Buying it at anything below $15 should net you a nice return come the 30th. I feel that major gains will come around Q2-Q3 if you wait it out.
When you think about it, RIM isn't stupid and know that this is their last chance at getting back in the game. Thorsten wouldn't release another product unless he knew it would be at least a decent contender in the market today. Their commitment to app development ($10,000 sales guarantee), plus the compatibility with android gingerbread apps like the Play Book - or better yet maybe Jelly Bean compatibility? shows they have an understanding of what the devices are lacking with mass market consumers and fixing that. Potential Jelly Bean compatibility would be huge for BB10, yes Jelly Bean is speculation however I don't see it being overly far fetched considering current compatibility with Gingerbread.
Combine that with the improvements to the hardware, BBM video chat, BBM voice chat, voice command control (probably being something like siri) and you have the makings of a decent phone with just that alone. This would be a huge improvement in comparison to their existing units and would certainly bring a lot of old consumers back to blackberry.
Their current state of the company overall is also not bad, the company is still doing well overseas and has cash + patents. When they were selling at 6$ a share there was a lot of speculation built in to that price that BB10 would fail and the leadership change didn't do it any favours. Now that BB10 launch is nearing, the speculation is decreasing and the stock is trading around where it should be.
Should the sh!t hit the fan and BB10 is a complete flop, the buyout would probably be around 15$+ per share.
This is my personal opinion but I see a brighter future for RIM ahead. A lot of people that are trading RIM don't have a good understanding of the technology and just look at the financials, number crunch the charts, and respond to news (these are not people like us that dig through forums). If you dig deeper into BB10 and compare it to the old phones + whats out in the market you can see that it would be competitive just with the stuff we currently know from the development phones. BB10 probably wont blow the competition out of the water (maybe it will?) but it will compete and offer old consumers the features they have always wanted out of their blackberry. I think RIM at around 15$ is a safe buy.
Just my 2 cents.