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- CrackBerry Genius
02-13-2013, 06:44 PM #5026
- 1,545 Posts
The first chart I drew today, had a low of $ 14.06/shr at that time, my last one is of course the end of the day. I have a 42 inch monitor and can do some decent charts on that but I was in a hurry to buy some more BBRY towards the close and slapped together a chart as fast as I could. Having said that, the lower uptrend line is clearly beginning to follow the 50-dma now and let's face it, the 50-dma is the premier support line at this time. We could see something just below the 50-dma as they try to push it through that milestone but it is nowhere near the $ 12.00/shr mark and you can bet that any future rallies in the stock will be muted if it ever breaks below that uptrend line. When a stock falls below its trend line, it is now a recovery stock where everyone that has ever owned it wants out on the rallies thus limiting its upside potential.
The area you talk about, the $ 11.50 to $ 12.00 area, is really support for the RSI as it would be reading 70 plus at that level and grossly over-sold. The problem we would have would be the destruction of the chart dating back to the Sept Double Bottom!!! If we lose that, we are going to trade sideways for months to come. One thing I should mention is that if we break below support or the 50-dma in this case, it has to confirm the trend change, that means it has to stay below the 50-dma for 3 or more days. To pop below it by Friday and then regain it on Tuesday means the trend is still up.
Here is the area you are talking about, it is clearly outside the boundaries:
In the past, we have dropped back to the uptrend line and bounced off it quickly, but a lot has changed this time around and I believe it is because our support occurs at much higher levels and is harder to justify. At the beginning of the rally it is easy to get a crowd to buy the stock but now we are much higher and hoping the company will do enough to get analysts to raise their targets. This is a dangerous game as we are relying on others to help the stock along. On top of all of this, the traders are heavily short the stock preventing it from going to crazy levels. They are now in control of the stock as there is no threat of news at the moment. I would like to see it stay within this channel for a month or so, see how the USA does on the launch and go from there. That would take us over $ 20.00/shr.. Will it happen? We'll know more tomorrow, but I have to say, it is ripe for a pop here back to $ 17.00/shr.
Sorry if my message is confusing at times, I pump these charts out quickly and get back to my trading. I really just want everyone to see that the stock is following a well defined trend here and we need to keep it intact. Good luck!
- 02-13-2013, 06:59 PM #5027
From another thread:
Is Blackberry back in the race? | YouGov - BrandIndex
EDIT: OK, that chart tells you what people's general perception is for the given brands
Blackberry, iPhone, and Galaxy were measured with YouGov BrandIndex’s Buzz score, which asks “If you've heard anything about the brand in the last two weeks, through advertising, news or word of mouth, was it positive or negative?
- 02-13-2013, 07:04 PM #5029
BBRY produces nearly $2 billion in free cash flow a year. It has no debt and about $3B in cash/equivalents.
If one uses a 10x multiple (I will not explain where the 10x comes from but there if interested, read about DCF) on FCF and add in cash, this company is worth $23B. Or about $45 a share.
Buying long dated calls:
1) is a way to use leverage with some risk (google call option risk)
2) provides a good amount of time for price to follow value.
It's a long term strategy. The lower the strike, the safer the investment. So, the $7 strikes are safer.
BUT MY PLAY. I have enough long dated options. I'm just buying these long dated calls as a short term trade. I'll keep doing it as long as BBRY keeps bouncing around like this.
- 02-13-2013, 07:19 PM #5030
What do you guys think BBRY are doing? Sitting on their hands after the launch. Not a chance! The "Gang" in Waterloo are working hard to address the bugs, no doubt about it. Lots of us know people on the inside and we know they report bugs and improvement requests internally and you can bet your last dollar that they are actively collecting intel from Crackberry, N4BB, and BlackberryOS. We can report them faster then they can fix them, that's for sure and we need to remember that bugs are different than enhancements. They probably spend a lot of money just sorting the wheat from the chaf coming for the fansites.
I would think their focus right now is on debugging/modifying BB10 for the Q10. The Keyboard legacy is probably a really big PITA for them right now. The reasoning behind the Z10 release far ahead of the Q10 was to show the diehards that keyboards aren't required for speed and accuracy. They wanted to get the slab out and get us diehards to give it a try. Have you heard of anybody, anywhere that used a Z10 and switched back to a keyboard? ...didn't think so.
