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View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    640 64.52%
  • No

    352 35.48%
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  1. BThunderW's Avatar
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    #3726  

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    I think the stock found it's new bottom for a while. The only thing that would drive is down is some really bad news. Watching the stock last few days, every time there was a dip, buyers would quickly jump in and bring back the price. I think with some preliminary sales data this thing could pop. I expect the stock to consolidate at 13-14 for a while before making a move.

    Quote Originally Posted by BBNation View Post
    Do you think it would hit $16 to $18 within next few weeks..or you see it going back to 10.80 support.. I guess it can go up US launch annouce if US carriers starts launching in mid feb and UK/Canada initial sales shows good nums...If not, I see it going to 10.xx before it moves up..share your thoughts..
  2. _dimi_'s Avatar
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    #3727  

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    [QUOTE=BBNation;7924514]
    Quote Originally Posted by morganplus8 View Post
    Hello everyone! Time for an update here as (RIM -RIMM) BB is setting up for an exciting week.

    Here is the latest chart:

    Mogonplu8, Do you think it will hit $18 before hitting the support of 10.80. The volume of over 250 mil stocks on wed/thu was scary and feels like it is going to 10s. before it hits the high side. I guess some good news such as skype, instagram, licensing deal, US lauch date, good numbers from UK/Canada/UAE should take it up there..
    Didn't you tell everyone to NOT sell any shares during launch week?
  3. _dimi_'s Avatar
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    That was supposed to be for BBNation.. my bad
  4. cjcampbell's Avatar
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    #3729  

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    Quote Originally Posted by _dimi_ View Post
    That was supposed to be for BBNation.. my bad
    HAHA... I was just reading and was like HUH????
    _dimi_ likes this.
  5. randomroyalty's Avatar
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    #3730  

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    Quote Originally Posted by EvanRitch View Post
    I like the name change sorta. Apple is Apple so Blackberry should be Blackberry. I don't mind RIM at all. However as a BRAND it was a great idea
    Agreed. Considering they will be blowing $1B+ on marketing, this was the best time to change the name. Spending that kind of money pays off in brand equity and will add to the valuation.
  6. Sqoon's Avatar
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    #3731  

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    Quote Originally Posted by randomroyalty View Post
    Agreed. Considering they will be blowing $1B+ on marketing, this was the best time to change the name. Spending that kind of money pays off in brand equity and will add to the valuation.
    There is no way they will commit to $1 billion in advertising. Huge amount of money, an unfathomable amount of money in the advertising world. Think about all the advertising that Microsoft has been doing, do you think they have hit a billion? Not even close. Last I heard it was about $400 million and you can't turn on a TV without a mandatory startup ad about the surface.
    Even from a business side. Think about how much money that is. 1/3 of all the cash in their entire company to advertising and probably closer to all of it if you exclude foreign holdings, working capital, and required holding securities. How risky would that be?
  7. sentimentGX4's Avatar
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    #3732  

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    Quote Originally Posted by randall2580 View Post
    @Morganplus8 there are 2 technical formations on the chart you posted that worry me some.

    #1 Because of the impulsive action leading to and after January 22nd, you can see the gap left on the 22nd as an "exhaustion gap" usually the signal of the end of a bull run.

    #2 More worrisome is the gaps left on the way up Jan 11 high 13.595 and Jan 12 low 13.95) and from Jan 30 low 13.72 to Jan 31 high 13.35) is indicative of an "island reversal". These is a very worrisome formation on the daily chart and will get the attention of most technical traders as a stock in trouble.

    I have enjoyed reading your analysis and have chimed in from time to time in support of your read, but this time i am a little more cautious than you for the reasons stated above. The stock should be under pressure again next week as I read this chart today - thought some strength and a strong move and and a close above 13.72 and would take away completely my concerns. The stock starts Monday close enough to these trouble points to be able to take out the worry early on but I would be a little cautious if the start on Monday is again weaker might find fund and system traders (these computers we hear so much about) eager to press the technical weakness.
    Thanks so much for your technical input. I disagree with Morgan's technical analysis as well and liquidated my position at 17.86 a couple days before the launch using different technical indicators but coming to the same conclusion as yourself.

