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Is this a surprise?
RIMM Analyst Round-Up: BB10 Fails To Wow
By Teresa Rivas
Research In Motion�s (RIMM) BlackBerry World conference began today in Orlando, including the introduction of a prototype of the BlackBerry 10, widely expected later this year, and plenty of giveaways to developers in hopes that buzz and software will follow.
However, analysts remained skeptical of the stock�s prospects leading up to the conference, and today aren�t changing their tune much, although there were some saw glimmers of hope. Here are some summaries:
RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Sue reiterated his Market Perform rating, as he sees RIMM delivering results below the Street�s expectations in the near term.
Prototype BlackBerry 10 Device Unveiled. RIM unveiled its prototype BlackBerry 10 (BB10) device at its annual user conference in Orlando today. The prototype device (with 4.2″ 1280�768 touchscreen, no QWERTY keyboard) resembles a smaller version of the PlayBook and appears similar to many of the Android touchscreen slabs out there. CEO Thorsten Heins appeared confident that RIM is meeting milestones to launch the device in the 2H/CY12. We believe carriers may be targeting an October launch.
BB10 Targets Core Users. RIM received applause from the friendly audience for new BlackBerry 10 features that address its core productivity/message-centric customer base. The BlackBerry 10 UI (based on QNX cascades) appears similar to Microsoft Metro with quick to view notifications (which looked to us like Metro�s Live Tiles) and seamless multi-tasking (e.g. view a PDF attachment, email, and list of messages all at the same time). RIM�s new on-screen keyboard appears innovative offering predictive next word suggestions (as opposed to just word completion), and may offer the productivity that BlackBerry users are looking for in a touchscreen. RIM also appears that it will have BBM available for BB10 smartphones (addressing a prior concern).
Everyone Wants Apps. Several developers including Gameloft, Citrix, and others showed off some competitive apps on BB10. Many indicated BB10 is easy to develop for, a big improvement from legacy BlackBerry. While RIM is addressing prior shortcomings that limited developer momentum, it is still playing catch-up vs. Apple�s 600k apps and Android�s 400k. We believe beyond core BlackBerry fans, RIM�s smaller app/content ecosystem could constrain BlackBerry�s traction among the broader consumer market.
JMP analyst Alex Gauna reiterated a Market Underperform rating and $12 price target on the firm following the BB10�s debut.
There were no real surprises unveiled as what appears to be a reasonably well-attended 2012 Developer Conference got underway. The absence of new devices and only a beta version of its new tool kit for HTML 5 and native software development means earnings power should continue to deteriorate and leave any favorable sentiment hinging on takeout speculation until the new phone arrives in the fall. We are reducing our FY13 and FY14 estimates to reflect the recently reported Apple (MP) and Samsung smartphone upside that we assume is taking a heavy toll on RIM market share and reiterating our $12 price target based on an approximate 1x tangible book.
Pacific Crest Securities analyst James Faucette also saw the events at the first day of the conference as underwhelming.
Modest negative for RIMM. We view today�s sneak peek of BB10 as modestly disappointing, particularly as the company spent more than half of its time on the new BB10 OS featuring the new touchscreen keyboard, which to our view seemed like a Tuner version of every other touch-screen keyboard already on the market. The other features that were previewed of full multitasking and photo editing capabilities were somewhat interesting, but we have questions as to their real world feasibility given potential drain on battery life.
Renewed focus on enterprise evident. The company�s renewed focus on enterprise was evident, with most of the partners that were trotted up being companies talking about their existing use of BB in the enterprise combined with superficial comments on how their respective applications will support BB10.
Further behind than PALM was in 2009. Based on the little that RIMM showed during its keynote at BB World 2012, we believe that RIMM may be further behind iOS and Android in terms of product development to help catalyze ecosystem development than what Palm was when it launched webOS at CES 2009 (for which it won the Best of CES award). We all know the sad outcome of that journey (although we would admit that RIMM has substantially more resources at its disposal than Palm ever did�user base, cash, cash flow, etc).
