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- CrackBerry Genius
12-19-12, 08:33 AM #1255
- 2,226 Posts
CNBC has after and pre market quotes and real time during the day. I don't trade off those quotes but they are very good and it works well on my BB too. I would not give them much weight on most days, volumes are very light in those markets and a 4 cent move in after or pre-market is virtually meaningless. Now after earnings are released, then I would take a look that day and the next morning. Be advised that it is very common for a stock to overshoot, either up or down in the after and pre-market and then moderate when earnings are released. Should be interesting.
- 12-19-12, 09:51 AM #1260
UBS admits fraud, to pay whopping fine in Libor rigging settlement
Katharina Bart and Tom Miles
Zurich — Reuters
Published Wednesday, Dec. 19 2012, 2:20 AM EST
Last updated Wednesday, Dec. 19 2012, 6:46 AM EST
Swiss bank UBS was hit with a $1.5-billion fine on Wednesday, admitting to fraud, paying bribes to brokers and “pervasive” manipulation of global benchmark interest rates by dozens of staff in a deal with international authorities.
The penalty agreed with U.S., U.K. and Swiss regulators is more than three times the $450-million fine levied on Britain’s Barclays in June, also for rigging the Libor benchmark rate used to price financial contracts around the globe.
It is the second-largest fine paid by a bank and comes a week after Britain’s HSBC agreed to pay the biggest ever penalty – $1.92-billion – to settle a probe in the United States into laundering money for drug cartels.
The revelations are another blow to UBS, which has had a tough 18 months after suffering a $2.3-billion loss in a rogue trading scandal, management upheaval and thousands of job cuts.
“We deeply regret this inappropriate and unethical behaviour. No amount of profit is more important than the reputation of this firm, and we are committed to doing business with integrity,” UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti said in a statement disclosing the extent of the wrongdoing, which took place over six years from 2005 to 2010.
UBS said it will pay $1.2-billion to the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, £160-million ($260-million) to the U.K.’s Financial Services Authority and 59 million Swiss francs ($65-million) from its estimated profit to Swiss regulator Finma.
“The core thing is it compares very poorly with Barclays’ fine as it’s three times the scale. It suggests there’s more egregious behaviour,” said Chris Wheeler, analyst at Mediobanca in London
The bank said the fines would widen its fourth quarter net loss but said it would not need to raise new capital as a result and traders said the fines were largely priced into the bank’s shares, which were expected to open slightly higher in Zurich.
Britain’s financial regulator said at least 45 people were involved in the rigging across three continents, which took place across a range of Libor currencies. It i n volved senior managers at UBS directing traders to keep Libor submissions low in order to give the impression that the bank was able to borrow more cheaply than it would actually have been able to do so.
The British FSA said that after August 2007, when the U.S. sub-prime crisis raised doubts about the financial health of banks, UBS told its staff to “protect our franchise in these sensitive markets”.
The extent of the wrongdoing was highlighted in documents released by the FSA which showed that in January 2007, a trader asked a manager who supervised the submitter for Yen Libor and asked him to “...try to keep 6m and 3m libors up”.
The manager responded: “standing order, sir”.
The FSA said “the manipulation was conducted openly and was considered to be a normal and acceptable business practice by a large pool of individuals”.
The Libor benchmarks are used for trillions of dollars worth of loans around the world, ranging from home loans to credit cards to complex derivatives.
Tiny shifts in the rate, compiled from daily polls of bankers, could benefit banks by millions of dollars. But every dollar a bank benefited meant an equal loss by a bank, hedge fund or other investor on the other side of the trade - raising the threat of a raft of civil lawsuits.
In a memo to staff on Wednesday, Mr. Ermotti said it was too early to determine whether or how clients were affected, pending further regulatory probing of the rate fixing.
The steep fine for UBS is despite the bank, since 2011, co-operating with law-enforcement agencies in their probes. The bank said it received conditional immunity from some regulators.
A similar admission by Barclays in June touched off a political firestorm that forced its chairman and chief executive to quit. Mr. Ermotti said around 40 people had left UBS or been asked to leave the bank as a result of the investigation.
- 12-19-12, 10:03 AM #1261
I know it's sort of offtopic, but worth watching.
Jim Cramer's (Mad Money) true colors.
LiveLeak.com - Jim Cramer's full explanation of stock market manipulation
Jim Cramer has been hammering RIM for a very long time.
- 12-19-12, 06:41 PM #1265
Not too bad.
Stock to watch: Fund manager bets on RIM comeback
The Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Dec. 19 2012, 5:21 PM EST
Last updated Wednesday, Dec. 19 2012, 5:21 PM EST
Research In Motion Ltd.
Wednesday’s close: $13.49, up 2 cents
52-week trading range: $6.10 - $18.24 a share
Annual dividend: none
Analysts’ ratings: There were 6 buys, 25 holds and 16 sells, according to Bloomberg data. Target prices ranged from $4.92 to $16.80 a share.
