[EchoTango]

I'm expecting a largely "push" this quarter with the numbers staying roughly on par with Q3 but will be reported as another year-over-year decline. Key metric will be the BES12 free trial conversions to revenue generating clients. Further, Morgan Stanley thinks device sales are in the toilet.

Any other thoughts and opinions ? Does anyone think Chen is playing his cards close to his chest and will surprise us all ?

Any thoughts are good ones.........as long as they agree with mine.

[theRock1975]

I'm backing up the truck and loading up this week. Thanks to Goldman and Morgan Stanley, bad results are already priced in and I don't even think they'll be bad.


Posted via CB10

[BB10Funding]

I would like the regulators to take a very close look at some of these analysts remarks.
I am certain Blackberry is very aware of this circus.
Sure I can handle bearish reviews but the latest criminal action shows something is brewing.

If Chen surprises and this company gets support LOOKOUT!!!


I also took time to try BBMs biggest competitor WHatsapp....give me a break ...it doesn't hold a candle to BBM

[just_say_no_to_crack]

I pray daily for some good signs from BBRY. I think that:
1. When continuously asked, Chen's response has been along the lines of "We're on target or slightly ahead of our plans". Same message has been given as recently as MWC in Barcelona.
2. If there was blood in the waters (like the analysts like to point out), they'd pre-announce this week.
3. If BBRY planned for 8k units sold in US and built 8k units and sold 8k units then, last week's story is a push. Just because they had additional models and one new carrier in the US doesn't mean that they were so foolish as to forecast 1M units sales. I think BBRY knows exactly where they stand within the US market. So they view it as just one more Country open for business.

So I'd like to see:
1. More details on that latest "slider" phone on their call.
2. Talk about more "partnerships" or results from current partnerships.
3. Insight into QNX. When is this thing going to generate some true revenue.
4. Some kind of respect from analysts.
5. A buy out offer or, significant investment from Samsung.
6. A YE2016 stock price of $18 (It can happen)

[BACK-2-BLACK]

I pray daily for some good signs from BBRY. I think that:
1. When continuously asked, Chen's response has been along the lines of "We're on target or slightly ahead of our plans". Same message has been given as recently as MWC in Barcelona.
2. If there was blood in the waters (like the analysts like to point out), they'd pre-announce this week.
3. If BBRY planned for 8k units sold in US and built 8k units and sold 8k units then, last week's story is a push. Just because they had additional models and one new carrier in the US doesn't mean that they were so foolish as to forecast 1M units sales. I think BBRY knows exactly where they stand within the US market. So they view it as just one more Country open for business.

So I'd like to see:
1. More details on that latest "slider" phone on their call.
2. Talk about more "partnerships" or results from current partnerships.
3. Insight into QNX. When is this thing going to generate some true revenue.
4. Some kind of respect from analysts.
5. A buy out offer or, significant investment from Samsung.
6. A YE2016 stock price of $18 (It can happen)

like you suggested, respect from analysts

There have been amazingly good signs this past year actually, MWC and the major announcements from CES to name a few.

buyout? hope not, way too many good things in the BB pipeline that will bear fruit.... (no pun intended!)

[EchoTango]

I to have been recently optimistic regarding Blackberry's resurgence, but all the planning, partnerships and expense cutting just has to bear fruit at some point. I'm expecting to see some hugely optimistic predictions for 2016 based on current indications. The only issue is, Blackberry currently has zero credibility with the analyst community and really needs to produce actual results for them to react positively.

I just don't think the market is really aware of the new products and offerings to have Blackberry considered as a viable current or future provider. Let's hope they can fix that, but with their dismal track record at marketing, it would be a clear departure from the norm.

[birdman_38]

So many threads on this topic. Haven't seen this much anticipation for a quarterly report in a while.

Revenues have to increase, plain and simple. Hopefully their new partnerships will bear fruit.

[Thunderbuck]

All of these calls are significant, but this one is particularly noteworthy. We should get some indication of how the BES12 subscriptions are selling, for instance.

Hardware sales numbers are crucial.

Posted from CB10 on my classy Passport--TBUCK64

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

All of these calls are significant, but this one is particularly noteworthy. We should get some indication of how the BES12 subscriptions are selling, for instance.

Hardware sales numbers are crucial.

Posted from CB10 on my classy Passport--TBUCK64

I'm not sure BES12 subscriptions are in a position to overcome the fading of BIS.... so I doubt we'll see any change in Services. And too be honest, I think the US market IS very important to BlackBerry's enterprise plans, so with the Classic and Passport not really having a chance to be "counted" there..... really not sure this will be the "noteworthy" quarter.

I think IF they can hold their own in this quarter, they'll have done something.

[sentimentGX4]

I predict the upcoming ER will be another boring, "transitional" one. Stock market price will not be impacted significantly and BBRY will not break out of its trading range for long. More patience and more waiting before the stock price actually goes somewhere...

