Jan.30.2013

Originally Posted by Sith_Apprentice

That depends entirely upon today's announcement if it stays even where it is (though the announcement is at 5pm today). If it is worse than expected you will likely see a steep drop. If it is better, you might see it rise.

**Sith_Apprentice** · 12-20-2012, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by TomJasper

IMHO the good news leaked already.

There is a certain baked in expectation in the market, has been for a few weeks, yet the main focus and catalyst is BB10, that's what drives the price for the next 3-4 months, more so in the run up to Jan.30.2013

I do hope you are right. BB10 should start having real impact on the stock starting 31 Jan (launch announcement, availability, features, etc). Then you will see sales numbers start to take sway, and *hopefully* bring the stop back up into the $35+ range come end of March early April

**BThunderW** · 12-20-2012, 10:29 AM

I'm Long on RIMM but I don't expect the news to be that good. But it'd rather be pleasantly surprised then horribly disappointed.

**bluetroll** · 12-20-2012, 10:47 AM

goals are set quite low and not one analyst is expecting record #'s. The 2 main items that they are focusing on are:

1. are they still increasing subscribers (>80mil)
2. is the cash flow still positive. (last time they announced additional +$100 mil to cash flow)

What I'm hoping is that BB subscribers that have waited this long, are going to wait it out another qtr for BB10. So subscriber #'s will not decrease as rapidly. However at the same time, new subs aren't going to buy a BB knowing BB10 is just around the corner!

**Sith_Apprentice** · 12-20-2012, 11:49 AM

Originally Posted by bluetroll

goals are set quite low and not one analyst is expecting record #'s. The 2 main items that they are focusing on are:

1. are they still increasing subscribers (>80mil)
2. is the cash flow still positive. (last time they announced additional +$100 mil to cash flow)

What I'm hoping is that BB subscribers that have waited this long, are going to wait it out another qtr for BB10. So subscriber #'s will not decrease as rapidly. However at the same time, new subs aren't going to buy a BB knowing BB10 is just around the corner!

IMO, with all the news of subscribers going to other devices in emerging markets, it would be good if they stayed flat in total subs (>80mil). Cash flow is going to be a difficult one, they have been pushing BB10 alot with carriers, lots of travel, starting to advertise (certainly paying for at least some of the commercials to be made for next quarter) and ramping up production of devices (my estimation). I hope they dont eat too far into that $2.3B.

**TomJasper** · 12-20-2012, 12:41 PM

Come on Patriko, lets pop that $14.

**TomJasper** · 12-20-2012, 02:48 PM

Thanks Patriko $14.08 , close em high.

Come on!

**TomJasper** · 12-20-2012, 03:01 PM

$14.13 close!
$14.18 after hours high
$14.12 after hours low
You shorts are in for a boat load of hurt!

WOOT WOOT

**howarmat** · 12-20-2012, 03:21 PM

Originally Posted by Sith_Apprentice

IMO, with all the news of subscribers going to other devices in emerging markets, it would be good if they stayed flat in total subs (>80mil). Cash flow is going to be a difficult one, they have been pushing BB10 alot with carriers, lots of travel, starting to advertise (certainly paying for at least some of the commercials to be made for next quarter) and ramping up production of devices (my estimation). I hope they dont eat too far into that $2.3B.

lost subscribers but gained a good deal of cash so good and bad.

**Sith_Apprentice** · 12-21-2012, 06:43 AM

Originally Posted by howarmat

lost subscribers but gained a good deal of cash so good and bad.

I agree, however the big news of the night is the service revenue. I dont see this as a bad thing actually. To me it shows that RIM and the carriers are reaching agreements on hardware, where the hardware itself will be profitable enough to offset the service revenue cost. Assuming RIM sells devices above their cost, they only need to sell it ~$70-220 over to break even across a two/three year contract.

Let me explain:

Service revenue -
$3-6 / mo for 2 - 3 years (depending on country).
Total service revenue per user = $72-216

Hardware cost -
Assuming it costs roughly the same to make a BB10 device has it does an iPhone 5, RIM is looking at about $200 in hardware cost.
Add in other factors and lets make that an even $250.

IF RIM can sell the devices for the estimated cost of $400-450, they can break even on total revenue while still offsetting the service revenue decline. AND, if they are heavily loaded on the prosumer/consumer side of things, they will actually turn a hefty overall profit (consumer contracts on the low end of the $72-216 range, somewhere around $100-150 I would guess) per device/user. Much more so than they have with their current service revenue market.

Also keep in mind RIM will be expanding their MDM piece, and their technical support services to go along with it. CALs and TSupport are virtually 100% profit. With 200,000 BES installed worldwide, they hold a large group of customers that they could turn into BB10 or BES10 customers.

Service revenue estimates taken from Chris' article here: http://crackberry.com/research-motio...roller-coaster
ASP estimate taken from Chris' article here: http://crackberry.com/blackberry-10-hardware-back-black