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View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    644 64.46%
  • No

    355 35.54%
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  1. Zarpan's Avatar
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    #4676  

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    I think the problem is that he is comparing BBRY now to the glory days where they could easily get both 35% device margins + hefty service revenues from the same customer. BBRY was getting 50+% gross margins at the time. That's pretty unrealistic to expect similar margins now though. If BBRY had those margins with just their current revenues, I think they'd be making a billion per year.

    He should really be comparing BB10 margins with margins from BB7 devices + service revenue margins. I think I outlined it in a previous post, but a BB10 customer is worth up to around 5x as much as a BB7 customer even if you factored in zero service revenues.

    BB10 customer: $175 in device margins + unknown service margins

    BB7 customer: negative $10 to negative $30 in device margins + $60-$90 in service margins = $30-$80 margin per customer.

    Service margin for BB7 BIS based on $3 per month, 85% margin, 24-36 months (margins and revenue per month sourced from some of Chris Umiastowski's posts). Device margins can be figured out from BBRY's earnings reports.

    So BB10 is a big positive in that if you sell 10 million BB10 phones instead of BB7 phones, you'd make $950 million to $1.45 billion extra in gross margin, even assuming 0 service, music, app world, etc... revenue

    Quote Originally Posted by Komoto View Post
    I read that article but failed to see his reasoning.

    So BBRY makes more money from selling BB and it is immediate cashflow instead of a monthly fee. Sounds like a win win, sure BIS fees will drop.
    I have heard good things about BES10, so there is still the opportunity of holding on to at least a fair chunk of that with BES10.
    I have to be honest that i don't really know what the competition is like in this particular space, and it is something i had not really considered. Anyone with knowledge knows how it stands against competition?
    It seems as though he has completely overlooked a key point.

    I am sure BBRY will still be selling at least 2 million BB7 devices each quarter. If they have been selling approx 7 mil per quarter up to now, sounds reasonable.
    Each of these BB7 devices will have a service revenue fee attached to it.
    Not only that but what about revenue from app world, nfc payments, etc.
    There is also the potential of the OS which currently far surpasses the more established OSes in the market. He even mentioned the possibilities of connecting with vehicles.
    Am i missing something?
  2. StormieTwo's Avatar
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    #4677  

    Default

    So, today we had a low volume, slow news days, with the overall market down.
    Lets remember that people are creatures of habit, we all repeat efforts that bare fruit (including the short sellers) and we don't normally change our habits until we are forced to (if it ain't broke, don't fix it. right?). People have herd mentality too, we do things that we see other people doing when they are collecting the fruit. Its our herd of bulls against their herd (?) of bears.
    we need some hype (rumor) to carry interest through Feb into the US release and then follow that with a better then expected ER.
    8820 -> 9550 -> 9380 ->Z10. PB 1.0 -> PB2.1 -> PB??
  3. Andrew4life's Avatar
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    #4678  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by StormieTwo View Post
    So, today we had a low volume, slow news days, with the overall market down.
    Lets remember that people are creatures of habit, we all repeat efforts that bare fruit (including the short sellers) and we don't normally change our habits until we are forced to (if it ain't broke, don't fix it. right?). People have herd mentality too, we do things that we see other people doing when they are collecting the fruit. Its our herd of bulls against their herd (?) of bears.
    we need some hype (rumor) to carry interest through Feb into the US release and then follow that with a better then expected ER.
    We should just start spreading rumours (again) that Samsung is looking to take over BlackBerry.
    lol, considering Samsung is indeed looking to branch away from the Android platform, it's not hard to Sell this rumour. Then we can Buy on the rumour. I call it the rumour Spread. Ha ha.

    Fun with puns.
  4. BThunderW's Avatar
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    #4679  

    Default

    The morning "rally" triggered my buy stop I set up earlier, I couldn't get to the computer till after it came back down but through some quick trades I was able to restore the lost money. I've stopped funding the account with cash a while ago. Now just trying to increase my position simply by trading the stock.

    Quote Originally Posted by lcjr View Post
    \

    That's the way I saw it too. I increased by 20 shares when it dropped to $15.66 but now I'm tapped out on investing/trading for a bit. I'll probably sell when it goes over $18 because I bought in when it was $12.05. Then when it dipps again I'll have more funds to buy even more shares. But, as I stated before, this is my play money and it came from profit made from previous trading.
  5. kfh227's Avatar
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    #4680  

    Default

    Trading is a zero sum game. The only person that wins is the intermediary (your broker) who gets cash no matter which traders win.

