[Zarpan]

"Contacts at Rogers" is kind of vague......

I also had "contacts at Rogers" that don't know what BB10 is.

Can't wait to see preorder numbers. If they're > 1-2 million within Q4. BBRY will rally!

True, although Kevin and Peter Misek probably have contacts that have knowledge and access to solid information.

[Zarpan]

This is most certainly wrong information. Koodo is selling device (without contract) for $550. ASP ought to be $400 or so.
Pre-orders: my sources tell me that total pre-orders from ALL big 3 combined stand at < 10,000. Not hundreds of thousands.

It seems like Peter Misek/Jefferies peddle false information to justify ratings. He peddled false information when he was bearish on RIM, and now he is peddling false information to prop up RIM as he is now bullish.

I do think the ASP is going to be much closer to $600 than $400. During the Apple - Samsung court case, there was some information revealed in court filings about the revenues generated by various Samsung phones in the US, including the Samsung Galaxy S II. I believe the ASP for that was around $480-$490 when it first came out, while it retailed for $549 at one of the major carriers (I think AT&T). The BlackBerry Z10 is retailing for $599 at AT&T, so a similar margin would imply that US ASP would be around $530 or so. Non-US pricing nearly always tends to be higher, which would push it towards the $600 mark, especially with the majority of sales likely to come outside of the US.

[drummer_god]

My fiancee and i just came back from the mall.
We went to pre-order her a Z10 from bell.
There was quite a buzz about blackberry- one customer was walking out as i went in and i heard him say to his wife, "lets see if rogers has the new blackberry". I heard a customer ask a rep about it, and the rep replied that their rep who did the training said it's the best phone he's seen. Then the rep commented on the Z10 fetching thousands of dollars on ebay.
I asked, "has there been a lot of interest in the BB10?" a different rep said they've been getting people asking about it all day.

I then made my way to the rogers store and was passed by someone on a phone and i could her her ask the person she was talking with if they had seen any of the blackberry that just launched.

As i walked to the rogers store, i passed a telus, which had a full window display for the Z10.

When i got to rogers, the rep said they had the Z10 and accessories in the back but cannot comment on pricing of accessories until tuesday. She said she had lots, since many were sold by pre-order.

[chrysaurora]

I do think the ASP is going to be much closer to $600 than $400. During the Apple - Samsung court case, there was some information revealed in court filings about the revenues generated by various Samsung phones in the US, including the Samsung Galaxy S II. I believe the ASP for that was around $480-$490 when it first came out, while it retailed for $549 at one of the major carriers (I think AT&T). The BlackBerry Z10 is retailing for $599 at AT&T, so a similar margin would imply that US ASP would be around $530 or so. Non-US pricing nearly always tends to be higher, which would push it towards the $600 mark, especially with the majority of sales likely to come outside of the US.

ASP has to be less than retail price. Nobody is going to sell it at loss. If anything, bulk buyers (carriers) are going to get a discount for ordering in volumes and investing their own marketing dollars for pushing BB 10. If Koodo (brand of TELUS) can sell BlackBerry 10 for $549, it follows that ASP is < $549.

As I said earlier, and I'd re-iterate it here, my opinion is that Peter Misek/Jefferies peddle false information to justify ratings. He peddled false information when he was bearish on RIM, and now he is peddling false information to prop up RIM as he is now bullish. Sure, Peter has "contacts" at carriers but it doesn't mean he can't lie or manipulate or withhold information he gets from his contacts. He was clearly peddling false information to beat up RIM when he was bearish on it.

[rocdynasty]

ASP has to be less than retail price. Nobody is going to sell it at loss. If anything, bulk buyers (carriers) are going to get a discount for ordering in volumes and investing their own marketing dollars for pushing BB 10. If Koodo (brand of TELUS) can sell BlackBerry 10 for $549, it follows that ASP is < $549.

As I said earlier, and I'd re-iterate it here, my opinion is that Peter Misek/Jefferies peddle false information to justify ratings. He peddled false information when he was bearish on RIM, and now he is peddling false information to prop up RIM as he is now bullish. Sure, Peter has "contacts" at carriers but it doesn't mean he can't lie or manipulate or withhold information he gets from his contacts. He was clearly peddling false information to beat up RIM when he was bearish on it.

i hear your point. but it doesnt seem like he would just throw out numbers. if you think about, he is saying >100kin orders , the forum is saying 10k, thats 10x difference

[Zarpan]

ASP has to be less than retail price. Nobody is going to sell it at loss. If anything, bulk buyers (carriers) are going to get a discount for ordering in volumes and investing their own marketing dollars for pushing BB 10. If Koodo (brand of TELUS) can sell BlackBerry 10 for $549, it follows that ASP is < $549.

As I said earlier, and I'd re-iterate it here, my opinion is that Peter Misek/Jefferies peddle false information to justify ratings. He peddled false information when he was bearish on RIM, and now he is peddling false information to prop up RIM as he is now bullish. Sure, Peter has "contacts" at carriers but it doesn't mean he can't lie or manipulate or withhold information he gets from his contacts. He was clearly peddling false information to beat up RIM when he was bearish on it.