Alex and Co are still wooing the developers, but they aren't going to announce anything big before March, why would they. Keep the news for the release. Let the market manipulators have their fun in the "short" term (pun intended).
Someone mentioned shorts being P.O.ed because they couldn't beat it down fast enough. Hey, I'd be P.O.ed too if my families dinner money was trapped in the market. Who do you think are buying up the shares the shorts are dumping on the market? Insiders? sure, a few. retailers (that's us)? sure, a few more. Institutions...? The really deep pockets that can influence the market without even denting their accounts, you bet'cha!
Apple might be able to demand that the US carriers buy a gazillion IP5 just to carry their products and that is part of the reason for the 'tepid' response in the US. We hear rumors about big pre-orders in the US and when the consumer whim swings away from apple (and it inevitably will), they'll shun apple just as hard as they're shunning BBRY now.
We all know that this is a roller-coaster, we knew it coming in. A couple of months ago as we got pulled up and up and up, people were talking about 2, 10, 100-baggers! We've only gone through the first few rollers so, just strap in, sit back and enjoy the ride. oh and smile for the camera, your picture will be available for purchase at the exit!8820 -> 9550 -> 9380 ->Z10. PB 1.0 -> PB2.1 -> PB??
- CrackBerry Master
02-13-2013, 07:56 PM #5031
- 1,200 Posts
- 02-13-2013, 08:06 PM #5032
So thanks again for everything, and keep it up! Look forward to seeing your posts whenever they pop upHi, I'm Alex Bass - Website Designer, App Developer & Owner of CyberBytes Inc.
I made the BFB Certified App Web Design Cheat Sheet using Native Cascades. The App is Free - More Info About WDCS
Web Design/Development Channel - C000BEB17 | WDCS App Channel - C000BEB17 (Sneak Peeks, Leaks, and More)
Personal Twitter - @Flip4Bytes | Company Twitter - @CyberBytesInc
- CrackBerry User
02-13-2013, 08:11 PM #5033
- 76 Posts
- CrackBerry Addict
02-13-2013, 08:23 PM #5034
- 588 Posts
I'd be utterly shocked if this had any affect on the stocks.
- CrackBerry Abuser
02-13-2013, 08:37 PM #5036
- 192 Posts
- CrackBerry Abuser
02-13-2013, 08:43 PM #5037
- 427 Posts
RIM has faced resistance in the U.A.E. and other Persian Gulf countries to the launch of so-called Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services, because of fears that they would pose a threat to the revenues from traditional voice services offered by the region's carriers. In the U.A.E., Dubai-based Du and Abu Dhabi-based Etisalat are the duopoly providers of telecoms services.
Both Du and Blackberry confirmed that they have started testing VoIP and internet video functions on the Blackberry 10, and said they expect to launch the service to customers in the near future. The functions were missing when Blackberry launched its new device in the U.A.E. on Sunday because both Du and Etisalat had blocked the Blackberry application which is needed to launch the services.
"Our partners are currently testing the service. They will announce availability when they're ready," a BlackBerry official in Dubai said in an emailed statement. An official at Du confirmed that the new BlackBerry Messenger voice and video services are being tested, but said an agreement to launch the products was not guaranteed yet. Etisalat declined to comment.
The launch of RIM's VoIP service, known as BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) video and voice, would provide the Canadian company with an advantage over rival handset providers in the U.A.E., as its competitors--Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (005930.SE), Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Nokia Corp. (NOK)--are still unable to provide such services. Other VoIP services, such as Apple's FaceTime and Microsoft's Skype, are blocked in the U.A.E., either because they can't be downloaded or because they're not made available on smartphone hardware.
"It would be an advantage to have that feature available," said Matthew Reed, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms and Media in Dubai. "It's a clear advantage for BlackBerry."
But the move could damage revenues for the established phone companies, depending on how the operators charge customers for the services. Carriers in the oil-rich Persian Gulf are particularly wary of allowing foreign companies to provide VoIP services because they have high roaming charges and large expatriate populations who need to phone relatives in their home countries.