    One day, people are going to sell BBRY on a run up and before you know it, it will be at $22.

    Mark my words.
  6. BThunderW's Avatar
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    #4681  

    Default

    I only play with a fraction of my shares so even if I miss a big rally, I'm simply risking less profit.


    Quote Originally Posted by kfh227 View Post
    Trading is a zero sum game. The only person that wins is the intermediary (your broker) who gets cash no matter which traders win.

    One day, people are going to sell BBRY on a run up and before you know it, it will be at $22.

    Mark my words.
  7. Charles Martin1's Avatar
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    #4682  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by W Hoa View Post
    Just To be clear - 10000 phones will be switched
    The home-improvement chain will swap out 10,000 BlackBerry models with iPhones, said Stephen Holmes, a spokesman for Atlanta-based Home Depot. The change won’t affect the 60,000 [Motorola] mobile devices used by store employees, he said. Apple Insider, which previously reported Home Depot’s switch to the iPhone, said the move would have no impact on the 60,000 rugged Motorola smartphones used by Home Depot’s store employees. Those devices provide mobile point-of-sale, analytical, walkie-talkie and traditional telephone services.


    BlackBerry stock falls as Home Depot ditches its phones | FP Tech Desk | Financial Post

    Just another example of the hacks doing what they do best...
  8. Shanerredflag's Avatar
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    #4683  

    Default

    ^^agree^^...I can see a slide down to mid 14's coming, if not tomorrow then the next day...we shall see...placed a buy at 14.90 for the next two days...I'm thinking it'll hit.
  9. cjcampbell's Avatar
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    #4684  

    Default

    I have to admire what BB is doing. They are really turning the tables on the consumer market. They have launched in the UK, Canada, and the UAE. By doing so, they are creating a buzz, (thankfully due to strong, we all assume, sales in the respective markets). What this is doing is turning the US market into, for the first time in a very long time, a me too market. The three markets they launched to first are influential on the world stage, and all very different in their own right. In consumerist markets, one must create a desire to own, and the only real powerful way of doing so, is showing that many others already do. Whether this was due to circumstance, or planned outright, I believe that the upcoming year will truly bleed black.
  10. jwdogfst's Avatar
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    #4685  

    Default

    It's not a question of whether it will bleed black but how much.
  11. cjcampbell's Avatar
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    #4686  

    Default

    Enough to make me, and many others, a pretty penny, or two.
  12. Shanerredflag's Avatar
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    #4687  

    Default

    I'm going to go spread "phone envy" next week at a bunch of golf courses, restaurants and beverage service joints in California....just trying to help.
    Thanked by:
    StormieTwo (02-12-2013) 
    MoolahMitch likes this.
  13. cjcampbell's Avatar
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    #4688  

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shanerredflag View Post
    I'm going to go spread "phone envy" next week at a bunch of golf courses, restaurants and beverage service joints in California....just trying to help.
    Damn you and your golf courses.. lol
  14. kfh227's Avatar
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    #4689  

    Default

    Just spent like 2 hours playing with call back spreads. Found some no money down ways to invest. Caveats:
    1) BBRY needs to get over $20 before expiration.
    2) BBRY can not go down much in order to prevent HUGE losses.
  15. Tinomane's Avatar
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    #4690  

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    Quote Originally Posted by kfh227 View Post
    Just spent like 2 hours playing with call back spreads. Found some no money down ways to invest. Caveats:
    1) BBRY needs to get over $20 before expiration.
    2) BBRY can not go down much in order to prevent HUGE losses.
    At what strikes and how far out?
  16. BBNation's Avatar
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    #4691  

    Default

    Latest short interest thoughts, Shorts redudced by 6 millions and days to cover is the lowest ever. Any thoughts on this ? The stock is volatile as it is but the reduced days to cover it might make it even more volatile. With this does not it also mean that # of floats recuded probbably costing more to short as well. share your thoguhts..thx
  17. chrysaurora's Avatar
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    #4692  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kfh227 View Post
    Just spent like 2 hours playing with call back spreads. Found some no money down ways to invest. Caveats:
    1) BBRY needs to get over $20 before expiration.
    2) BBRY can not go down much in order to prevent HUGE losses.
    Not sure I understood. Could you explain your strategy? Step by step?
  18. Tom689's Avatar
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    #4693  

    Default

    He's saying that when the price goes down the 20+ strike options will be worthless.

