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  1. Thunderbuck's Avatar

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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #1  

    Default Seeking Alpha: "BlackBerry Back In The Black"

    Conclusion

    BlackBerry is trading at a historically low price to earnings ratio, hovering at roughly 4.6. The company has found itself at an inflection point, one that will determine its fate. BlackBerry pulled itself out of severely negative profitability, picked up a new CEO, and found itself a new direction. It seems like a lot is hinged on John Chen, who seems competent and confident in his company's product line. I don't want to say BlackBerry is a buy, but if you believe in John Chen and his idea for BlackBerry inhabiting a security niche, then I would say that it's a good time to enter the stock.
    BlackBerry Back In The Black - BlackBerry Ltd. (NASDAQ:BBRY) | Seeking Alpha

    I don't normally pay a ton of attention to Seeking Alpha items; SA is really just a forum where individual writers post their opinions and some are well-researched, some... not so much.

    I thought this one was fairly interesting, though, since the author is Vlad Deshkovich. IIRC, he has been EXTREMELY critical of BlackBerry in the past few years in comments on SA, so this seems to represent an interesting change of heart.
    Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.

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    Not a bad read. Its nice to see some peoples opinion changing a little!
    ~Matt
    Nexus 5, Z10 LE, White Lumia 521, 32GB Nook HD+ & 16GB PB, 32 GB Dell Venue 8 Pro
    @howarmat
  3. m1kr0's Avatar
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    Normally not my cup of tea but I must admit SA did put together quite a decent and objective write-up.

    Z10 STL100-1, OS 10.2.1.3247
    The most underrated phone in the universe.
  4. theRock1975's Avatar
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    I don't think the P/E ratio is 4.6

    Earnings would have to be $2.40/shr to get that multiple.



    Posted via CB10
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  5. mtthwmtthw's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by theRock1975 View Post
    I don't think the P/E ratio is 4.6

    Earnings would have to be $2.40/shr to get that multiple.



    Posted via CB10
    From what I remember, you can't even have a pe ratio when you're losing money. Considering there has only been one quarter of profitability in the past year. I'll hold off on calculating pe until the end of 2015. I'd love to see continued growth in revenue, and I think if they achieve this, you will see a lot of positive articles like this in the future.
  6. THBW's Avatar
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    Certainly, Chen has had a positive influence on the company. As pointed out on another business website, BlackBerry is now, from an analyst's, the most followed Canadian company. More than our big banks or resource companies like Barrick.

    The short-to-medium term focus on enterprise is tactical. It is naive to think that BlackBerry has given up on the consumer market, or at least a segment of it (hello prosumer). BlackBerry, however, needs to think carefully about how to rebuild this side of the business. The niche argument currently used by Chen keeps the analysts happy and the buzzards from circling. I'm pretty sure he has bigger plans but like any good CEO, he keeps his mouth shut. As they say in the Navy, loose lips sink ships.

    Posted via CB10
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  7. STV0726's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by THBW View Post
    Certainly, Chen has had a positive influence on the company. As pointed out on another business website, BlackBerry is now, from an analyst's, the most followed Canadian company. More than our big banks or resource companies like Barrick.

    The short-to-medium term focus on enterprise is tactical. It is naive to think that BlackBerry has given up on the consumer market, or at least a segment of it (hello prosumer). BlackBerry, however, needs to think carefully about how to rebuild this side of the business. The niche argument currently used by Chen keeps the analysts happy and the buzzards from circling. I'm pretty sure he has bigger plans but like any good CEO, he keeps his mouth shut. As they say in the Navy, loose lips sink ships.

    Posted via CB10
    Hope you are right. I like your outcome predictions.

    -STV on Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.3247 TMO US
  8. scalemaster34's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by THBW View Post
    Certainly, Chen has had a positive influence on the company. As pointed out on another business website, BlackBerry is now, from an analyst's, the most followed Canadian company. More than our big banks or resource companies like Barrick.

