[Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes]

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/investing/trading-desk/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/2012/10/16/heres-what-will-happen-if-bb10-is-actually-a-success

[Thunderbuck]

Um, you got it wrong. What Gus Papageorgiou said in his note was that THE STREET expects BB10 to be a disaster, and has priced RIM's shares accordingly.

If you read the note, he actually sounds cautiously optimistic about BB10's prospects.

[BarracudaBob]

That�s a massive upside scenario. And Mr. Papageorgiou notes it �doesn�t take much� for RIM to realize that scenario.

It seems to me he realizes that RIM stands a pretty good chance at a recovery with BB10.

[Blackberry_boffin]

I find the article not as comprehensive as it could have been. The table quoted to highlight the various levels of innovation do not cover all the areas we have all seen over the years up to today.
Apple and Google are not standing still in innovation, they are actually connsolidating their already formidable positions.
As for BB10, I really think everyone is welcome to speculate but I feel it is very hard to call.

[Michelle Haag]

John Shmuel, National Post
Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012

In the words of Scotiabank analyst Gus Papageorgiou, the Street is expecting Research In Motion�s BB10 to be a �disaster.�

The new operating system, now scheduled for release in 2013, has already seen a couple of delays, the most recent one seeing the OS pushed back from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013.

One analyst is even speculating that BB10 could be delayed once again.

But what if all those gloomy analysts are wrong � and BB10 turns out to be a success?

Mr. Papageorgiou of Scotiabank looked at the numbers to see what a successful BB10 launch would mean for RIM�s earnings. Now before we get into his findings, it should be noted that Mr. Papageorgiou, like many of his fellow analysts, is also forecasting a disappointing launch for RIM�s BB10.

He predicts weak BB10 sales will lead to RIM posting earnings of only 15� per share next year. The Street, meanwhile, is currently forecasting that RIM will lose 58 cents per share next year after the BB10 launch falls flat.

�We are essentially assuming the devices do not really sell and as a result have to be discounted,� Mr. Papageorgiou said in a note to clients.

Now for his findings on what will happen if the launch is semi-successful.

Mr. Papageorgiou says that even a mildly successful launch � nothing like the iPhone 5′s five million units in a single weekend � could spell huge upside for RIM.

In his �upside scenario�, RIM adds two million subscribers a quarter next year � similar to what it did in the most recent quarter (and much better than the current forecast by Mr. Papageorgiou of one million subs, most of which he expects will come from the developing world). The upside scenario also sees RIM stemming some of the bleeding in North America with the launch of BB10 (RIM is losing about 1.5-million subscribers per quarter in NA).

Of course, more subscribers and better sales of BB10 mean more earnings for RIM. Mr. Papageorgiou said that two million subs in a quarter will net RIM earnings per share of $4.39 in fiscal 2014, rather than the loss the Street is predicting.

That�s a massive upside scenario. And Mr. Papageorgiou notes it �doesn�t take much� for RIM to realize that scenario.

RIM also has something else going in its favour � innovation. While competitors Google and Apple have scaled back on innovation, opting for hardware and software improvements, Research In Motion has been hard at work on research and development. Check out Mr. Papageorgiou�s table below to see how RIM has taken the lead:

But, of course, this is all speculation. In reality, Mr. Papageorgiou is still pretty cautious on RIM � he rates the company as �sector perform� and gives it a 12-month price target of $11.20. But he does add that he thinks the company has �seen its lows� and that BB10 does present �considerable upside.�

[madman0141]

I have to be a little less than impressed when anyone from the banking industry predicts anything. I thought these were the people who got our economy in the situation it is.