    The reduced short ratio is definitely something to think about. I believe there will be steady covering up to the earnings report. Bulls buying and selling long is a factor along with shorting we don't know which one has a bigger effect proportional to the traders active
  19. fedakd's Avatar
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    #4694  

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    There have been many occasions where I've heard rumours of there a) being no shares left to short of BBRY at certain discount brokerages; and, b) the negative rebate (price a short seller must pay to borrow the stock short) has increased substantially.

    Sometimes I take a step back and ponder this entire situation -- for the most part, short interest has increased in tandem with the stock price. Of course, many funds are now underwater as a result of Blackberry's significant run, but with the successful launches we've already had (better than previous BB7 launches by a substantial amount), the writing already seems to be on the wall for this company to return to black much sooner than the market expects. It is as if the shorts are delaying the inevitable. My worry here is how they will continue to put a negative spin on every single news article that comes out concerning Blackberry, good or bad. As Blackberry continues to get great reviews, numerous reports of android/iOS users switching, I can't help but wonder how 1/3 of the float can still be short...

    Have we completely ruled out the possibility that this is a synthetic short, used to lock up voting rights in the event of a possible hostile takeover? I know this sounds like a bold or even extreme statement, but how often do you see short interest increase so synonymously with the stock price...it's become completely illogical to be short Blackberry at this point.

    Just my thoughts at this point, perhaps I've had too much caffeine!

    Quote Originally Posted by BBNation View Post
    Latest short interest thoughts, Shorts redudced by 6 millions and days to cover is the lowest ever. Any thoughts on this ? The stock is volatile as it is but the reduced days to cover it might make it even more volatile. With this does not it also mean that # of floats recuded probbably costing more to short as well. share your thoguhts..thx
  20. BBNation's Avatar
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    #4695  

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    [QUOTE=fedakd;7972414]There have been many occasions where I've heard rumours of there a) being no shares left to short of BBRY at certain discount brokerages; and, b) the negative rebate (price a short seller must pay to borrow the stock short) has increased substantially.

    I have been following short interest for while..going back 2011-2012. The short interest supposed to be decreasing instead increasing, the only thing diffrent now is that days to cover is less than 2. The majority of shares owned by institutions and insiders how come they are not pulling the trigger. something we do not know I guess. I read last week on seek alpha that only few thousand share available for shorts so who and how millions are traded everyday. The avg vol was about 20 mil less than 6 months ago and now in 50s. It is possible your explanation about synthetic shorts as some of insiders may not want to sell it and to keep the voting rights this might be happening..God knows what's going on and no one seems to know including people here, Fool, Seecking alpha, other message boards..may be these are just shorts that go in and out daily, no more big hedge fund managers shorting it..oh well time will tell us. The product sale is going well and the only argument left is apps so BB better get fix app gap issue before USA launch otherwise they will take it to single digit again..
  21. Tom689's Avatar
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    #4696  

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    They've had absolutely insane volume like 223m on release day. No doubt tens of millions of shares are being passed around in day trades
  22. Komoto's Avatar
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    #4697  

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    Quote Originally Posted by BBNation View Post
    Let's take my recent experience with bes10 and z10. We ordered close to dozen z10s from BELL with data plan. We installed bes10 just to manage iOS, BB10 and Anroid phones and keeping best until BB release Service Pack to consolidate all in one. Let's take non-bbs out of this pix. We are assured by BELL consultant that NOC is still used for Z10 with BES10 and we can also use the traditional communication channel that goes thru BB network for all emails including ActiveSync or we can go straight just typical iOS devices. This option is avilable with MS exchage 2010 just like old OS did with MS exchange, fully integrated.
    Just to summarize this do you think BB is doing all this for free ? I do not think so. I am sure that BB is getting the cut of all z10s we got with data plan of $40/month so BB made close to $200 on the hardware and continue to make for next 2 years on the same phone. For consumers this may not be true but enterprises this can the fact and BB can still make tons of money. BB will also sell bb7 for another year so monthly will not disappear overnight.
    As you seem to have some experience with this can you explain to me something.
    If i go for the BES10 system, would i pay a monthly fee per phone (BB, Android, Iphone) that i have on my BES system?
    If this is the case how much is it, is it roughly equal to the current Blackberry dataplan?
    I am interested to know more about this particular business model works.
  23. Whitecaps's Avatar
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    #4698  

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    Stock still havent broken the support line
  24. _dimi_'s Avatar
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    #4699  

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    We need to go back to >18.32 quickly or the chart will look ugly..
  25. AlexejKir's Avatar
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    #4700  

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    Quote Originally Posted by Whitecaps View Post
    Stock still havent broken the support line
    agreed, knowing the support and resistance lines is major in this play.

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