View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?
- 991. You may not vote on this poll
- CrackBerry Genius
11-27-2012, 09:51 PM #1001
- 1,777 Posts
I support RIM and I buy shares !
Damn. Beat me to 1000.
i just think the launch will go far beyond what they've currently demo'd.
They've demonstrated the OS and the SDKs for BB10. They've also flashed the hardware around. What hasn't been really demo'd is the software they've been developing on their own using cascades.
They bought jaycut, but how much have you heard about the jaycut app for BB10?
They're still playing their cards close to their chest. Everything up until now has been just a peek of what the platform is capable of doing.
- 11-28-2012, 04:46 AM #1003
I support RIM and I buy shares !
Cramer says it is overvalued. For all you stock newbies this means it is likely a buy. The time to get scared is when Cramer says to buy it. That will likely be near the top.
- 11-28-2012, 07:39 AM #1004
- 11-28-2012, 08:00 AM #1007
I don't necessarily disagree, but if it gets back down to 8 I'd say it was over for now. Hopefully it doesn't get there. Also we need to agree on a time frame. Its only a rally if you look at the last 3 months, anything longer than that and its a classic (and even small) dead cat bounce from much higher levels. Its all about your investment timeline.
Last edited by Superfly_FR; 11-28-2012 at 11:15 AM.
Back over $11 : done.
11-28-2012, 03:18 PM #1012
- 870 Posts
- CrackBerry Abuser
11-28-2012, 04:42 PM #1013
- 361 Posts
Currently you can get around nine Jan 2014 call options with $20 strike price for the same amount as 100 shares. If the price does make it up to $40, then the options would be worth $18k vs $4k if you purchased the shares themselves. Of course, if the stock is $20 or less when the options expire, then you'd be losing your entire investment.
It's a highly speculative play, so I didn't put too much into it. However, it may be a potential way to approach things if:
1. You're okay with losing most/all of the money that you spend on the call options.
2. You think that BB10 has a reasonable chance of success.
3. You think that success will result in a very large increase in the stock price. If you think that the BB10 launch will result in a $1-$2 EPS in FY14, translating into perhaps a $20 price, then it's probably better to go the stock route.
4. You think that if BB10 is not successful, then the stock price will take a large hit from current levels.
Taking a look at some of the scenarios that Peter Misek (as an example) outlined:
20% chance of $40 in 12 months, 20% chance of $10, 60% chance of $5 (changed from his $0 since I doubt that RIM will be worth $0 in 12 months even if the launch isn't a success) gives us an expected value of $13 vs the current price of $11+.
With the Jan 2014 call options at a $20 strike price, this would mean that the option would have a 20% chance at being worth $20 and an 80% chance of being worth $0. The expected value here is $4 vs. a current price of around $1.25.
So I figured that the risk/reward ratio was worth taking a shot at here with a limited amount of investment, although it really is a situation with an extremely high reward but also a very high risk, given that there is a hypothetical 80% chance of being left with nothing.
- 11-28-2012, 05:49 PM #1014
Likely a pump and dump. Before you guys flame me, if you want to speculate so can I. I'm just on the conservative side.
As a general rule of thumb, make sure you diversify away the risk and volatility like every knowledgeable portfolio manager should.Nokia 5100 > Nokia 3390 > Motorola T720i > Siemens M55 > Sony Ericsson k700i > Nokia N73 > BB Pearl 8110 > BB 9000 > BB 9700 > BB 9900
- CrackBerry User
11-29-2012, 07:44 AM #1017
- 57 Posts
- 11-29-2012, 03:10 PM #1023
- 11-29-2012, 05:10 PM #1025
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