[q649]

Did I miss somethin'?

Attachment 337449

Also...BlackBerry holding a press event this coming Tuesday

10 things to expect at Mobile World Congress | The Verge

Pretty sure you're referring to the $53/share 52 week high. Unless we were both under a rock for a while, it's an obvious mistake.

10.63
-0.13 (-1.21%)
Real-time: 1:13PM EST
NASDAQ real-time data - Disclaimer
Currency in USD
Range 10.60 - 10.80
52 week 7.01 - 12.63

[masterful]

Pretty sure you're referring to the $53/share 52 week high. Unless we were both under a rock for a while, it's an obvious mistake.

10.63
-0.13 (-1.21%)
Real-time: 1:13PM EST
NASDAQ real-time data - Disclaimer
Currency in USD
Range10.60 - 10.80
52 week7.01 - 12.63

Welcome back smeagol

#BBFactCheck

[Corbu]

In French:
PC Expert
Gagnant : BlackBerry Passport

Non BlackBerry n’est pas mort. L’entreprise, remise sur les rails par John Chen, est sur une pente ascendante notamment gr�ce � ses nouveaux services avec notamment un BBM devenu multiplateforme, l’arriv�e du tr�s r�ussi BES12 et les apparitions de VPN Authentication, WorkLife et SecuSuite. Autant de solutions qui �clairent les derniers terminaux de la marque Canadienne sous un nouveau jour. � commencer par le BlackBerry Passport ! Surprenant, �l�gant, atypique, novateur, audacieux m�me, ce mobile - r�solument pens� pour les � prosumers � - tranche radicalement avec la production actuelle o� tous les smartphones ressemblent de plus en plus uniform�ment � de simples �crans rectangulaires. La taille de son superbe �cran carr� (d’une d�finition de 1400x1400 pixels) se r�v�le vite un atout, aussi bien dans la lecture des tableaux et documents que dans la navigation sur les pages Web. Son autonomie est remarquable et sa compatibilit� avec les apps Android, un atout. Sa s�curit� est ind�tr�nable. Et sa technologie Blend permet d’afficher et r�pondre aux emails, SMS, conversations BBM re�ues sur le smartphone directement depuis son ordinateur (ou sa tablette) m�me si vous avez oubli� votre Smartphone � la maison. Elle change radicalement le quotidien et se montre vite indispensable.

Winner: BlackBerry Passport

Google Translate:

No BlackBerry is not dead. The company back on track by John Chen, is on the rise thanks to its new services including a BBM become multiplatform, the arrival of the very successful BES12 and apparitions VPN Authentication, and WorkLife SecuSuite. Many solutions that illuminate the last terminal of the Canadian brand in a new light. Starting with the BlackBerry Passport! Surprising, stylish, unique, innovative, daring even this mobile - resolutely thought for "prosumers" - contrasts sharply with the current production where all smartphones look more and more evenly simple rectangular screens. The size of the superb square screen (for a definition of 1400x1400 pixels) is quickly revealed an asset, both in reading the tables and documents in the navigation on Web pages. Its range is remarkable and its compatibility with Android apps, an asset. Its security is unbeatable. Blend and technology lets you view and respond to emails, SMS, BBM conversations received on the smartphone directly from their computer (or tablet) even if you have forgotten your smartphone at home. It radically changes daily and shows quickly indispensable.

[chrysaurora]

We are losing Google-BES partnership gains of last two days

[Munx]

Tuesday hardware announcement pointing to a pivoting keyboard with a July launch. Hope it looks hot.

Posted via CB10

[bungaboy]

We are losing Google-BES partnership gains of last two days

It's only money. Don't worry about it. it will come back. LoL

[CDM76]

We are losing Google-BES partnership gains of last two days

Yep. Typical of this manipulated market. Either sell when get the gains or hold on LONG and enjoy the ride.

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Hey, Morgan -- I hope you don't mind my asking a question about how you read charts.

Here's the wind up: Way back in the thread, I believe I remember you said your dissertation was on Bollinger Bands. You used to refer to BBs quite a bit in the past when BBRY stock was driven wildly up and down almost on a daily basis - and what you wrote helped me understand trading ranges, volatility, and even momentum a lot better. I've noticed that lately you are referring a lot more to 3-ema, which I've now started tracking and thinking about.

My question: Would you be willing to share a a few words about how you think about Bollinger Bands and 3-ema together? I do understand what they each are and how they are different, but my question is really more about how they can be used together to understand stock movements. In short, would you be willing to share a little of your unique genius?