Recent history: Shares of the BlackBerry smart phone maker went into freefall earlier this year amid fierce competition from the Apple iPhone and Google Android phones. After tumbling nearly 60 per cent this year, the stock has since rebounded in the fall and more than doubled. The recent rally has shaved RIM’s loss to just 9 per cent this year. Recent optimism comes amid wide debate as to whether the Jan. 30th launch of the touchscreen, BlackBerry 10 can turn around the fortunes of the former high-tech darling. In 2008, RIM’s shares topped $150 a share.
Outlook: RIM will be in the spotlight on Thursday as it releases third-quarter results after the closing bell. Its shares have climbed recently despite consensus analysts’ expectations of revenue falling 49 per cent to $2.65-billion, and a loss of 35 cents a share. “The quarter is not as important as whether it will be successful with the BlackBerry 10,” said Jim Huang, president of T.I.P. Wealth Management Inc., which owns the stock. “The previews of the product have been quite favourable so that gives RIM a chance. That is what is exciting for investors.”
As the stock sank to the $6-level this year, and global market share fell below 5 per cent, “the company was given up for dead,” Mr. Huang said. “The competition has been getting tougher, and has executed better than RIM in terms of product attractiveness and, more importantly, their availability of apps. RIM’s strength was in dealing with the IT departments of corporations and telecom carriers...but they are not nearly as important as making sure end-users are happy.”
A key third-quarter number to watch is the direction of RIM’s subscriber base. He expects that number to be flat as it continues to grow in some emerging markets even though it is losing share in the United States. “Also, the cash position will be important, he said. “They need to conserve their $2-billion in cash for the launch of BlackBerry 10.”
He is betting on a turnaround because he figures the BlackBerry 10’s new operating system will be on par with rivals, and that telecom carriers and even consumers want to see competitors for Apple and Android to avoid control by a big duopoly. If the new BlackBerry helps it to become the No. 3 player globally with a market share of 15 to 20 per cent, its stock could go “substantially higher,” he said. “If the BlackBerry 10 is successful, this will be a $30-stock in one to two years.” If the new phone is not successful, the stock probably has a value in the $5-to $7-range, he said. “They do have patents, and still have a good enterprise business, which will sustain for a reasonably long period of time. It [RIM stock] will not go to zero right way.”
- 12-19-12, 10:40 PM #1266If the new BlackBerry helps it to become the No. 3 player globally with a market share of 15 to 20 per cent, its stock could go “substantially higher,” he said. “If the BlackBerry 10 is successful, this will be a $30-stock in one to two years.” If the new phone is not successful, the stock probably has a value in the $5-to $7-range, he said.
Sure, $100 is technically more than $30.
- CrackBerry Abuser
12-20-12, 06:14 AM #1269
- 361 Posts
However, I think the market share projection is quite optimistic since Apple is only at 20% or so currently. If RIM ends up at 6% for 2013, that would be 50 million units, which would be pretty strong and would probably justify at $30+ price.
- CrackBerry Abuser
12-20-12, 08:09 AM #1270
- 381 Posts
50 million units by end of calendar 2013 is nearly impossible because they would not have reserved enough capacity to sell more than their upper target of around 20M.
20M should be considered a successful launch and you won't know if their sales are sustainable until late next year. They should start strong right out of the gate even in north america but sales will taper off after a couple of months. It is only then that a picture will emerge showing the future for RIM. Sales would have to be abysmal < 1M/mo or fantastaic > 5M/mo to make a judgement call on RIM's future before at least july/aug.
I don't know where that ~$5 estimate comes from. RIM should be broken up before they sink that low. Thor will not beat RIM into the ground. If BB10 is not successful, it will rather quickly become a reorg candidate.
- 12-20-12, 09:27 AM #1271
Guys, Please, please. Keep your expectations in check. RIM has a very tough road ahead. There's always risk when investing, especially in RIM. The stock can very well go down before it'll bounce. If you're investing with the expectation to become rich by next year, you will be disappointed. You have to remember that Google, Apple and Microsoft will not stop innovating, so even if RIM has a winner product in January, they better already have a follow-up product ready to lunch because competition will not wait.
We all want to get rich from RIM and it's nice to dream, but please let's stick with what's real
- 12-20-12, 10:00 AM #1272
This thread isn't about "stick with what's real".
It's about hopes and dreams.... RIM MIGHT be a $40 next year, or they could be back at $6 and force to start selling assets to survive. If you asked most odds makers and analyst (same thing), they'd give you better odds at the latter happening. But that is why there is so much potential for profit with RIM, but also why there is a good chance that a lot could be lost.
PlayBook was a great device, with a very nice OS (just not a finished one at release) - but even today it still doesn't sale. The main reason for this is the RIM does not have ANY ecosystem to use with the PlayBook. Until you see that RIM has provided a fix for this very important missing key to the mobile market, you need to be very careful about long term investing.
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