[morganplus8]

Morgan, any insights this evening?

Sorry, I've been busy lately, here is the chart and some explanation:



Not a pretty day at all, we closed near the lows of the day and below the 50-dma as well. The trend is negative at the moment and a trend change needs to be established by staying below this mark for a couple of trading sessions. If we stay below the 50-dma for the next two trading sessions, and make a new low at any time, we are likely to churn here for a couple of weeks. I don't see much downside here, rather, I see us popping back up above the 50-dma soon. I took the lows, panic lows that is, as my new lower support line. These lows were made when the stock was under huge pressure, and each time we bounced off those circled blue lows. When you join all of those extreme lows together you end up with what might be the final lower support line for the channel. Today we didn't drop low enough to touch that line again.

While the trade is becoming more bearish, it is being done on much lighter volume meaning that the bulls are killing time while they wait for news. We can easily pop above the 50-dma and make a move to regain that 5-dma again, just like today when we rapidly popped up to try and break above the 5-dma and failed, we could easily rally up again and break through it on Thursday. I still think the trade is intact and this will happen. As scary as it looks, I think we are flattening out the steep uptrend line to a more manageable rate of climb. We were at $ 2.00/shr per month and that can't continue forever. We need time to wait for the US launch here and that is way the programmed trading is flattening out here. Look for the open to be neutral, we might go negative to test this new longer term uptrend line, but in the end, I think we will regroup and go higher soon.

On Thursday, the 5-dma will open up at $ 14.20/shr, the downtrend line is close to $ 14.10/shr, that's our resistance, the support comes in at $ 13.35/shr as mentioned on this board, this is an extreme pullback, and, we should trade within this range and mount another attempt at turning this stock higher here. This revised uptrend line is looking like it might be what the traders need to get us to mid-March. The line is clean and follows the 50-dma perfectly here, either way, it will be resolved this week. Note that the RSI is looking like it has based out just like it did prior to a major run up in the first week of January. All of this still projects us to $ 21.00/shr here, nothing has changed except our nerves! GL.

[Kid Vibe]

Axiom Telecom, BlackBerry�s official resellers in the UAE, had earlier announced that the new BlackBerry Z10 is accounting for almost 60 per cent of all handset sales across its UAE stores since being available on February 10.

�The UAE�s response to the Z10 has been truly remarkable, and we are set for huge, record-breaking sales,� said Faisal Al Bannai, CEO, Axiom Telecom.

�We knew that the UAE is one of most enthusiastic BlackBerry markets in the world, so we planned well ahead to ensure we were ready to cope with customer demand. The strategy has paid off, and we are proud to say that there are still plenty of stocks across all of Axiom�s UAE stores."

Is limited supply hampering BlackBerry Z10 sales in the UAE? - Emirates 24/7

BlackBerry Z10 to be unveiled in Italy, Germany | FP Tech Desk | Financial Post

It's hard not to keep your eye on the stock, especially if you are in for the long run... It's so volatile though, how can you not? