[theRock1975]

BlackBerry has been hoarding cash for the last few years and the market cap is still a joke. $3B in cash with a $7B market cap? The company's assets are worth a fortune and bb10 has been a huge success in so many countries. There is no reason for the stock price to be below book value.

People are angry that the company is doing nothing about the negative press on financial sites but perhaps this is what they want! My bet is that BlackBerry cash reserves will hit $5B in Q1 and they will use $1B to buy back shares. They can release the shares back to the market @ $50/share after the company posts positive eps and all the shorts have covered.

Posted via CB10

[anon(2757538)]

How do you think BlackBerry will generate over $2 billion in cash over 1 quarter in which they globally launched a brand new product?

Expect their cash balance to slightly dip on March 28th. It is way too early to see any significant results from BlackBerry 10.

[Shanerredflag]

I like the 50 dollar figure though.

[nquyen]

BlackBerry has been hoarding cash for the last few years and the market cap is still a joke. $3B in cash with a $7B market cap? The company's assets are worth a fortune and bb10 has been a huge success in so many countries. There is no reason for the stock price to be below book value.

People are angry that the company is doing nothing about the negative press on financial sites but perhaps this is what they want! My bet is that BlackBerry cash reserves will hit $5B in Q1 and they will use $1B to buy back shares. They can release the shares back to the market @ $50/share after the company posts positive eps and all the shorts have covered.

Posted via CB10

Holy moly, 2 bil in revenue in one quarter? Quite the comeback if it were possible LOL

[Kid Vibe]

OP puts the Crack, in crackberry.

[anon(2757538)]

Holy moly, 2 bil in revenue in one quarter? Quite the comeback if it were possible LOL

BlackBerry reeled in $2.7 in revenue during Q3 2012....soooo ya.

Revenue and profit don't really affect cash flow.

[Dapper37]

If and when the turn around has been assured, there is a place for share buy backs. It would be fantastic to take advantage of the current price aswell. Currently the cash is better on the books. IMO. Although if they know something we don't and already have the rights to a previously anounced buyback, i'm not against it! That would be the quickest way to shake the shorts, make it so they think twice next time.I just don't see it lining up that way!
OP your lost thinking 5 billion! Sorry.

[theRock1975]

How do you think BlackBerry will generate over $2 billion in cash over 1 quarter in which they globally launched a brand new product?

Expect their cash balance to slightly dip on March 28th. It is way too early to see any significant results from BlackBerry 10.

$5B in Q1!! This is after US launch, Q10 launch all over the world, high margins and crazy high sell through!.

Don't forget bes 10 licensing and recurring revenue from 70+ millions bb6/7 users.

The Q1 quarter earnings will be announced late June.

[theRock1975]

If and when the turn around has been assured, there is a place for share buy backs. It would be fantastic to take advantage of the current price aswell. Currently the cash is better on the books. IMO. Although if they know something we don't and already have the rights to a previously anounced buyback, i'm not against it! That would be the quickest way to shake the shorts, make it so they think twice next time.I just don't see it lining up that way!
OP your lost thinking 5 billion! Sorry.

Rim generated $6/shr EPS just a few years ago... The smartphone market was a lot smaller and right now z10 is the hottest phone. $2Billion in cash is $1 / shr. Not unrealistic at all considering the quick sell through. Inventories will remain low after Q1..

[Sith_Apprentice]

Rim generated $6/shr EPS just a few years ago... The smartphone market was a lot smaller and right now z10 is the hottest phone. $2Billion in cash is $1 / shr. Not unrealistic at all considering the quick sell through. Inventories will remain low after Q1..

horribly unrealistic given the US has not launched and other major markets are launching just before or just after the close of the quarter. RIM/BB is in a vastly different position than a few years ago when it generated that EPS. They have a HUGE hill to climb to get back.

[theRock1975]

horribly unrealistic given the US has not launched and other major markets are launching just before or just after the close of the quarter. RIM/BB is in a vastly different position than a few years ago when it generated that EPS. They have a HUGE hill to climb to get back.

Do you know that after RIM purchased a large chunk of the Nortel LTE/security patents their cash was down to 700 Million. After that purchase they swallowed another 6 companies including TAT a QNX. They spent a ton of money on R&D (largest in Canada).

They spent millions attracting developers, millions writing down inventory and still managed to push cash reserves from 700 million to 3 billion. Make no mistake about RIM's ability to raise cash. The service revenue is highly profitable and allowed RIM the extra time to perfect BB10.

So the platform is complete, tens of thousands of developers are on board, the new phones are selling out pretty much everywhere. In Q1 quarter which ends May, the Q10 would have launched, the US alone will devour a few million units and service revenue from bes, mobile fusion, app store and all the remaining bis customers will be at its highest ever. Imo, they have already climbed the hill and they'll be reaping the rewards for a long time.

My point is that the buyback should happen soon not later when the stock is above book value. They'll be buying themselves for cheaper than they're worth.

[Sith_Apprentice]

Do you know that after RIM purchased a large chunk of the Nortel LTE/security patents their cash was down to 700 Million. After that purchase they swallowed another 6 companies including TAT a QNX. They spent a ton of money on R&D (largest in Canada).

They spent millions attracting developers, millions writing down inventory and still managed to push cash reserves from 700 million to 3 billion. Make no mistake about RIM's ability to raise cash. The service revenue is highly profitable and allowed RIM the extra time to perfect BB10.

