[northernrds]

BlackBerry Sales Analysis: Store Checks Likely Bogus | BGR


Just how flawed are Wall Street�s BlackBerry store checks?
By Tero Kuittinen on May 28, 2013 at 11:45 AM

Obviously, estimating smartphone sales volumes is fiendishly difficult. BlackBerry beat the Wall Street consensus on BlackBerry 10 device shipments by 100% in the February quarter. Most hedge funds have long suspected that most �store check� research reports are crude hoodoo, particularly outside the United States. But now former London hedge fund analyst Michael Collins has published a very detailed piece on just how dreadful the quality of even top-tier Wall Street store checks can be. The target here is Brian Modoff, the telecom analyst at Deutsche Bank, and this is a particularly relevant smack-down because we are talking about a leading brokerage.

In his piece, Michael Collins brings up a number of points, but two very blunt lines of questioning about Deutsche Bank�s store checks are pivotal.

Why did Modoff�s team conduct half of their U.K. store checks at the Everything Everywhere chain� before the BlackBerry Q10 was even widely available at this retailer? Did his team not realize that it�s dicey to do store checks during the preorder stage?
Why didn�t Modoff do store checks at Carphone Warehouse or Phones4u � arguably the most important consumer points of sale for smartphones in the U.K.? Why do checks at O2 stores, but not at Vodafone, which is traditionally BlackBerry�s strongest partner in the U.K.?
Store checks have long been one of the wobbliest parts of sell-side research on Wall Street. It�s interesting to see a British ex-buy side client finally give a detailed critique about the practice.

[RubenDM]

Because a lot of people want bbry to fail...

BlackBerry Sales Analysis: Store Checks Likely Bogus | BGR


Just how flawed are Wall Street’s BlackBerry store checks?
By Tero Kuittinen on May 28, 2013 at 11:45 AM

Obviously, estimating smartphone sales volumes is fiendishly difficult. BlackBerry beat the Wall Street consensus on BlackBerry 10 device shipments by 100% in the February quarter. Most hedge funds have long suspected that most “store check” research reports are crude hoodoo, particularly outside the United States. But now former London hedge fund analyst Michael Collins has published a very detailed piece on just how dreadful the quality of even top-tier Wall Street store checks can be. The target here is Brian Modoff, the telecom analyst at Deutsche Bank, and this is a particularly relevant smack-down because we are talking about a leading brokerage.

In his piece, Michael Collins brings up a number of points, but two very blunt lines of questioning about Deutsche Bank’s store checks are pivotal.

Why did Modoff’s team conduct half of their U.K. store checks at the Everything Everywhere chain… before the BlackBerry Q10 was even widely available at this retailer? Did his team not realize that it’s dicey to do store checks during the preorder stage?
Why didn’t Modoff do store checks at Carphone Warehouse or Phones4u — arguably the most important consumer points of sale for smartphones in the U.K.? Why do checks at O2 stores, but not at Vodafone, which is traditionally BlackBerry’s strongest partner in the U.K.?
Store checks have long been one of the wobbliest parts of sell-side research on Wall Street. It’s interesting to see a British ex-buy side client finally give a detailed critique about the practice.

[ibpluto]

There is an enourmous amount of wealthy people that stand to lose a substantial amount of scratch if Blackberry stays steady ..... there is potential to put Hedge funds in dire straits if Blackberry does well (ala TSLA). For a company that has the market cap that it does, market share that it does, how do people account for the attention it gets (good, bad or otherwise)?

The real issue is in the US, where the greater proportion of negative sentiment comes from. Many funds are long on AAPL and GOOG, and short on BBRY. Considering most trading is done via computers and algorythms now, negative sentiment is picked up via shady negative reports (ie flawed store checks) and negative tweets and translated to sell orders, driving SP down.

Fundimental traders will note the company is awash in cash, has new products, established subscriber base, and still strong market share in other parts of the world, with market share inscreasing in other key areas (Canada and the UK). Anyone that has HONESTLY used new BB10 devices would be full of crap to say that they are not strong products with plenty of compelling reasons to own.

The only thing that can combat this is a positive ER, and this is why the US at this stage might not matter to BBRY. If the rest of the world can spin a profit for them, and allow expectations to be at least met on teh ER, it will send shorts running. Once shorts are out of the game, the sentiment will return to positive, as the product itself is excellent.

[RubberChicken76]

Surprised no one noted that BGR was the one that published this ...