    At this point, the graph is showing a VERY clear head and shoulders reversal forming.
    Head and shoulders (chart pattern) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    I have insisted that a head and shoulders would form since the first peak. For those still long, sell at the next $14 peak and do not look back! Approaching the $14 resistance, look for weakening upward momentum to affirm the pattern. Good luck investors. You have been sufficiently warned.
  8. Nindia's Avatar
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    #3733  

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    I believe both of your analysis' have merit. Morgan is clearly pro-RIM and you two are against it. However, time will tell which way it will go as I personally believe that fundamentals will trump technicals once we have a good insight as to how well the Z10 has been selling.
  9. Superfly_FR's Avatar

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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #3734  

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    Quote Originally Posted by randomroyalty View Post
    Agreed. Considering they will be blowing $1B+ on marketing, this was the best time to change the name. Spending that kind of money pays off in brand equity and will add to the valuation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sqoon View Post
    There is no way they will commit to $1 billion in advertising.
    $1 Billion is the global launch commitment. Including advertising, marketing, launch events, training sessions, incentives and - I believe - initial stock build&send costs.
    Join my BBM Channel : C00035FA6
    "I speak English like a Spanish Cow"
    I'm a StockBerrian, proudly holding 50 150 250 400 550 1000 BlackBerry shares
  10. Superfly_FR's Avatar

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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #3735  

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    Quote Originally Posted by sentimentGX4 View Post
    I have insisted that a head and shoulders would form since the first peak. For those still long, sell at the next $14 peak and do not look back! Approaching the $14 resistance, look for weakening upward momentum to affirm the pattern. Good luck investors. You have been sufficiently warned.
    Well, I personnaly think that until BlackBerry is back in a "normal" situation, it's barely legit to apply any technical analysis.
    Any external event can ruin it in a snap. (These examples are very unlikely to happen =>)
    A global exploit touching android and/or apple ? We'll hit the sky.
    A security breach in BB10 ? We'll crash to the ground.
    (These will be the metrics we'll deal with in the newt few weeks =>)
    Successful launch in CAN and Europe ? Climb, babe, climb.
    Moderate launch ? stand still
    etc ...

    This said being long with a 2-3years view.
    Join my BBM Channel : C00035FA6
    "I speak English like a Spanish Cow"
    I'm a StockBerrian, proudly holding 50 150 250 400 550 1000 BlackBerry shares
  11. cgk
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    #3736  

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sqoon View Post
    There is no way they will commit to $1 billion in advertising. Huge amount of money, an unfathomable amount of money in the advertising world. Think about all the advertising that Microsoft has been doing, do you think they have hit a billion? Not even close. Last I heard it was about $400 million and you can't turn on a TV without a mandatory startup ad about the surface.
    Even from a business side. Think about how much money that is. 1/3 of all the cash in their entire company to advertising and probably closer to all of it if you exclude foreign holdings, working capital, and required holding securities. How risky would that be?
    He didn't saying advertising, he said marketing . Samsung is spending unfathomable amounts of money on marketing. Even in terms of advertising, Samsung spends more than Coke - last years it is estimated that they spend around $4 billion in advertising and then about the same about in sales promotions and then the same again in other marketing.
    dusdal likes this.
  12. cgk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Superfly_FR View Post
    Well, I personnaly think that until BlackBerry is back in a "normal" situation, it's barely legit to apply any technical analysis.
    Any external event can ruin it in a snap. (These examples are very unlikely to happen =>)
    A global exploit touching android and/or apple ? We'll hit the sky.
    A security breach in BB10 ? We'll crash to the ground.
    (These will be the metrics we'll deal with in the newt few weeks =>)
    Successful launch in CAN and Europe ? Climb, babe, climb.
    Moderate launch ? stand still
    etc ...