[BergerKing]

Let's keep the thread on track and keep the political/nationality bashing off of CrackBerry. Thanks.

[EchoTango]

Not looking good......

Comments from Brian Blatt - Rosenblatt Securities

"We have seen this movie before. Last time we saw it, it was called the Z10 (launched in early 2013) and it didn’t sell many units or prop up BlackBerry fundamentals. We see the Leap as having the same problem: it is elegant hardware and has specs that are generally competitive in the smartphone sector, however its fatal flaw is that it runs BlackBerry software which consumers and enterprise customers have moved on from. It also lacks one critical component – apps. With no meaningful BlackBerry unit volumes in the market and no standardization of a single screen size across its device of- ferings, developers have no incentive to create applications for the platform. With no apps, there will be tepid consumer interest and no ecosystem can evolve. These same principles are as clear now as they were 3-4 years ago. Microsoft (MSFT: NR) has at least offered cash incentives for developers to create applications for the Windows Phone, but even that is a challenge. Developers generally start with iPhone, then Android and they stop there. The Leap won’t change this.

Following the Z3’s failed efforts, BlackBerry has taken to experimenting with device shapes and sizes. The Passport is the best example of this, with its large square touch screen and oddly wide keyboard. The device may have represented an original idea, but it further alienated potential developers in our view and hasn’t moved quarterly units up- ward. More recently, the company introduced a nod to legacy BlackBerry success with the Classic model. We expect it to find some vintage-loving fans, but global volumes will most assuredly remain low. One of the expected company efforts later this year is expected to marry the keyboard to the Leap – yes, a keyboard slider. Again, we don’t expect the device to sell many units. While we have applauded the attempt to find a place for BlackBerry hardware in the market, we believe it’s time to move on."

I might point out that they all seem to comment on Blackberry's potential in the consumer market as they can't seem to get that Leap and Classis are intended as corporate fleet devices.

Friday will hopefully clarify this direction with some positive indications.

[anon(2313227)]

It's going to be bad.... it is the end of BB....

Every time, I am hopeful it doesn't turn out good. Maybe if I think it is a lot worse then it is it will be better.

[birdman_38]

Comments from Brian Blatt - Rosenblatt Securities

"We have seen this movie before. Last time we saw it, it was called the Z10 (launched in early 2013) and it didn�t sell many units or prop up BlackBerry fundamentals. We see the Leap as having the same problem: it is elegant hardware and has specs that are generally competitive in the smartphone sector, however its fatal flaw is that it runs BlackBerry software which consumers and enterprise customers have moved on from. It also lacks one critical component � apps. With no meaningful BlackBerry unit volumes in the market and no standardization of a single screen size across its device of- ferings, developers have no incentive to create applications for the platform. With no apps, there will be tepid consumer interest and no ecosystem can evolve.

Tough talk. But very true.

[ccbs]

Not looking good......

Comments from Brian Blatt - Rosenblatt Securities

"We have seen this movie before. Last time we saw it, it was called the Z10 (launched in early 2013) and it didn’t sell many units or prop up BlackBerry fundamentals. We see the Leap as having the same problem: it is elegant hardware and has specs that are generally competitive in the smartphone sector, however its fatal flaw is that it runs BlackBerry software which consumers and enterprise customers have moved on from. It also lacks one critical component – apps. With no meaningful BlackBerry unit volumes in the market and no standardization of a single screen size across its device of- ferings, developers have no incentive to create applications for the platform. With no apps, there will be tepid consumer interest and no ecosystem can evolve. These same principles are as clear now as they were 3-4 years ago. Microsoft (MSFT: NR) has at least offered cash incentives for developers to create applications for the Windows Phone, but even that is a challenge. Developers generally start with iPhone, then Android and they stop there. The Leap won’t change this.

Following the Z3’s failed efforts, BlackBerry has taken to experimenting with device shapes and sizes. The Passport is the best example of this, with its large square touch screen and oddly wide keyboard. The device may have represented an original idea, but it further alienated potential developers in our view and hasn’t moved quarterly units up- ward. More recently, the company introduced a nod to legacy BlackBerry success with the Classic model. We expect it to find some vintage-loving fans, but global volumes will most assuredly remain low. One of the expected company efforts later this year is expected to marry the keyboard to the Leap – yes, a keyboard slider. Again, we don’t expect the device to sell many units. While we have applauded the attempt to find a place for BlackBerry hardware in the market, we believe it’s time to move on."

I might point out that they all seem to comment on Blackberry's potential in the consumer market as they can't seem to get that Leap and Classis are intended as corporate fleet devices.

Friday will hopefully clarify this direction with some positive indications.

Chen needs to be more blunt with the media and the analyst that BBRY is now an EMM company that also sells enterprise targeted devices, instead of the old BBRY, a mainly hardware mobile device company that does MDM on the side.

[EchoTango]

Well the results are in........