Hi jxnb !!!

Thanks for the question and remembering that time in my life when I forgot about my family and wrote that paper!

There is a direct correlation between the Exponential Moving Average (ema) and the Bollinger Bands (bb) so let's try to frame how they work together here. I have always maintained that if you knew only a half dozen TA trading elements and you established some basic rules that govern when and what you should invest in, you will make far more money and be a successful investor in an environment where many chronically lose.

I often refer to the 200-dma and the 50-dma for basic TA analysis, in this case, you want the 200-dma to be moving sideways in the worst scenario and to be moving upward in the best. The same goes for the 50-dma, it has been followed for decades now as one of the major indicators for determining if a stock is healthy or not. In this case, you want to see the 50-dma crossing up through the much slower moving 200-dma, or at the very least, trading above it and moving higher. Now you have the basis for a good investment. But there are times when you are watching a stock closely and want to know whether you should be a buyer or a seller of the stock when it shows strength.

The best way to track your stock is to include a short term indicator like the "ema". The ema is much different than the 50-dma (50 day moving average) as it is dynamic in nature meaning that the current days trading is included in the averaging formula. So when a stock pops as BBRY did two days ago, the ema pops with it but not at the same beta because it is the product of the average of three days of trading, i.e., the close for the two previous days plus the dynamic trading for today. What this tells you is that the stock is showing strength relative to the past couple of days. When a stock does this over and over again, there is a trend that you need to be aware of. BBRY traded above its ema, it's 50-dma and held onto both at the end of trade on Wednesday. So why does it stop rallying if all is well and everyone wants to hold a position in it? It stops going higher simply due to the law of averages. That's where the Bollinger Bands come into play, they form the outside, best case scenario for any stock whether it is raising or falling. The bb's tell you that the probability of stock traveling two standard deviations above it's norm are less than 2.5% (the third SD is 5% for both sides of the equation) and you know we don't take on investments with a less than 2.5% chance of moving higher in this case. So BBRY tried again to move into that rare air of a third standard deviation and failed. It failed while the stock was in an uptrend, the ema was bullish and we had favourable news. Unless the news is so important that it changes the financial makeup of the company, the stock will fall back and trend toward its Bollinger Band levels of normal trading ranges for positive news.

So what we have today is the stock pausing to refresh itself, the Bands are widening up to handle the increasing volatility of the stock (its beta) and while we wait, the 3-ema is slowing down and still positive. Once we pause to refresh, the bands will allow further movement in the stock and what you would expect to see is the stock maintain its 3-ema trend, the stock to move higher in a much more predictable way, and for the over all trend to continue. The Bollinger Bands continue to expand as the oldest day, that 20th day, drops off in favour of the dynamic trade today. If you look at this chart, you will see why I warned the board that the bands are tight, that isn't the bad news, the tight bands tell us a big move is coming soon, but, the move up will be tempered by the band width themselves.



So pay attention to the 3-ema for all of your stocks, if the stock is below their 3-ema, it is likely going to trend lower, if it is higher the same for higher prices. Look at the bb's to see just how high you can go on this run before the stock has to pause to refresh. In addition, look at the volume of trading on these moves and of course always keep an eye on the RSI level. When all of these indicators are bullish, your stock is very likely to be going higher in a sustainable way.

Hope that helps!

[BanffMoose]

OT: "BlackBerry builds phones that wear in, not wear out"

I may have slightly misquoted the guy who said it but I think BlackBerry needs to revisit that thought. I just got off the phone with a guy from Wells Fargo. His work issued BlackBerry still has a trackball. The phones aren't cars...make 'em last but not last an eternity (in tech years).

He was surprised that I spoke glowingly about the new BB10 phones. Guess he was expecting me to say something disparaging about BlackBerry. LOL

[jxnb]

Morgan --

Thanks so much for this elegant, beautiful analysis! I have learned so very much from you over the past nearly three years, going from knowing nothing about technical analysis to knowing enough to get myself into some happy trouble. ;-) I am most fascinated by the interactions of indicators and their relationships. I really appreciate your sorting me out on how bbs and 3-ema can each be used in parts of my analysis - and together. I think it's safe to say that we're all blown away by your generosity in teaching and helping us.