    This said being long with a 2-3years view.
    Is there really a two-three view if the launch is only a moderate success?
  13. Superfly_FR's Avatar

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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #3738  

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    Quote Originally Posted by cgk View Post
    Is there really a two-three view if the launch is only a moderate success?
    Yes: see how U.S sales (probably with updated OS) goes ...
    Join my BBM Channel : C00035FA6
    "I speak English like a Spanish Cow"
    I'm a StockBerrian, proudly holding 50 150 250 400 550 1000 BlackBerry shares
  14. randall2580's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nindia View Post
    I believe both of your analysis' have merit. Morgan is clearly pro-RIM and you two are against it. However, time will tell which way it will go as I personally believe that fundamentals will trump technicals once we have a good insight as to how well the Z10 has been selling.
    Nindia - regarding the comment "Morgan is clearly pro-RIM and you two are against it" is simply not true. Technical analysis has nothing to do with whether you promote a company or not. Good technical analysis has nothing to do with your view on anything, its about looking at a chart and drawing conclusions based on historical patterns. I simply commented this time that I did not agree, based on the charts I looked at - that RIM has a clear path upward. I allowed for one on a close above 13.72, but that said the stock has some work to do.

    In previous comments, I agreed with Morgan's calls for higher prices because of what I saw on the charts.

    To paraphrase a favorite movie, Technical analysis isn't personal, it's business.
    Nindia and morganplus8 like this.
  15. silversun10's Avatar
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    #3740  

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    Quote Originally Posted by randall2580 View Post
    Nindia - regarding the comment "Morgan is clearly pro-RIM and you two are against it" is simply not true. Technical analysis has nothing to do with whether you promote a company or not. Good technical analysis has nothing to do with your view on anything, its about looking at a chart and drawing conclusions based on historical patterns. I simply commented this time that I did not agree, based on the charts I looked at - that RIM has a clear path upward. I allowed for one on a close above 13.72, but that said the stock has some work to do.

    In previous comments, I agreed with Morgan's calls for higher prices because of what I saw on the charts.

    To paraphrase a favorite movie, Technical analysis isn't personal, it's business.
    to a certain extend tech analysis is like looking at the clouds, you see shapes in the clouds about what you were thinking already,
    and when it comes to your #2, there is no clear island, all the price has to do(as you indicated), is jump to 14
    and voila that gap is gone as well, so we will see what is next...
    Nindia and joe.miller like this.
  16. BBNation's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by _dimi_ View Post
    That was supposed to be for BBNation.. my bad
    That was for days before launch and to avoid panic button for fake sell out as it had happend before..read it again..))
  17. morganplus8's Avatar
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    #3742  

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    Quote Originally Posted by randall2580 View Post
    @Morganplus8 there are 2 technical formations on the chart you posted that worry me some.

    #1 Because of the impulsive action leading to and after January 22nd, you can see the gap left on the 22nd as an "exhaustion gap" usually the signal of the end of a bull run.

    #2 More worrisome is the gaps left on the way up Jan 11 high 13.595 and Jan 12 low 13.95) and from Jan 30 low 13.72 to Jan 31 high 13.35) is indicative of an "island reversal". These is a very worrisome formation on the daily chart and will get the attention of most technical traders as a stock in trouble.

    I have enjoyed reading your analysis and have chimed in from time to time in support of your read, but this time i am a little more cautious than you for the reasons stated above. The stock should be under pressure again next week as I read this chart today - thought some strength and a strong move and and a close above 13.72 and would take away completely my concerns. The stock starts Monday close enough to these trouble points to be able to take out the worry early on but I would be a little cautious if the start on Monday is again weaker might find fund and system traders (these computers we hear so much about) eager to press the technical weakness.
    Hi randall2580 !!

    Thanks for your comments here. You are right, there are plenty of additional factors that go into technical trading. My goal here is to apply some simple thoughts to the process to get everyone on the same page. This chart is a historical representation of where the stock has been, and it implies to some extent, where the stock can go, until additional factors change the rules of the game. If, on the basis of looking at this trading pattern, you can conclude that $ 25.00/shr in the short-term makes little sense, and that further, the likelihood of $ 6.00/shr is out of the cards, then we are getting somewhere. Based upon the data, we were "likely" to hit a new nominal high, at $ 18.00 plus, and assuming nothing earth shattering happens in the launch, drop back to support. I did mention that there is little support anywhere near its current price at that time. So now we are back down to the bottom of the channel, it is also at the 50-dma and RSI is at 44, historically we bounce off this level of support and begin a new rally from here. This time we broke below the uptrend line which is a great cause for concern than ever before. So what do we look at to help us determine where we go next? Do we look at the over 450 million shares traded, the formation of the trades of the past, like waterfall formations, H&S or +/- Volume, momentum etc.,??? There is that one factor, the short position, that everyone is attached to, it likely grew during the latest sell-off and worth considering too.