Think Equity analyst Mark McKechnie raised his target price by $1 to $13, but reiterated his Hold rating has he sees RIMM with a �valley� to look through between the present and the release of the BB10, at which point it will still face fierce competition from Apple (AAPL). His price target reflect his belief that RIMM can �monetize its patents or save its services revenues.�
BlackBerry 10 (�BBX�) developer units handed out. At today�s keynote,RIMM focused the majority of its time on its upcoming BBX platform scheduledfor a �late CY12″ introduction but recent blogs have been speculating October.In conjunction, RIMM is handing out development platforms which to us looklike �shrunken down� PlayBooks � all touch � but running the new BBX software.
BBX looks a lot like a Windows Phone 7 to us. RIMM referred to itsnew �windowed� or �tiled� GUI as �cascades�, which look very similar to theWindows Phone 7 environment. Demos included low-latency performance,linked notifications, and easy navigation between multiple windows in an application.
Adding secure third-party support to its MDM offering. This was the bignews to us as it represents the first real strategic shift we�ve seen by RIMMsince the addition of new CEO Thorsten Hines. Simply put, RIMM plans to openup all the features of its BlackBerry Platform, including secure connections toe-mail and contacts, to its BlackBerry Fusion offering in the next 12 months. Weview this as a step in the right direction to hopefully offset continuing declinesin RIMM�s US subscriber base.
We do believe RIMM will face execution challenges as key employees JimBalsillie (former CEO) and David Jach (the original architect of RIMM�s BESserver/NOC) left the company earlier in the year. We also note RIMM facescompetition in the Mobile Device Management (�MDM�) space from numerousprivate companies as well as SAP/SY.05-01-12 02:20 PMLike 0 -
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This focus doesn't surprise me one bit.
Think for example if we were talking about a car manufacturer like Toyota. If they should off their new amazing engine and manufacturing process to car purchasers, we would say ok and thats it.
For engineers it would be impressive however and show that "WOW" factor.
I am an application developer and ... I was impressed!
Analysis are not the audience on this. But there doing what they do best, report on anything. I love it when the media work on news about a researcher working on a cure. Its news when it is "a cure" not while they are working on in imo.05-01-12 03:12 PMLike 5 -
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Man forget what they think...like many others, I was thoroughly impressed, and I haven't even finished watching all the videos. That camera ABSOLUTELY blew my mind. If that's not an example of innovation, then I want to see what is. People saying they weren't impressed, for example bgr, act like the whole d*** OS was shown off when its been known all along we were just going to get glimpses of it.
In all the 6 or 7 years I've been using BB's, my exciting for future RIM devices has never been this high.recompile likes this.05-01-12 03:43 PMLike 1 -
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I'm guessing the press will get very positive if they get their results back to where they were in 2009. As for today, from an analysts view, all we got is more promises by a company that recently has struggled to keep promises, and anything short of "this is BB10 and it's available today!" was bound to deliver this kind of response. Now, if RIM can simply deliver on its promises and give us a great platform, the coverage tone will change. But a "this is what we'll be shipping in 6 months" was not going to give the company a big boost among analysts.05-01-12 04:20 PMLike 0 -
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The camera gimmick is not new:
BlackBerry 10′s best feature is actually a third-party camera app, integrated? | 9to5Google | Beyond Good and Evil
Rewind - Scaladokennyliu likes this.05-01-12 04:34 PMLike 1 -
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What I find interesting is most reporting on the Phone and BB10 do not seem to read much...
RIM has made it very clear neither on the devlopment devce is anyting like the final product... Yet it is being reported the OS looks like MS Metro.....
People's ingnorance is astounding.....
The other half of the assumption here is that what was presented today is the present itteration of BB10 which will not be the case if they expect to launch even by October.... It is obviousley way further along if you follow the release of the DEV tools.....It would make sense not to give any of the final UI away as other OS's are not beneath "borrowing" ideas.....