With respect and admiration, jxnb

[morganplus8]

Morgan --

Thanks so much for this elegant, beautiful analysis! I have learned so very much from you over the past nearly three years, going from knowing nothing about technical analysis to knowing enough to get myself into some happy trouble. ;-) I am most fascinated by the interactions of indicators and their relationships. I really appreciate your sorting me out on how bbs and 3-ema can each be used in parts of my analysis - and together. I think it's safe to say that we're all blown away by your generosity in teaching and helping us.

With respect and admiration, jxnb

I just want to see a day when everyone is making money and upbeat about their investments. At some point of course, it would be nice to see many of you take over and tell me about some great investment ideas so there is a means in my madness!! LOL

I should have ended that long message with the range that we can expect the stock to trade within if all of this BB vs. EMA stuff works at all. If you look at the B Bands, the high or cap on the stock is currently at $ 10.69/shr and the low is the $ 10.57/shr on the EMA as it is dynamically obtained on the way down. Lets see if the stock closes inside these TA boundaries!

If the stock closes above $ 10.69/shr today, that is a very strong close and shows you what kind of strength we have here on a nothing day.

Take care.

[sidhuk]

I just want to see a day when everyone is making money and upbeat about their investments. At some point of course, it would be nice to see many of you take over and tell me about some great investment ideas so there is a means in my madness!! LOL

I should have ended that long message with the range that we can expect the stock to trade within if all of this BB vs. EMA stuff works at all. If you look at the B Bands, the high or cap on the stock is currently at $ 10.69/shr and the low is the $ 10.57/shr on the EMA as it is dynamically obtained on the way down. Lets see if the stock closes inside these TA boundaries!

If the stock closes above $ 10.69/shr today, that is a very strong close and shows you what kind of strength we have here on a nothing day.

Take care.

What did you do to the stock after this message Morgaplus8? LOL

[morganplus8]

What did you do to the stock after this message Morgaplus8? LOL

Ha! Ha! You know, this play is showing much better relative strength then HALO is, the two companies couldn't be farther apart in their business model and how much the media loves/hates them and yet BBRY is kickin' it today. I would like to see it close above $ 10.69/shr as that would be strong indeed, a good reason to be excited about events for next week.

[chrysaurora]

Ha! Ha! You know, this play is showing much better relative strength then HALO is, the two companies couldn't be farther apart in their business model and how much the media loves/hates them and yet BBRY is kickin' it today. I would like to see it close above $ 10.69/shr as that would be strong indeed, a good reason to be excited about events for next week.

Closed 10.81 but now down to 10.72 after hours!

So, Monday is MWC and news from BB. We might see some leaks over the weekend. Let's see how we do when BlackBerry drops news on us about new devices and 12 months roadmap.

I've loaded-up on options yet again (perhaps foolish of me to do it again). I now have 50 lots of BBRY strike $15 - Jan 2016 calls. Avg: $0.88 - currently showing loss as the current price is approx $0.71.

[W Hoa]

What did you do to the stock after this message Morgaplus8? LOL

This is certainly not the first time he's managed this. It's getting damned eerie around here. In a good way.

[La Emperor]

Someone picked up over 100K shares , AH.
I guess can't wait til Monday...

[ibpluto]

Closed 10.81 but now down to 10.72 after hours!

So, Monday is MWC and news from BB. We might see some leaks over the weekend. Let's see how we do when BlackBerry drops news on us about new devices and 12 months roadmap.

I've loaded-up on options yet again (perhaps foolish of me to do it again). I now have 50 lots of BBRY strike $15 - Jan 2016 calls. Avg: $0.88 - currently showing loss as the current price is approx $0.71.

Gutzy.... I'll give you that

CB10'n it....via da Z30

[randall2580]

I have to admit I am really looking forward to the road map coming on Tuesday.

Up to now, I think it's been clear Chen decided the initial BB10 phones were not what the faithful wanted and knew (just listen to him speak) that leveraging BlackBerry's best feature, the keyboard, was what he needed to do to stabilize the company from where it was. He fast tracked the Classic and let the Passport come, even though it seems he had some concerns about it and aren't we who have them glad he did!

I think this could be the pivot point now that there is some stability. So many of us are waiting on the Halo Phone - the full touch from BlackBerry that finally hits the ball out of the park. I hope it's on the road map.

