My UK Carrier's Business Tele Sales Team
I had to call my carrier to discuss various billing issues, which took about 10 to 15 minutes.
So I asked him about how Z10 was going…. This was my first glimpse into business sales…. Hold onto your seats.
Some business sales guys sell 20 in one shot,
My 'gent' typically sold per week:
6 iPhones 5
15-16 Galaxy S3
Z10 is outselling the iPhone 5x 4 in the business environment, and also true as highlighted earlier, the Galaxy S3 is a bigger competitor.
More importantly he told me that they received XX,000 Z10s on Monday and XX,000 on Friday. I do not wish disclose this number so that you cannot work back to and figure out which carrier it was.
Suffice to say it was a very large number and if you back that number out to be 100% of UK Offline Business sales for the top 3 networks you end up with a current pace of 50K units per week for offline business sales ONLY.
To be clear, I am telling you that I believe that 50K units per week is a reasonable number for UK, Offline (ie call center driven / internal upgrades.) This excludes other business sales channels, store /web. It also excludes ALL consumer sales in the UK, it excludes all those retailers mentioned above.
This works out to a run rate of 200K units per month for business offline sales alone!
Analyst expectations on the short side of 300K units become, laughable? You understand why store managers had a belly full of laughs this weekend when I showed up. Even Jefferies, a bull on the stock, has a 500K target for February!
We know BlackBerry upped production significantly. In the German interview, Heins mentioned that the company may have had to up this again. It is therefore fair to expect numbers for February to fork between the 750k low end and the 1M+ range. Again, and I cannot say this enough, a unit shipped is a unit sold and BlackBerry is adding territories everyday.
Enough said, if your short position is advised by some of the analysts that downgraded last week based on that preposterous figure, good luck, I hope you can digest my little, tiny, tidbit wafer of information…
Mystery Surrounding BlackBerry's Delayed US Launch Strategy:
BlackBerry knew they would face incredible amount of negativity in the US. The visit to Carrier Operated Store Visit 4 confirms this. The US is the most advanced Smart Phone market and the one were BlackBerry may have the most negative image of a company going bust, and Americans hate losers.
Blackberry was initially due to launch in the UK, UAE and Canada, its strongest markets. (I believe most analyst forecasts are based on this geographic introduction still today) It snuck in: France, Germany, Italy, Saudi, Lebanon, South Africa, Malaysia, and Singapore. Remember: units shipped are units sold. This has all been one great ploy to sandbag expectations and deliver a massive upside surprise with the full intention of changing the negative discourse in the media. Shed the 'loser' brand image and welcome the "Comeback Story." This is where it gets really fun.
Beware of the Ides Of March
To achieve the above strategy, BlackBerry needs to pre-announce February sales BEFORE the US launches in mid-March. That means if you have short sold this stock, there is a high likelihood that a pre-announcement could come any day between the end of February and ….the ides of March! Oh no! If you doubt me, read Heins's comments yesterday regarding production capacity increases and possible early figure announcements.
Well shorties you can decide who gets to be Caesar and who gets to be Brutus between you; I don't care because you just walked into a blood bath - Caligula style.
"quod erat demonstrandum"