No, it doesn't mean that ASP is necessarily under $549. Koodo would have calculated the expected lifetime value of a customer who purchases it off contract and factored in the service margins accordingly.

For example, RIM currently sells the BB7 devices at a loss. I think they lose about $25-$30 per BB7 handset sold. However, with service revenues of say $3-4 per month, they figure that they will make a profit over the lifetime of the customer.

[duckJAI]

Good point.

I did just reserve white Z10 for my girlfriend this morning, and it started above 100 and is now position #62.

This point is interesting.

I reserved with Rogers a couple of weeks ago where I was around 2,XXX and now I'm at 6XX.

I'm in Canada, Ontario. So I think the number we are seeing is regional or maybeeeee, even city?

[StormieTwo]

OK, so we ended the day in the green, that's good. We seem to be seeing support at $13/share, that's good. I hope M8 is up and recovering nicely and has had a chance to review the weeks comments.
Happy to go long with Blackberry. Now, where do I get a Z10 in white for the wife....?

[m0de25]

leafs123

Exactly and that's my fear. Long term I think RIM needs to be an OS company and leave the hardware to someone else. Build a strong ecosystem and OEM will make phones for you.

(personal bet) BlackBerry will nowhere put a Chinese company in their core business.
But, they're welcome as clients.

We're all agreeing

Actually, I've been thinking a lot about this... as much as I would like to see underdog BlackBerry win the hearts and minds of the word on its own -with it's phones and OS integration- I think all of us should be praying that a company like Lenovo gets into bed with them. Of course, I'd prefer Sony or Samsung, but hey.

The obvious benefit would be the deeper pockets and firmer hardware development for the phones, but the broader benefit would be the willingness for app developers to port over. Right now, what's scaring me about the big name gaming companies supporting BB10... just how many Z10 or Q10 owners are going to actually download these fancy gaming titles to use on their phones???... because, that's all BB10 is at the moment. A phone. Blackberry has no real presence in the tablet arena where most of these titles can be enjoyed to their fullest.

Im the furthest thing from a gamer, but they are needed in BB world. But it's obviously not just games... other useful app-tools, such as music interface apps, are very restrictive on a small phone. The download count for these big games and apps can be scary bad, I'm afraid, if people choose to use BB as a communication device, then download the games on their non BB tablets. The one game that I actually play on the PlayBook is "Great Little War Game" but if I didn't own a PlayBook, there's no way in heck I'd download it to be used on a Z10 screen. So, if I'm right, these developers will only see PlayBook numbers which will put us in big, big trouble.

So, bring on Lenovo, let BlackBerry retain control of security and let's rock and roll this thing!

[Shanerredflag]

^^agree^^...a hardware partner would be a smart move...especially with the population and manufacturing (inexpensive) they could bring...if done rite could be huge.

[m0de25]

NASDAQ finished at 7.5M volume... is that unusually low for the day? Is there anything to read into that?

[drummer_god]

Investors are probably taking the 'wait-and-see' approach with BBRY.

They want to see if the Z10 gains some traction in the UK and Canada and others before feeling comfortable enough to re-invest their money.

Since we hit $12.17 on the TSX yesterday, Goldman sachs gave BBRY an endorsement, and the bleeding stopped and we rose up to $12.92.
Today, there were reports of UK sellouts and big ebay bid prices. The stock got as high was $13.50.

The way i see it, we will gain investor confidence and money in the weeks to come.
Now, do your part; buy a phone if you can, and spread the word via social media. Build the buzz. Post the super-bowl ad on your facebook page, mention the Z10's features to friends, etc.

If the good news keeps rolling in, i predict $14 by next friday and $16 the friday after.

[svelt]

Investors are probably taking the 'wait-and-see' approach with BBRY.

They want to see if the Z10 gains some traction in the UK and Canada and others before feeling comfortable enough to re-invest their money.

Since we hit $12.17 on the TSX yesterday, Goldman sachs gave BBRY an endorsement, and the bleeding stopped and we rose up to $12.92.
Today, there were reports of UK sellouts and big ebay bid prices. The stock got as high was $13.50.

The way i see it, we will gain investor confidence and money in the weeks to come.
Now, do your part; buy a phone if you can, and spread the word via social media. Build the buzz. Post the super-bowl ad on your facebook page, mention the Z10's features to friends, etc.

If the good news keeps rolling in, i predict $14 by next friday and $16 the friday after.

Doing my part already. I don't have the highest Klout score but I've been tweeting about it and posting updates on Facebook on it, as well as commenting on blogs. This is a company I want to succeed for both my stock portfolio and my own personal interests as a long time die-hard BB user.

[Superfly_FR]

If Koodo (brand of TELUS) can sell BlackBerry 10 for $549, it follows that ASP is < $549.

I'm not sure about that, it can be subsidized either by RIM (volume engagement counterpart ?) or an incentive action to gain consumers (a -say- $50 cost to acquire a consumer is really cheap).
Truth may be in the middle of that ... herd to tell, we have to monitor the average RP when everybody join the dance (there might be also a temporary "discount" as a "first in" reward).
All I can say is that the information I got a month ago (�450 = $580 ASP) was really first hand.