    The short-to-medium term focus on enterprise is tactical. It is naive to think that BlackBerry has given up on the consumer market, or at least a segment of it (hello prosumer). BlackBerry, however, needs to think carefully about how to rebuild this side of the business. The niche argument currently used by Chen keeps the analysts happy and the buzzards from circling. I'm pretty sure he has bigger plans but like any good CEO, he keeps his mouth shut. As they say in the Navy, loose lips sink ships.

    Posted via CB10
    BlackBerry hasn't given up on any customers... they'll sell to anyone. But with the Z3 not making much headway and the only two official devices in the current line up being designed more for the enterprise market.... along with the fact that they have given up on a ecosystem of their own. It's apparent the consumer market has given up on BlackBerry...

    And sorry but Chen isn't keeping his mouth shut.... he has talked about EVERYTHING he could to boost BlackBerry image. More than any one product, they need to be seen as a stable company with a future if they want enterprise to "buy in". The Ship is already sinking, it doesn't do any good to be quite about some secret project. Most of the stuff he has talked about has been stuff still on the drawing boards.....
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  9. STV0726's Avatar
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    I always see stuff about Z3 selling well in emerging markets...and you keep saying that they gave up on their own ecosystem which plain and simple is only one way to interpret the Amazon Appstore move. The most negative way, that is.

    -STV on Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.3247 TMO US
  10. scalemaster34's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by STV0726 View Post
    I always see stuff about Z3 selling well in emerging markets...and you keep saying that they gave up on their own ecosystem which plain and simple is only one way to interpret the Amazon Appstore move. The most negative way, that is.

    -STV on Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.3247 TMO US
    We have only been given two reports that had numbers, both were pretty low for a couple of weeks during both LAUNCHES. Other than that it's been "it's doing well" - which doesn't cut it coming from BlackBerry. I basing my view more on what people in those areas are saying here in the forums. And there was a site that listed imports into India,https://www.zauba.com/import-blackbe...a-hs-code.html they were close to around 23K units back when CrackBerry reported the 25K - 30K number. As you can see, there haven't been very many additional units brought in the rest of July and August. This isn't official in any way... but to be so close at one point and now to show very little activity along with what is going on in the Z3 forums (nothing).

    Surrendered - Gave up... what's the nice way to describe it?. Developers were not coming to the BB10 Platform, and in fact they were starting to leaving. Even now some of the major (none BlackBerry only) apps are months old and are lagging in featues. And now even BlackBerry is telling developers of HTML5 apps to port their apps to the Amazon App store (why not encourage them to also port them to BlackBerry World). Which as far as we know, gets BlackBerry nothing in the way of revenues. The fact they traded one dying ecosystem for another, is not very encouraging.

    I'll admit I'm negative on BlackBerry... but I see them doing the same things over and over. And while Chen is new, the plans for the Classic and Manitoba are in fact classic BlackBerry. Old hardware, that is just good enough to run what is needed today - usually at a higher margin than the competitions low end devices. We'll have to see where the pricing is on these device.. if it's $199 - $250 then I stand corrected, if it's $499 a device then it's BlackBerry of old.
  11. STV0726's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalemaster34 View Post
    We have only been given two reports that had numbers, both were pretty low for a couple of weeks during both LAUNCHES. Other than that it's been "it's doing well" - which doesn't cut it coming from BlackBerry. I basing my view more on what people in those areas are saying here in the forums. And there was a site that listed imports into India,https://www.zauba.com/import-blackbe...a-hs-code.html they were close to around 23K units back when CrackBerry reported the 25K - 30K number. As you can see, there haven't been very many additional units brought in the rest of July and August. This isn't official in any way... but to be so close at one point and now to show very little activity along with what is going on in the Z3 forums (nothing).

    Surrendered - Gave up... what's the nice way to describe it?. Developers were not coming to the BB10 Platform, and in fact they were starting to leaving. Even now some of the major (none BlackBerry only) apps are months old and are lagging in featues. And now even BlackBerry is telling developers of HTML5 apps to port their apps to the Amazon App store (why not encourage them to also port them to BlackBerry World). Which as far as we know, gets BlackBerry nothing in the way of revenues. The fact they traded one dying ecosystem for another, is not very encouraging.

