Between Realities
|  Originally Posted by 1magine WOW. And you guys think the analysts are out of their minds?
First - as far as the long term health and well being of RIM. The analysts don't matter. RIM needs to win over the tech bloggers. If they think BB10 and the hardware are something special, it will generate interest among consumers. When consumer adoption increases, the analysts will come around.
That said, RIMM is at $12. And deservedly so. The stock is a reflection of RIM's current place in the market. The last devices RIM has put out are mostly EOL in North America. They did not generate excitement and enthusiasm. The low-end, developing markets are mostly inundated. These new devices are a minimum of 5 months out, and given RIM's history, likely six. That means no huge influx of sales and a further eroding of market share. On Tuesday, a developer's survey was released, showing that while 88% would like to develop for IOS, 82% for Android, only 16% at this point want to develop for BB. Among the other huge mountains RIM has to climb, that is a very tall order. However, most analysts are not taking into account the Android Player, which we hope will be available on BB10. And if RIM can truly deliver a 1 day port of any IOS or ANdroid application to BB10, then developer adoption will be a non-issue. Problem is RIGHT NOW, and only right now, RIM has nothing to really show, and a history of not delivering.
So, I'm not saying not to have hope. You should. I do. What I'm saying is don't blame or belittle those people whose job it is to look at the facts and draw unemotional financial conclusions. They did not create this mess, (No not even BGR!)
RIM created this mess. The announced almost 3 years ago that JAVA was poorly suited to modern smart phones and they would build on a new platform QNX. They did not build the Playbook on BB OS, it was built on QNX, but their most important asset, their handset business, they continued to use underpowered and second class materials and build on the JAVA OS.
BGR did not make that decision, analysts didn't tell them to do this, Apple lovers and Android fans did not decide these moves. People bought what they liked, and for the majority of consumers that has not been BB. And as consumers adopted IOS in larger and larger numbers, enterprise was under increasing pressure to meets its users needs, those on BES often kept their BBs until they died, and for the first time carried a second device (usually IOS); others pushed their IT until they adopted a MDM solution that allowed consumers to BYOD. This is what has brought RIMM to $12 today.
And I'll add one more person responsible. Every BB user that repeatedly shouted down other BB users who brought up reasonable issues and concerns, and never demanded more and accepted far less than they should from a company that was more than capable, if pushed, of delivering. From - "BBs are business devices they don't need a camera." Or "It doesn't need a media player. If you want to listen to music carry a walkman" "There is more than enough application memory, developers need to learn to code better." Etc., etc. on and on. You know who you are - so stop pointing fingers at others. You bear a boatload of responsibility, far more than Barrons or BGR. Completely sensible, but it as you and I know, it is much more fun to blame the boogeyman, who, in BB land, manifests himself in several different ways: - Analysts
- Wall Street
- BGR
- Engadget
- New York Times
- US government (seriously... someone said this).
- Verizon execs
- Shadowy coalition let by Apple and Google
- Paid posters
- Third world dictators scared of RIM's security
I know I am missing a vendor of hate or two, but yes, you need to understand that the whole world is against RIM, and is responsible for its woes. If you don't get this, or refuse to buy into the conspiracy, you might be added to the list.
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