I would also like to see BlackBerry announce a competing system for Car Play and Android Auto. Why not take the incredible QNX spine and build something remarkable? Many auto manufacturers will offer both CP and AA on their new crop of cars, why not 3? Especially since most of them run with QNX from the start. What is the difference between 2 or 3 offered services? There is a great podcast over on Android Central today I suggest go listen. They have an industry expert who says that most of the manufacturers will offer a system that notes what phone you plug in and then offers CP or AA accordingly. Shouldn't BlackBerry offer a competing system?

Anyway that's my Santa John Chen list. It's the weekend, what's on yours?

[lcjr]

Well said Randall, well said. I tell ya, I'm all over this QNX and the automotive industry, along with the possibilities in the shipping industries. Don't mean to sound condescending to folks on the thread but I'm finding it hard to identify with or understand why people on this thread are overly concerned with the number of devices offered and devices sold. To me it's all about the software and folks that have been here with me over the years know that has always been my opinion. Sure, it's great to have a fantastically developed and secured device at hand, but I'm seeing visions in the future when other top notch brands fade into the ablis as BlackBerry delivers secured software and business devices (many we've not even contemplated) to well paying government and corporate agencies. I think this thread would be more civil if everyone supporting BlackBerry tried to look at the future and how BlackBerry fits in and not just looking at the next few quarters. My thoughts on this anyway.

Posted via Passport

[lcjr]

Also I'd like to point out that this thread provides help and assistance, along with developed online friendships that can last throughout the years. Just today I had some free time and folks from another country I've developed a friendship with assisted me with downloading leaks for both my Q10 and Passport. Both work flawlessly. You'd be hard pressed to find a group that shares what we share with each other and learn from experiences across the globe. I'm thankful to be a part of this great group and hope when and if you get frustrated with the product, management, or this thread you remember there are folks here that would love a PM to assist or provide a venting venue. Have a great BlackBerry weekend folks and just for fun, see how many BlackBerry products you can spot out there and let us know. Yes, that requires getting off the couch! Lol

Posted via Passport

[lcjr]

Ha! Ha! You know, this play is showing much better relative strength then HALO is, the two companies couldn't be farther apart in their business model and how much the media loves/hates them and yet BBRY is kickin' it today. I would like to see it close above $ 10.69/shr as that would be strong indeed, a good reason to be excited about events for next week.

Hey Morgan, haven't posted much but read everything every day. Just wanted to say thanks for all you continue to do and for taking time out of your extremely busy day to provide valuable and quantitative input. Things my way are really good now and soon you'll be communicating with me on Belgium time (got a promotion and new assignment overseas). I look forward to actually meeting you at the $100 party! This is gonna happen faster than most folks can understand, based on software and the areas this software is being introduced. Devices are nice but software rules the day. Have a great weekend Morgan and when you need an additional chuckle, picture meeting some of us based on avatars! Hahaha.

Posted via Passport

[DaSchwantz]

OT: "BlackBerry builds phones that wear in, not wear out"

I may have slightly misquoted the guy who said it but I think BlackBerry needs to revisit that thought. I just got off the phone with a guy from Wells Fargo. His work issued BlackBerry still has a trackball. The phones aren't cars...make 'em last but not last an eternity (in tech years).

He was surprised that I spoke glowingly about the new BB10 phones. Guess he was expecting me to say something disparaging about BlackBerry. LOL

I work for government and have had 4 or 5 work issued blackberries since my last trackball version. Is Wells Fargo really this backwards? If so, can you trust them with your money?

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

Which government? I'm with the US and see us going to just getting a good deal on any device and putting our software on them. My last organization just bought Q10sn but the trend in the DOD is going to be just any device and load our software.

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

OT: "BlackBerry builds phones that wear in, not wear out"

I may have slightly misquoted the guy who said it but I think BlackBerry needs to revisit that thought. I just got off the phone with a guy from Wells Fargo. His work issued BlackBerry still has a trackball. The phones aren't cars...make 'em last but not last an eternity (in tech years).

He was surprised that I spoke glowingly about the new BB10 phones. Guess he was expecting me to say something disparaging about BlackBerry. LOL

That's a good point you're making there my friend. I've seen organizations within the DOD that just continue to reassign phones to incoming personnel over and over and never update the devices. Then those same personnel of course complain about the crappy devices and make assumptions of BlackBerry based on prehistoric devices. Comical really, but sad in the professional sinse.

Posted via CB10

[Kris Erickson]

Icjr, you make a good point about "old " BB phones. A excellent example would be Sony Hack. The company went and got all the old BB phones from storage and re-issued them instead of going out and buying the lastest BB10 devices.