    I'll admit I'm negative on BlackBerry... but I see them doing the same things over and over. And while Chen is new, the plans for the Classic and Manitoba are in fact classic BlackBerry. Old hardware, that is just good enough to run what is needed today - usually at a higher margin than the competitions low end devices. We'll have to see where the pricing is on these device.. if it's $199 - $250 then I stand corrected, if it's $499 a device then it's BlackBerry of old.
    Definitely some valid points.

    I still uphold there's a hefty amount of big hard news adoption stories of this company here and that government there embracing BB10 that naysayers seem to neglect to consider and/or write off failing to take into account combined value, but I digress.

    I almost didn't, but I couldn't pass up buying the Z30 at its discounted price. It is finally priced what it SHOULD have been since day one. I give you that. BlackBerry needs to wake up in that department and hopefully Chen will change that.

    Tentatively, the Z30 is my last BlackBerry until further notice. It may be my last BlackBerry ever if my outcome C comes true on my other thread (death of handset division and BlackBerry drops BB10 regular updates and moves to MDM only).

    Z10, Z30, and Nexus 5. I don't care what comes out. I'm done until 2016. The Z30 simply addresses what I feel missing in the Z10, and I'm buying the Z30 based on what it is today, not based on hoping things will "get better".

    -STV on Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.3247 TMO US
  12. scalemaster34's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by STV0726 View Post
    Definitely some valid points.

    I still uphold there's a hefty amount of big hard news adoption stories of this company here and that government there embracing BB10 that naysayers seem to neglect to consider and/or write off failing to take into account combined value, but I digress.

    I almost didn't, but I couldn't pass up buying the Z30 at its discounted price. It is finally priced what it SHOULD have been since day one. I give you that. BlackBerry needs to wake up in that department and hopefully Chen will change that.

    Tentatively, the Z30 is my last BlackBerry until further notice. It may be my last BlackBerry ever if my outcome C comes true on my other thread (death of handset division and BlackBerry drops BB10 regular updates and moves to MDM only).

    Z10, Z30, and Nexus 5. I don't care what comes out. I'm done until 2016. The Z30 simply addresses what I feel missing in the Z10, and I'm buying the Z30 based on what it is today, not based on hoping things will "get better".

    -STV on Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.3247 TMO US
    Really the only thing that is important, if it works for you....
  13. THBW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalemaster34 View Post
    BlackBerry hasn't given up on any customers... they'll sell to anyone. But with the Z3 not making much headway and the only two official devices in the current line up being designed more for the enterprise market.... along with the fact that they have given up on a ecosystem of their own. It's apparent the consumer market has given up on BlackBerry...

    And sorry but Chen isn't keeping his mouth shut.... he has talked about EVERYTHING he could to boost BlackBerry image. More than any one product, they need to be seen as a stable company with a future if they want enterprise to "buy in". The Ship is already sinking, it doesn't do any good to be quite about some secret project. Most of the stuff he has talked about has been stuff still on the drawing boards.....
    Well, if you look at recent shipments, BlackBerry number are up at a time they should be going down due to the standard inventory reductions that come before new product releases. So your initial comment doesn't hold.

    As to Chen, he is a master at generating headlines without saying anything new. It's actually an admirable quality in a CEO. If you think he was telling you something you didn't already know, well he's got you fooled too. Sorry to break the news.

    Posted via CB10
  14. Prem WatsApp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by THBW View Post
    Well, if you look at recent shipments, BlackBerry number are up at a time they should be going down due to the standard inventory reductions that come before new product releases. So your initial comment doesn't hold.

    As to Chen, he is a master at generating headlines without saying anything new. It's actually an admirable quality in a CEO. If you think he was telling you something you didn't already know, well he's got you fooled too. Sorry to break the news.

    Posted via CB10
    Good observation regarding John Chen's press / PR tactics...

    Still, the company seems to be stabilizing, but it/he needs time. So there won't be too many new facts to boast about while he's still working on the patient's recovery...



    ? BlackBerry? I premdict the future's gonna be chenomenal! ?

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