"In other markets BBM Video would be a non-issue, but it is for Du and Etisalat because if they give up international calls as a source of profit they would have to look at other ways to win that back," said Edwin Grummitt, head of Middle East at Analysys Mason, a consultancy based in London. "I cannot see how the operators can commercially make this work," he added.
Traditional voice calls are charged depending on the length of the call and the country receiving the call. VoIP calls are usually free to anywhere in the world, once the user has purchased a fixed-cost data package from a telecoms operator. VoIP services will cost the global telecoms industry $479 billion in lost cumulative revenues by 2020, which represents 6.9 % of cumulative total voice revenues, according to consultancy Ovum.
Etisalat, which is present in 15 countries across the Middle East, Africa and Asia, made revenue in the first nine months of last year of 24.4 billion dirhams ($6.6 billion), while Du, which is present only in the U.A.E., had 7.4 billion dirhams of revenue in the same period. The operators do not break out revenues from voice calls, but analysts say income has been falling in recent years as customers have worked out ways to get around the ban on free internet-based voice services.
BBM is one of BlackBerry's most popular offerings, with more than 60 million active members using the free instant messaging service. In other markets, BlackBerry has offered a voice function for BBM since December on its BlackBerry 7 operating system. It launched the video service on the new BlackBerry 10 late last month.
RIM doesn't break out the number of BlackBerry users in the Gulf region, but analysts say its market penetration in the region is above the global average. Reflecting that popularity, Dubai was chosen by RIM as one of just six cities globally for the launch of the BlackBerry 10 operating system and its two new phones, the Z10 and Q10.
Retailers across the U.A.E. report strong sales of the new Blackberry Z10, though RIM has declined to provide figures. A launch date for the Q10 in the region has not been announced but the handset is expected in the U.S. in April.
A senior executive at EMS, the official distributor of BlackBerry handsets in the U.A.E., said sales had been "mind-boggling" so far for the Z10, but declined to give exact figures and did not want to named as he is not the official spokesman for BlackBerry.
In 2010 the U.A.E. threatened to ban Blackberry services in the U.A.E. on security grounds, because the government was unable to monitor text messages sent via the BBM system. The two sides subsequently reached an undisclosed agreement to allow continued Blackberry sales.
An official at the U.A.E.'s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority, who requested anonymity, said that the BBM voice and video services will also comply with that agreement.
Write to Rory Jones at firstname.lastname@example.org
RIM close to deal to offer internet voice services in UAETelecoms & IT - Zawya
- 02-13-2013, 08:48 PM #5038
Sorry but disagree...of course they can make an entry level phone....can a company based in China with local knowledge make it cheaper and reduced risk to BlackBerry while still providing set profit per device....
Posted using CrackBerry App on BB10Be nice, it's free.
- CrackBerry User
02-13-2013, 08:50 PM #5041
- 35 Posts
- 02-13-2013, 08:58 PM #5043
- CrackBerry Addict
02-13-2013, 09:06 PM #5044
- 822 Posts
I hope the investors in this thread didn't get shaken out by this drop. This was definitely hard to watch, especially last hour. I was able to pick up few hundred shares earlier in the day thinking that it wouldn't drop past 14.4 (CAD) but then it went into a freefall on some really questionable "news".
The deep pockets are very much in control of this stock, it was evident since Monday morning that this is an option play. Options expire on Friday so things will start going back to normal. Problem is that we need to entice some new buyers to jump in, we'll definitely get some value buyers at this price plus whoever has been shorting since Monday will probably start covering but unless we get some real news the recovery will be slow.
- 02-13-2013, 09:07 PM #5045
They're already making blackberry knockoffs in china. they call them blueberrys! RIM execs use to travel to china to get ideas about different architecture. its the reason my 9380 has an fm radio built in. Tap into the "Blueberry" market with the licensed security of BB and we're off to the races!8820 -> 9550 -> 9380 ->Z10. PB 1.0 -> PB2.1 -> PB??
- CrackBerry Addict
02-13-2013, 09:21 PM #5047
- 822 Posts
- CrackBerry Abuser
02-13-2013, 09:38 PM #5048
- 115 Posts
- CrackBerry Genius
02-13-2013, 09:39 PM #5049
- 3,534 Posts
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