    At some point, members like you will begin to do some research and question the action of the stock, then we can take this discussion to a much higher level than present. I watch 2/3 minute charts, +/- volume and media sentiment, I also watch the general market to see if we can hold or rally from here too. Then there is the potential for additional news on this play that can trump all technical patterns. There are a number of variables that move the stock and one of them is the ability of the pros to take out sell-stops below support. They went hunting for sell-stops and got plenty of them this past week, this game gets a little more challenging when they step outside the normal trendlines for an hour to take stock away from weak hands.

    I'm always concerned about milestones being broken like the 50-dma, and to this, we have to look at what comes next. If we close below the 50-dma this week, maybe even on Monday, we can expect the stock to find support around RSI 30, that's normal, if it happens for reasons other than the stock itself, i.e., the general market drops a couple of 100 points, we can regain the trend quickly again. And so, just because the stock steps out of the channel, doesn't mean it is a confirmed trend change until the third day. Looking at tomorrow, BB will have news hitting the wire, it could be extremely positive, something like "sales of Z10 are huge", this is likely to drive short covering, not the shorts who are in it for months, but last weeks shorts, they will start a new trend.

    The point of the chart is to show everyone where traders are likely to sell, i.e., at $ 18.00/shr on the last run, and where to buy, i.e., likely at $ 13.00/shr this week. If you follow the chart you have made plenty of money catching the reversals so far, at some point it doesn't work though and as we set the bar higher, i.e. higher lows, we are setting ourselves up for a breakdown in the trend. I don't think this trend is over at $ 13.00/shr based upon many different indicators at this time. The best indicator being the fact that more and more analysts are jumping ship and tagging $ 19.00 plus as their next target. We hated them on the downside and we love them on the upside. As for whether I am a bull or a bear, I actually short more stock then I have ever bought in my lifetime. You make far more money trading stock down then you do up, its a simple reason for looking for weak trades to short, this isn't one of them. Best of luck, sorry about the rambling!!
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  18. m0de25's Avatar
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    #3743  

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    Here's my own professional analysis ...

    Putting money on BlackBerry is like walking into a casino and heading straight for the roulette table with a wad of cash. Us longs are betting on BLACK and the shorts are betting on RED... (Better odds than Peter Misek!)

    Last Wednesday, January 30 2013, the roulette wheel was spun and the ball landed on RED because of the botched presentation and botched US product availablity.

    If Thor and team learned how to present the product to the world properly with "laser focus", if the US was included in this first wave of availability, and if there was an ounce of surprise or wow factor at launch, everyone holding onto their shares would have looked like geniuses. Heck, the product engineers didn't properly tweak the camera algorithms on the Z10 camera (so that bloggists and reviewers had less things to pick on) and even that detail is causing some negativity!

    My point is, this is such a fine line that we are dancing on. Could still go either way, but if BlackBerry delivered the basics like they led us to believe, I would be holding my shares long with confidence. Now, I'm not so sure, frankly. One thing is sure, there are only a few spins left on this roulette wheel.
    Last edited by m0de25; 02-03-2013 at 03:27 PM.
    fedakd likes this.
  19. herol's Avatar
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    #3744  

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    Quote Originally Posted by chrysaurora View Post
    BES is still there.
    As for BIS - I think you are misunderstanding. The only thing that has changed is that you no longer need a 'BIS' data plan. But most services that were provided by BIS are still available. For eg: BBM, BB Protect, BlackBerry ID and so on. Emails can be synched just as well with ActiveSync/CalDAV protocol so that you no longer need to interface via BIS. But for service that require BIS, it is still there as BB NOC.

    Think about it, BlackBerry has allowed you to connect to BIS using WiFi for quite a few years now. Clearly, your device was able to connect to BlackBerry infrastructure via regular internet/data. Your WiFi was not a special "BIS WIFI". You were just un-necessarily forced to use a BIS data plan even though BlackBerry was perfectly capable of connecting to BB NOC without such data plan. I even tried this -- I switched on 'WiFi HotSpot' on my Android. Then I connected BlackBerry to Android's hotspot and BlackBerry connected to BIS just fine, synched emails, BBMs etc. Clearly, BIS specific data plan was no longer a must, but we were told to get that anyway.

