[Tinomane]

I get the funny feeling shorts are going to increase their shipment estimates last minute before earnings, but not raise their price price targets. That's how mental they are.

[chrysaurora]

If we can get back to $20B in revs, we'll proably get a market cap that is pretty close to that. With no debt, we can add on that cash/equivs to that number. So, $22B. About 500 million shares so we should be able to get to $45/share quite easily. now, if we get a short squeeze ...... Hrrrmmmmmm retirement!

Not sure if we'll get to $22B this year. I think we are looking at $17B in revenue this year including doubling of cash reserve (to approx $5B).


Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

[abouthsu]

It sounds like the $7500 is related to carrier service fees, database/IT infrastructure, and everything else. Not necessarily fees paid to BlackBerry.

Food for thought, blackberry need the service providers and if the margin of profit to the provider is higher than Samsung or apple, then wouldn't the provider be pushing harder to sell blackberry units than other smartphone. ;-)

[Superfly_FR]

Naaa...

Too busy curing cancer and writing up a unified field theory.

Sending positive vibes for both.

Posted via CB10

[Zarpan]

10M devices shipped will be a very good quarter with a very healthy increase from the previous quarter. But I think that is the best case scenario so don't be disappointed if they don't hit it.

I'm modelling 3-4M Z10, 1-2M Q10, and 4M BBOS phones for a total of 8-10M devices. I might have undershot on the BBOS devices but they are quite irrelevant anyway due to their near 0 margin, but I'm pretty confident about the 4-6M BB10 estimate based on their production rate (2-2.5M/month) and the extra inventory they would hold on hand while in the midst of launching in other countries.

I think that sounds about right to me. Maybe a slightly heavier Z10 weighting in the BB10 mix due to the Q10 having to compete with the Z10 during its launch, giving two good options to users who weren't specifically waiting for the keyboard. Pretty confident about the 4-6 million range for BB10 devices too.

Sell-through of BBOS devices was around 7.2 million last quarter. Seasonality would mean that number should be 10-15% lower this quarter - so 6.2 million would be an equivalent. If BB10 sell-through was 4.5 million, we're probably looking at around 2.7 million units going to existing BlackBerry customers. Some of those customers would have defected without BB10, but maybe 50%? would have bought a BBOS device before. So that would bring it down to about 4.8 million. Factor in a bit of extra market share loss for BBOS due to cheap Android phones and such - I came up with 4 to 4.5 million BBOS devices sold, with shipments being around the same this time.

[Superfly_FR]

LOL, I love the before E.R weeks. Each and every one goes for his forcast from death to glory
So, just fill-in the "x" and you'll get the picture of what we might hear


1. The restructuring is now over, all our services and supply chains are operational at 100%. Annual savings worth xB USD
2. The BB10 launch plan is on track, we've hit and succeed (over our expectations) every passing points. Even with Q10 late to US market, sales of Z10 (with strong attraction up to 55% from other brands) and Q10 (with huge success wherever it's available, notably in enterprises) are strong and stable. And the figures are : xxmillions Z, xxmillion Q, xxmillion PlayBook and xxmillion legacy devices. Q5 launch is very expected in several world area, from UK to emerging countries with aggressive pricing; current feedbacks are very positive.
3. We're back to comfortable gross margins on the hardware, especially in the BB10 line. BlackBerry World is performing well, with over xxxK apps now (my bet : 150), big names in the game and a nice (unexpected ?) performance of music sales up to xx% (20 ?) of overall BBW revenues.
4. BES10 is gaining attraction with over xxxx new installations (x% addition to 12K already known). MDM is leading non BES users to our solution.With these additional iOs and Android CAL and new BES installations, we've forecast or potential BES service revenues to xxxmillions by the end of the year.
5. Brand recognition is back to strong, as we can see with our social networks (FB up x%, TW up x%) and BBM going cross-platform have drained massive subscription to our BBM Channels beta testing program ( xxxxx subscribers - xxxx channels created).
6. Measurement of BB OSes usage worldwide have grown xx % and our customer base is now xx millions
7. EPS is now positive (x.x $ /shr) and - now that we are ready - we expect the stock price to reflect the reality of our enterprise, in the xx - xx range (my take : 20 -30). We currently have xbillion $ in cash, despite all the investments that have been done these 24 last months.
8. Our QNX-BB10 plans are on track too with great success in the automotive industry. Mercedes is a living example of the future of M2M QNX-BB10 connected systems. We forecast xxx million QNX-BB10 powered devices by the end of the year.

That's all, ladies and gentlemen. We are still 100% involved to stick to the plan with a stable board of directors and greatly confident in the near and far future.

Questions ?

[greggebhardt]

Sorry but I look at the last ER to predict what will happen on this upcoming ER. While I think the stock will increase, the bears will swoop in and gorge themselves on the profits. In the end I fear we will be left in the same state as before the ER.

[Charles Martin1]

I get the funny feeling shorts are going to increase their shipment estimates last minute before earnings, but not raise their price price targets. That's how mental they are.

They did it the last time.

[Charles Martin1]

The first trade is green.

[Charles Martin1]

Sorry but I look at the last ER to predict what will happen on this upcoming ER. While I think the stock will increase, the bears will swoop in and gorge themselves on the profits. In the end I fear we will be left in the same state as before the ER.

