@Chris
Thanks for this insightful comments.
I'm a little balanced here and confused with numbers.
But my thoughts are the following :
1/ RIM is on a "back to top" move. Not "survive". This means that if they succeed - say - take about 15-20% of the consumers market with profitable devices, this will likely fill the revenue hole. Also, and I've not read about it yet, we have to consider the frequency of devices renewal. I believe current frequency is far lower (I mean users keep they BB longer than other brands), for three reasons : The quality of the devices (that can last longer), the lack of real innovation and - as a result - the very common "I hold two devices" situation, where having the latest BB device is nowhere useful. With the offering of new, appealing and up to date devices, a shorter renew period is very likely to append.
2/ Users will decide whether or not they want to rely on BIS for "extra services". My hope is that BBM will be the first (and maybe apart) stack of theses. In that case, emerging countries will not be the last to buy this stack ... better the first. Adding the -rumored- video feature will enforce that both for emerging and mature countries.
3/ The development of BB10 and middle end (BIS) for con/prosumers also has a cost (and I believe a massive one). We might have to consider that in their strategy, with a
rapid growth (in my scenario above 3X to 5X, depending on areas), the specialization of the NOC (services cut in stacks, BBM being #1) will lower hardware/network investments costs, so that the - real - balance may not be that much than 1billon if we include this "no need to invest" point.
4/ We don't know yet about future services attached to BB10. At the presentation we has in Paris two days ago, I've been asking about the cloud. "Cant comment on this, but look at the screen"; on the screen: Box + DropBox icons. me: "will there be more ?" the speaker : can't comment on this" ... with a smile and shining eyes. How would they monetize this ? I don't know. but I believe they won't offer it for free.
5/ I use for several months now the MS Office365 cloud solution (with - free - BB Enterprises Cloud Services, meaning free BES-like services) but I can't believe MS is not contributing to this, on a CAL basis. There also, RIM had no clear communication and I believe we'll hear about it the 30th.
You know I'm enthusiastic - and somehow over-optimistic - about RIM's future, so I may paint it all pink or sugarcoat it too much. But I can't believe they have not focused on the services revenue point, while they knew a long time ago they have to deal with it.
As a conclusion, I tend to believe that Thorsten has voluntary not unveiled very important parts of the plan, as current stock valuation is not their problem right now (means almost nothing until BB10 launch, good or bad) and that we'll ear about it the 30th.
In the meantime, should the stock go bellow my avg $10.5, I'll buy as much as my free and available cash can (never more than 15% of my available cash - this is not an advice to anyone, just what I'm going to do - I'm not an expert, etc.).
P.S: I know it's not in your habits to comment in forums, but I'll copy/paste this in the "I support RIM and I buy Shares" news and rumors thread. May be more comfortable to discuss about it.