    So, I, for one, am glad that BIS specific data plan is no longer mandatory. It's now much easier to insert a prepaid SIM card with normal data-plan when travelling to different countries (and I travel quite a bit). Previously, inserting a non BB data specifc sim card would cripple your BlackBerry. It'd reduce a BlackBerry to a feature phone. But now, you can utilize full BB experience with a regular data plan. I think that's just great for customers.

    So, to summarize, BIS specific data plans are gone but most services provided by BIS are still there. Email and Browsing no longer depends on BB NOC and that's a good thing. We won't see world-wide outage of email-service if BIS were to go down.
    Thank you for explanation, but don't you think that BlackBerry is losing its key differentiators: Push email, security, data compression. The worst think is that there is no official statement or article from BlackBerry. Just look how many threads where people are trying to understand what is happening with this. Nobody knows does we have push email or not. How is BlackBerry email system now if not better to at least different than the rivals?
    Even CrackBerry team is trying to clarify the situation but nobody is sure how exactly how exactly is working NOC with BB 10 and what are the benefits of current set up.
    Because if we are losing the benefits to own the best email/messaging platform on the market what will stop the people to use iPhone or Android with their similar messaging capabilities. The only difference will be OS and I don't think that this is not enough. You are saying that most of the services provided by BIS are there except email and browsing, what are these services?

    p.s. I am using BES with Google apps from 4 years.
  20. BBNation's Avatar
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    Even after US market share fall. US is 22% of BB's total pie. I think this is because of all goverment, banks, fortune 500 companies still holding on BB due to security requirements..remember goverments and big companies take ever to switch from one platform to another..wheather from bb to something else and something else to bb. If BlackBerry get this, launch in US asap and 50% of current users upgrade to bb10 we talking to millions of phones. BB10 is the only phone that supports BYOD out of the box.
    BB longs and instituional holders also need to take care of shorts to stop crazy manipluation eating us retailors.
    Here is one from Analyst ericjackson

    $RIMM market share by country: USA 22%, uk 11%, Saudi Arabia 7%, UAE 5%, Phillippines 4%, Canada 4%, France 4%, Spain 4% $BBRY
  21. herol's Avatar
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    #3746  

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    I am thinking to buy more shares on Monday. It seems that after all the sales are very good in UK, Hopefully in Canada also. I think that they will be good in India many people love BlackBerry there.
    So I think that these are the news that will return the interest of the investors. Also I am sure that Q10 will be hit.
  22. jwdogfst's Avatar
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    I know the market is irrational, but is it realistic to see Blackberry drop below $10 in a few weeks based on heads and shoulders analysis?
  23. Sqoon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwdogfst View Post
    I know the market is irrational, but is it realistic to see Blackberry drop below $10 in a few weeks based on heads and shoulders analysis?
    I would be a buyer at $10, I would at $12 actually.
  24. randall2580's Avatar
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    #3749  

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    @Morgan thank you for your considered follow up which I don't necessarily disagree with in a longer based view. @silversun I don't disagree necessarily with you either. Good technical traders try to ignore their biases and it's a big reason some have taken it away from humans and transferred decisions to computers. I try to take what the charts give me, but I admit it's not always possible, especially if I am holding a position.

    FYI I generally don't trade individual stocks so I have no agenda here. An island is an island until it isn't. I said in my comment it would be easy to take that off he table but you have to beware of a weaker Monday open that might bring some more longs to take some money off the table. RIMM/BBRY has had a nice run from lows to highs and a correction as we are seeing was overdue. I would look to buy RIMM at a lower level than current from what I see on the chart.

    As I have said to @Superfly and @Morganplus8 I have enjoyed the chance for a healthy discussion and exchange of ideas for fun and profit :-). A thread that has gone on as long as this one with some really interesting discussion is a credit to all who have contributed, that's not always the case here..

    In the end buyers and sellers make markets that's what makes trading fun (most of the time). I think early trading on Monday will be important in the short term.
  25. Tinomane's Avatar
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    Just saw a Bell Z10 commercial! They're finally starting to pump out the ads.

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