They need to do what Apple does well... keep em guessing and leak lots of Rumors....
Is RIM dead... who knows but would it would be nice if people stopped actiong as if they do.....Last edited by dbmalloy; 05-01-12 at 04:39 PM.
05-01-12 04:37 PMLike 3 -
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This is exactly why I called it vaporware in another post. That may not be technically correct, but we don't know what the product, or OS will look like. Therefore, it is just as premature to love it as it is to hate it. It's hard to know what we've really seen.
What investors wanted to see was a Siri moment. They want to see something game changing, new, outside the slab thinking. All we saw was iterations on every Android, iOS, WP7 slab. There is no Siri style innovation to capture the imagination. That is why they are being punished in the media and in the stock market.CDM76 likes this.05-01-12 05:04 PMLike 1 -
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Exactly what i was thinking. If you go to the RIMM thread on hotstockmarket.com you will see hundreds of jackasses shorting the stock and rooting for it to fail.05-01-12 05:16 PMLike 0 -
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I found this passage to be the most amusing:
"Pacific Crest Securities analyst James Faucette also saw the events at the first day of the conference as underwhelming.
Modest negative for RIMM. We view today�s sneak peek of BB10 as modestly disappointing, particularly as the company spent more than half of its time on the new BB10 OS featuring the new touchscreen keyboard, which to our view seemed like a Tuner version of every other touch-screen keyboard already on the market. The other features that were previewed of full multitasking and photo editing capabilities were somewhat interesting, but we have questions as to their real world feasibility given potential drain on battery life."
So multitasking and getting developers on board to make apps is bad?
Why bring up battery issues?05-01-12 05:37 PMLike 0 -
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Here is why I don't pay attention to analysts. Take note of the date of the article.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aRelVKWbMAv0
Sent from my Magical BlackBerry Bold 9900xiaohuaxing likes this.05-01-12 05:45 PMLike 1 -
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a hahaha i just tried to email that guy and thank him for the laugh i got from the article, it appears he no longer works there. go figure.Here is why I don't pay attention to analysts. Take note of the date of the article.
Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move: Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg
Sent from my Magical BlackBerry Bold 990005-01-12 05:50 PMLike 0 -
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No, those are not bad things. They are just not interesting. Those are not the things a serious comeback is made of. As for battery life, that was the first thing I thought of when I heard the words, "everything running all the time".05-01-12 06:06 PMLike 0 -
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Well I was somewhat impressed with what I saw so far (which really isn't much admittedly).
However, I can see why most iPhone/Android/WP7 users wont be. Because there's nothing really new to make them want to jump ship (especially for iPhone/Android). I always said that if RIM wants to really compete, they have to blow us away with something we haven't seen. They haven't so far. This was pretty much intended to keep those who love the BB brand from going to the competition.
RIM seems to understand that they should concentrate on enterprise and professionals first, and then the typical BB user (major overlap of these two). Don't try to compete with Apple/Android, because it's a guaranteed loss... try and carve out a solid niche instead.
RIM will do no better than #3... and with the mobile market growing, that's enough to keep them alive - provided they follow through properly with BB10.
Overall, it's a positive step. There will certainly be a chunk of people who will finally bail on RIM as BB10 answered their question and they're not impressed enough. This is inevitable. Gotta shake the loose apples from the tree (pardon the pun).
RIM needs to take some of that BB7 advertising money and throw it further into BB10.
This has to be released on time, with enough quality apps covering all the major functions the competition has - and it has to run like a dream being as efficient as possible to provide a smooth experience while maintaining excellent battery life.05-01-12 06:19 PMLike 0 -
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obviously they want to short anything that looks good that can cause damage to Apple's smartphone share because they have invested too much into Apple stock and it is not like RIM's stock where they might loose few pennies on dollar but any potential drop in Apple stock could potentially bankrupt them and put them on roads.05-01-12 06:25 PMLike 0
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