If there isn't any improvement in the number of supporters and we don't see any shorts change their outlook it will definitely remain where it is. I just hope that the performance is ramping up enough.

[Charles Martin1]

Does anyone expect that we'll get some good news before the ER?

This week I am hopeful that we hear about a US date for the Q10 release, some major companies upgrading to the Q10 and BES, and perhaps a solid leak from a good source about performance.

[lcjr]

Good morning gang, glad to see the early birds at it already. I'm not placing any faith in early news before the ER, at least not substantial news. Maybe we hear something from the DoD, but my buddies in the IT field haven't heard anything new as of late. I'm thinking BB wants to slam it in on the ER and any substantial news before or leaks will take away from it. Just my thoughts on this beautiful morning.

[Charles Martin1]

I thought it was an analyst that said 2 million based on supply chain checks. Then BBRY said they increased production twice. Or it might have been BBRY once and an analyst again. Or all analyst comments.

Point is, we should really track down who said what.

Thor said 2 million (perhaps January) and has since, on two separate occasions, said they had ramped up production.

[Charles Martin1]

Good morning gang, glad to see the early birds at it already. I'm not placing any faith in early news before the ER, at least not substantial news. Maybe we hear something from the DoD, but my buddies in the IT field haven't heard anything new as of late. I'm thinking BB wants to slam it in on the ER and any substantial news before or leaks will take away from it. Just my thoughts on this beautiful morning.

Good morning lcjr! Beautiful skies here in Nova Scotia. I'm hopeful that things stay that way.

I'm trying to be more positive this week but thinking if nothing, we're sailing further south.

I hope that things are going well for you and your family.

[lcjr]

Sorry but I look at the last ER to predict what will happen on this upcoming ER. While I think the stock will increase, the bears will swoop in and gorge themselves on the profits. In the end I fear we will be left in the same state as before the ER.

Perhaps this ER will open the eyes of those who thought BB was doomed still. I'm hoping for an increase in SP, but will settle for people being more receptive and that will increase business which will impact the Sep ER. No way to really tell yet, we're still too far out really.

[lcjr]

Good morning lcjr! Beautiful skies here in Nova Scotia. I'm hopeful that things stay that way.

I'm trying to be more positive this week but thinking if nothing, we're sailing further south.

I hope that things are going well for you and your family.

Thanks Charles. The funeral is this afternoon followed by a huge dinner with the entire family and friends (200+). We'll stay a few more days so my wife can see everyone and then head back to the USA on Saturday. Been reading a lot on investing now that I have some time and have already learned a great deal. You guys have a fantastic day and send me a message if we shoot up to $20 today! Haha.

[Komoto]

Not about smashing this ER out of the park.

As long as they are on track I will be happy. September will most likely be the ER. I guess it depends on how many of the shorts extrapolate figures to next ER and get out now.

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

Not about smashing this ER out of the park.

As long as they are on track I will be happy. September will most likely be the ER. I guess it depends on how many of the shorts extrapolate figures to next ER and get out now.

Posted via CB10

Yep, I've changed my opinion on things and am now looking to Sep for a more true picture and then Dec for more. I'll just keep adding in as I can until then.

[Charles Martin1]

If this month carries out like April, we're just about ready for a bear raid. With the Q10 release date expected soon for the US and a likely list of companies and government operation sign ups to follow, the short dogs likely see this week as the one to attack hard.

I'm thinking Wednesday or Thursday, after another day or two of news drought.

[CDM76]

The first trade is green.

That's how it started yesterday on TSX but didn't help

Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

Not about smashing this ER out of the park.

As long as they are on track I will be happy. September will most likely be the ER. I guess it depends on how many of the shorts extrapolate figures to next ER and get out now.

Posted via CB10

Yeah. I just want to see the seeds of doubt start to disappear. A solid performance is expected at this stage and for me solid means, 10 million + devices, definitely in the black, and more cash.

[Charles Martin1]

That's how it started yesterday on TSX but didn't help

Posted via CB10

Yeah, slow day for sure. I'm hoping but not expecting anything different this week. A worst case is something in the $13s. I'll leave it to M+8 to give us his outlook on upside.

[Thunderbuck]

Yeah. I just want to see the seeds of doubt start to disappear. A solid performance is expected at this stage and for me solid means, 10 million + devices, definitely in the black, and more cash.

As I've said elsewhere, this is a marathon, not a sprint. Some days I just marvel that BB is still in business after all the crap they've put themselves through. Thorsten has said that these launches have been the most successful in the company history, though it's anyone's guess what that actually means.

Superfly_ER made some good points. I'm cynical enough to not buy the entire picture, but between the cost-cutting, the fairly strong Q10 interest, and the BES10 adoption I think there are some really good signals out there. I'm not expecting a huge jump in BB stock this time, but I do think this will be one more brick in the foundation.

[Superfly_FR]

Superfly_ER

Do you mean I'm Superflying E.R ?
(thx BTW, out of button already)

I'm not expecting a huge jump in BB stock this time, but I do think this will be one more brick in the foundation.

^^ THIS, exactly.

[greggebhardt]

Does anyone expect that we'll get some good news before the ER?

This week I am hopeful that we hear about a US date for the Q10 release, some major companies upgrading to the Q10 and BES, and perhaps a solid leak from a good source about performance.

A hard date from the major carriers will be a plus for sure. I can not believe that a date has not been announced. Maybe they are hold off for the ER to get the biggest BANG!