[Tinomane]

In another thread someone said bell is halting pre-orders bc of demand and they had to take the white z10 off the website bc they didn't have anymore.

[Superfly_FR]

Right now, what's scaring me about the big name gaming companies supporting BB10... just how many Z10 or Q10 owners are going to actually download these fancy gaming titles to use on their phones???... because, that's all BB10 is at the moment. A phone. Blackberry has no real presence in the tablet arena where most of these titles can be enjoyed to their fullest.

Suggests me a question about apps licence : if you want the same app on Z10 and PB (once it's BB10) do you pay twice ? I think we might have a response to this when we'll know officially how BBID will be handled on both devices (read : share unique BBM account across same owner BB10 devices). If you have only one license to pay for, them this might eventually become an advantage ... but I believe devs wouldn't be very happy of that ...

[Marc_Paradise]

As a dev, I'd be happy with that.

1. Having to buy things twice pisses people off, and most will opt not to do it
2. Pissed off customers aren't likely to buy from me again.
3. Conversely, happy customers are repeat customers.

[plasmid_boy]

Now, do your part; buy a phone if you can, and spread the word via social media. Build the buzz. Post the super-bowl ad on your facebook page, mention the Z10's features to friends, etc.

I agree. Although I am using an iPhone right now, I have bought RIMM/BB shares and been telling friends and colleagues about BB10 (some of them are getting annoyed by it). :P
I will buy a Z10 as soon as it's available (not just for supporting BlackBerry - it's a company so support is conditional - but mainly because I really like the phone).

[Shanerredflag]

I'm not sure about that, it can be subsidized either by RIM (volume engagement counterpart ?) or an incentive action to gain consumers (a -say- $50 cost to acquire a consumer is really cheap).
Truth may be in the middle of that ... herd to tell, we have to monitor the average RP when everybody join the dance (there might be also a temporary "discount" as a "first in" reward).
All I can say is that the information I got a month ago (€450 = $580 ASP) was really first hand.

KooDo explained...the cost is 550.00 but only comes with a charger so you don't get some items...and you must wait for them to ship as they do not stock...kinda like drop shipping to save costs. Then you actually pay a 150.00 dollar "Tab" on top of the 400.00 up front cost (totals 550.00)...then the package costs too....

Get nothing for nothing...personally I'm going with the Bell 650.00 no contract paid in full model and just switching my 4s plan onto BB and got a 50.00 dollar credit through customer retention department applied to my account...so really it's 600.00 out of pocket. FYI...Galaxy Note 1 and 2 are 729.00, S3 is 649.00 sand they wont advertise the i5 ptrice without contract cuz they don't want to scare people...so I think they nailed the price point well.


Here is KooDo's link:

https://shop.koodomobile.com/koodo-c...STL1003BK.html

[cjcampbell]

KooDo explained...the cost is 550.00 but only comes with a charger so you don't get some items...and you must wait for them to ship as they do not stock...kinda like drop shipping to save costs. Then you actually pay a 150.00 dollar "Tab" on top of the 400.00 up front cost (totals 550.00)...then the package costs too....

Get nothing for nothing...personally I'm going with the Bell 650.00 no contract paid in full model and just switching my 4s plan onto BB and got a 50.00 dollar credit through customer retention department applied to my account...so really it's 600.00 out of pocket. FYI...Galaxy Note 1 and 2 are 729.00, S3 is 649.00 sand they wont advertise the i5 ptrice without contract cuz they don't want to scare people...so I think they nailed the price point well.


Here is KooDo's link:

https://shop.koodomobile.com/koodo-c...STL1003BK.html

Just to add to the price point, iPhone's at Rogers are 599, 799, 899, for 16.32.64 models. I agree... the Z10 was priced competatively and accordingly.

[bk1022]

Price will drop significantly in a few months like any other phone. The US delay is reported to be because of disagreement on pricing. My guess is that bbry plans on dropping wholesale prices concurrent with the US launch.

Anyway, I am very concerned about why RIM changed it's name to BlackBerry. It suggests to me that they plan a material reorg.

[EvanRitch]

I like the name change sorta. Apple is Apple so Blackberry should be Blackberry. I don't mind RIM at all. However as a BRAND it was a great idea

[Andrew4life]

I like the name change sorta. Apple is Apple so Blackberry should be Blackberry. I don't mind RIM at all. However as a BRAND it was a great idea

Well, actually it was Apple's iPhone, and RIM's BlackBerry.
Now it's Apple's iPhone and BlackBerry's BlackBerry.

IMO, it's actually kind of weird. Not really liking the name change.
But at least now when I do trend searches on twitter for #BlackBerry I won't get pron like I do when I search for #RIM

[drummer_god]

Well, actually it was Apple's iPhone, and RIM's BlackBerry.
Now it's Apple's iPhone and BlackBerry's BlackBerry.

it's actually, BlackBerry's Z10 or Q10

[cjcampbell]

it's actually, BlackBerry's Z10 or Q10

This... You see Apple's famous logo on every apple product, which is branding. You never saw an RIM logo on a BlackBerry. Now the brand is one, and it makes more sense.