So the platform is complete, tens of thousands of developers are on board, the new phones are selling out pretty much everywhere. In Q1 quarter which ends May, the Q10 would have launched, the US alone will devour a few million units and service revenue from bes, mobile fusion, app store and all the remaining bis customers will be at its highest ever. Imo, they have already climbed the hill and they'll be reaping the rewards for a long time.

My point is that the buyback should happen soon not later when the stock is above book value. They'll be buying themselves for cheaper than they're worth.

All of those events happened while RIM/BB were still making money (yes I know not directly related to cash on hand, but still). RIM/BB has increased their cash almost solely on their cost cutting measures. At this point, they will be close to done with that (after all they should be near the end of their cuts so it should be running much leaner now), and their service revenue should take a massive hit this quarter, and an even bigger one in Q1. Keep in mind BB10 devices do not require a special data plan, and RIM/BB if they are only making money off of handset sales, and not the recurring monthly revenue, that could very well hit them hard. App sales should be up, absolutely, but they will need that, among other things, to offset their shrinking recurring revenue stream. They got between $3-$8 per user, per month from BIS/BES. BES still remains to be seen (no special plan appears to be needed).

While I do hope you are correct, and they can raise that money, I think they would fall much closer to that $1B mark, not 2.

[Marc_Paradise]

Two things say this is unlikely (cash increase):

- Heins said they expected to dip in available cash - but not below $2bn. If he reports an increase in cash position now, stock price will climb - making a buyback more expensive.
- Deliberately deceiving investors to keep the price lower for a buyback seems like it'd qualify as illegal insider trading...

[greggebhardt]

BlackBerry has been hoarding cash for the last few years and the market cap is still a joke. $3B in cash with a $7B market cap? The company's assets are worth a fortune and bb10 has been a huge success in so many countries. There is no reason for the stock price to be below book value.

People are angry that the company is doing nothing about the negative press on financial sites but perhaps this is what they want! My bet is that BlackBerry cash reserves will hit $5B in Q1 and they will use $1B to buy back shares. They can release the shares back to the market @ $50/share after the company posts positive eps and all the shorts have covered.

Posted via CB10

I think you fail to understand how it really works. When you are producing new products and trying to get them distributed, you are NOT making money. 2 billion dollars does not come with ease and it will be a long time till BBRY sees it.

[RubberChicken76]

I'd rather they spend it on marketing, manufacturing, R&D and operational efficiencies. When the cash balance gets above $5 or $6 billion, fine.

[Dapper37]

All of those events happened while RIM/BB were still making money (yes I know not directly related to cash on hand, but still). RIM/BB has increased their cash almost solely on their cost cutting measures. At this point, they will be close to done with that (after all they should be near the end of their cuts so it should be running much leaner now), and their service revenue should take a massive hit this quarter, and an even bigger one in Q1. Keep in mind BB10 devices do not require a special data plan, and RIM/BB if they are only making money off of handset sales, and not the recurring monthly revenue, that could very well hit them hard. App sales should be up, absolutely, but they will need that, among other things, to offset their shrinking recurring revenue stream. They got between $3-$8 per user, per month from BIS/BES. BES still remains to be seen (no special plan appears to be needed).

While I do hope you are correct, and they can raise that money, I think they would fall much closer to that $1B mark, not 2.

Something not well understood but has been made clear to me is that the carriers are still paying BlackBerry a sub fee for all units. A highly reduced fee albeit, not worth an added plan. The carriers are charging and returning some amount of a fee to BlackBerry!

[meltbox360]

They could make a lot buying back even a few million and selling them back in two years or so. Wish I had a million to put in :/

[theRock1975]

Something not well understood but has been made clear to me is that the carriers are still paying BlackBerry a sub fee for all units. A highly reduced fee albeit, not worth an added plan. The carriers are charging and returning some amount of a fee to BlackBerry!

I gathered the opposite. The carriers want incentive themselves. Rim started the revenue sharing idea with carriers a long time ago. The carriers connected the NOC while RIM managed the NOC, and they split BIS/BES revenue. Apple kind of destroyed that setup with big fat data plans that everybody decided they would rather. So Google offered search revenue to the carriers.. ie sell more Android phones and we'll give you a larger cut of search that is happening on your network. BB10 has something new! Carrier billing for Apps. Buy an app and charge the carrier(customer bill), the carrier will get a cut. In my opinion, this is better than the $2/month the carrier receives every month from BIS, or the pennies they receive from Google for the 6 searches someone might do in a month on a smartphone. Rim is also pushing payments through NFC. The carriers get a cut as well.

Good thing RIM (BB) is helping carriers make more money. Consequently, carries have good reason to promote BB10 over everything else. Watch the US advertising from carriers...it's coming and it'll be huge!

[Thunderbuck]

I don't think it's unreasonable to discuss this at all. Yes, I like the idea of the company buying back stock, but I also get that they may need all the cash they can hold on to while they get the BB10 platform launched.

[theRock1975]

I don't think it's unreasonable to discuss this at all. Yes, I like the idea of the company buying back stock, but I also get that they may need all the cash they can hold on to while they get the BB10 platform launched.

True, but they can always release the shares back in the market if cash is running low.

[Thunderbuck]

They can't just buy and sell the way an individual investor can. It would actually constitute a new share issue and the paperwork for that is kind of a nightmare.

Ideally, they might look at it once they've reestablished themselves in the market but not now.

Posted via CB10

[silversun10]

True, but they can always release the shares back in the market if cash is running low.

better to make sure this does not happen, because the penalty will be severe, how hard could it be to wait till the Q results come in,
no need to gamble on this