Only 1.3 Million BlackBerry 10 Devices Would Push BlackBerry into the Black, says Analyst

**sonbuster** · 02-25-2013, 07:40 PM

Only 1.3 Million BlackBerry 10 Devices Would Push BlackBerry into the Black, says Analyst - N4BB

Every analyst and their mother seems to be making predictions on BlackBerry 10 sales. The latest is Bernstein Research’s Pierre Ferragu, who reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock.

Ferragu says BlackBerry may post profit in its June-ending Fiscal Q1 results, beating expectations. This could potentially boost the stock to $20 0r $25.

“Only 1.3m Blackberry 10 units would be sufficient to push the company into the black” Ferragu writes, urging investors to look past recent reports of slow initial sales.

**Jack_Yugis** · 02-25-2013, 07:41 PM

I think more 1.3m Blackberry 10 units push the company.

**dbmalloy** · 02-25-2013, 08:05 PM

so much contridictory info from all these analysts makes my head hurt.... no longer taking it seriously anymore... will wait for reality to set in on the March 28 quarterly report.....

**drummer_god** · 02-25-2013, 08:09 PM

Finally some speculative reporting from the bull side!

**kfh227** · 02-25-2013, 09:06 PM

Say 1 million phones is break even. Each additional 1 million phones add $100 million in free cash flow. if they sell 21 million this year, that is $2 billion in free cash flow. This math just gets better and better!

**chrysaurora** · 02-25-2013, 11:24 PM

Originally Posted by kfh227

Say 1 million phones is break even. Each additional 1 million phones add $100 million in free cash flow. if they sell 21 million this year, that is $2 billion in free cash flow. This math just gets better and better!

How is this even possible? Say, $200 profit per phone (and I think I am over estimating profit margin, it's probably $150 per device). Then 1 million x $200 = $200 million. $200 Million can't possibly be break-even.

**swaxolez** · 02-26-2013, 01:21 AM

Originally Posted by chrysaurora

How is this even possible? Say, $200 profit per phone (and I think I am over estimating profit margin, it's probably $150 per device). Then 1 million x $200 = $200 million. $200 Million can't possibly be break-even.

They still have revenue from enterprise clients and BB7 plus additional layoffs.

**Thunderbuck** · 02-26-2013, 01:27 AM

This is academic anyway; they may have more than half of this number booked by the end of February.

**drummer_god** · 02-27-2013, 11:57 AM

perhaps the analyst means 1.3 million Z10s sold for this quarter ( which ends March 2nd ) would put BB in the black for the quarter?

theres no way he thinks 1.3 million sold on the year would put them in the black.

**dusdal** · 02-27-2013, 12:05 PM

If all else stayed the same from last quarter, assuming $200 Gross per unit, then 1.3 million THIS quarter would push them into the black.

However, $200 per unit might be overdoing it. Also, I would expect their marketing costs to be much higher than last quarter. Also revenues from BB7 devices might be a good chunk lower than the December 2012 quarter.

Though, I like his optimism!

Edit: I looked at the link and it appears he is referring to sales in the June 2013 quarter. This might be reasonable to assume, particularly with cost cutting that hasn't been realized yet. Also, 1.3 in the June-ending quarter is very doable.

**Marc_Paradise** · 02-27-2013, 01:47 PM

Originally Posted by dusdal

If all else stayed the same from last quarter, assuming $200 Gross per unit, then 1.3 million THIS quarter would push them into the black.

However, $200 per unit might be overdoing it. Also, I would expect their marketing costs to be much higher than last quarter. Also revenues from BB7 devices might be a good chunk lower than the December 2012 quarter.

Though, I like his optimism!

Edit: I looked at the link and it appears he is referring to sales in the June 2013 quarter. This might be reasonable to assume, particularly with cost cutting that hasn't been realized yet. Also, 1.3 in the June-ending quarter is very doable.

1.3 in the June-ending quarter would be a disaster - even if it pushed them into black. Remember, people are looking to compare against MSFT/NOK right now. NOK pushed 4 million last quarter - so even if BBRY is in the black, if they do it on 1.3mm sales the stock will tank.

**Sith_Apprentice** · 02-27-2013, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by Marc_Paradise

1.3 in the June-ending quarter would be a disaster - even if it pushed them into black. Remember, people are looking to compare against MSFT/NOK right now. NOK pushed 4 million last quarter - so even if BBRY is in the black, if they do it on 1.3mm sales the stock will tank.

This would be 1.3 million in addition to the millions they will sell for BB7.1 - devices. Total shipments had better exceed 4mil by a WIDE margin (lets hope total is double that +)

**darkehawke** · 02-27-2013, 01:53 PM

pfft what do analysts know! right?
or are we agreeing with this one?
i lose track

**chrysaurora** · 02-27-2013, 02:05 PM

Originally Posted by Sith_Apprentice

This would be 1.3 million in addition to the millions they will sell for BB7.1 - devices. Total shipments had better exceed 4mil by a WIDE margin (lets hope total is double that +)

True. But a lot of (potential) BB 7.1 customers must have put-off their purchases until BB 10 based device is released in their market, at a price that they can afford. So, it'd be interesting to see how it plays out.

**dusdal** · 02-27-2013, 02:10 PM

Originally Posted by Marc_Paradise

1.3 in the June-ending quarter would be a disaster - even if it pushed them into black. Remember, people are looking to compare against MSFT/NOK right now. NOK pushed 4 million last quarter - so even if BBRY is in the black, if they do it on 1.3mm sales the stock will tank.

Agree it would. Just finding the context for the 'analyst'.

**OMGitworks** · 02-27-2013, 02:39 PM

Originally Posted by Marc_Paradise

1.3 in the June-ending quarter would be a disaster - even if it pushed them into black. Remember, people are looking to compare against MSFT/NOK right now. NOK pushed 4 million last quarter - so even if BBRY is in the black, if they do it on 1.3mm sales the stock will tank.

THIS. Let's get some perspective here. 4Q Windows and BB phone sales were considered almost laughable and they were 6.4 and 7.3 million respectively. Beating 300,000 doesn't help BBRY. Beating 1.5M in the short term, may help, but the real sales numbers over the next few quarters need to be MUCH higher. Here's hoping.

**Dapper37** · 02-27-2013, 06:30 PM

4.4 million nok wp8 sales in the holiday quarter. after being fully launched
compaired to a 1.5 million 1/3 launched Z10 in the slow season, is not all that bad IMO
If thats how it comes down.

**Bbnivende** · 03-02-2013, 11:52 AM

Originally Posted by Dapper37

4.4 million nok wp8 sales in the holiday quarter. after being fully launched
compaired to a 1.5 million 1/3 launched Z10 in the slow season, is not all that bad IMO
If thats how it comes down.

I don't think the stock market will pass judgment on BB until the Z10 and Q10 have had a full Q in the USA market. The market is all about perceptions in the USA.

**uzmarvel** · 03-02-2013, 03:06 PM

Only Apple can have 150-200$ profit per device. Companies will be happy when they have 60-80$ profit per device. Otherwise Samsung would have had the most of the cash today.

7.1 are sold mostly outside North America and Europe, so they are still going to sell good in Asia and Africa.

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