Good news
Profit, always a good thing, but only $28 million.
Device sales of 1.3 million - Good when you consider all the 8k numbers floating around, clearly this was a bald face lie by MS and the rest.
Software revenues up 20%
Bad news
Revenues down from last quarter and year over year. Expected but still sad.
Software revenues $47 Million, a paltry sum if this is their new direction. Where's the EZ pass conversion bump ?
Device sales seem to have plateaued, but when are we going to see higher take up rates ? Where's the distribution channel focus ?

All in all, I think it was another push "quarter" with the company continuing to bounce along the bottom. The plans are set in place and now they need to execute without delay. It's unfortunate we didn't see any breakouts from the "special projects" Blackberry is working on and announced with great fanfare.

It goes on.....

[RubberChicken76]

It's going to be bumpy for a while. They had a few other positives you missed.
- Positive cash flow of $76 million
- Cash increase of $608 million and high balance in company history matched
- No inventory of legacy devices (from earnings call)
- Hardware margins up (a little)

The market seems to be kinda unsure. The stock rose at first, but seems to be settled in around where it was as I right this.

A few things for me from the earnings call. It's more and more clear that hardware is intended to play less of a role moving forward. They talked about it *just enough* to imply we'll continue to make it as we can get it consistently profitable. But most things they talked about were on other business units, really emphasizing the diversification they're going for.

Whether they can or not remains to be seen. It seems like the bulls and bears continue to respect Chen as a leader, but divide on whether he's been given an impossible mission or not.

I have no idea how BlackBerry is going to play out. They obviously aren't anywhere close to being in danger of folding anytime soon (which is to Chen's credit; and a little to Thorsten as well), but they do need to show they can navigate still choppy waters.

And as hard as it is to swallow for BlackBerry hardware fans, Chen's first duty is to the shareholders by keeping the company alive. They may mean fewer devices or eventually no devices.

[RubberChicken76]

It's going to be bad.... it is the end of BB....

Every time, I am hopeful it doesn't turn out good. Maybe if I think it is a lot worse then it is it will be better.

Haha! This gets my vote for post of the week. I wonder if that's why some of the more melodramatic posters here do it ... to somehow get to a place of positivity.

[birdman_38]

They had a few other positives you missed.
- Positive cash flow of $76 million
- Cash increase of $608 million and high balance in company history matched

Isn't that record cash on hand in large part from a loan they got when Watsa took over?

[RubberChicken76]

Isn't that record cash on hand in large part from a loan they got when Watsa took over?

Ya - partly. But that was recorded several quarters ago. Chen keeps growing the cash hoard, to give him credit.

[bigbadben10]

The same band of individuals come in and take a dump in a thread just to cause trouble. This is their motto in life. We know who they are, we smell them way before they arrive.

I am very happy that John Chen is guiding BlackBerry through these very difficult times. What he as accomplished under such conditions in such a short time amazes me. Keep up the great work. We will all be rewarded with the fruits of his labour!

Cheers and have a fantastic Friday all.

[Andrew4life]

Isn't that record cash on hand in large part from a loan they got when Watsa took over?

Only about 1B of that was loan. The other 2-3B is real cash

Posted via CB10

[early2bed]

Analysts were largely correct. Revenue wasn't even close. Hardware sales lower than expected.

[anon(2313227)]

Looks like it is working.

I going to say Next Quarter is going to be REALLY REALLY BAD. BB is DEAD!.

Haha! This gets my vote for post of the week. I wonder if that's why some of the more melodramatic posters here do it ... to somehow get to a place of positivity.

[JeepBB]

It's going to be bumpy for a while. They had a few other positives you missed.
- Positive cash flow of $76 million
- Cash increase of $608 million and high balance in company history matched
- No inventory of legacy devices (from earnings call)
- Hardware margins up (a little)

The market seems to be kinda unsure. The stock rose at first, but seems to be settled in around where it was as I right this.

A few things for me from the earnings call. It's more and more clear that hardware is intended to play less of a role moving forward. They talked about it *just enough* to imply we'll continue to make it as we can get it consistently profitable. But most things they talked about were on other business units, really emphasizing the diversification they're going for.

Whether they can or not remains to be seen. It seems like the bulls and bears continue to respect Chen as a leader, but divide on whether he's been given an impossible mission or not.

I have no idea how BlackBerry is going to play out. They obviously aren't anywhere close to being in danger of folding anytime soon (which is to Chen's credit; and a little to Thorsten as well), but they do need to show they can navigate still choppy waters.

And as hard as it is to swallow for BlackBerry hardware fans, Chen's first duty is to the shareholders by keeping the company alive. They may mean fewer devices or eventually no devices.

Day'm RC, you're starting to sing from our hymn sheet.

I don't disagree with anything you've written here.

You may get that badge after all !

P.S. If I read the financials right, HW is still 42% of the revenue. So, much as we both seem to think Chen would love to reduce/stop HW, he hasn't got anything else to plug the financial hole that would leave at the moment.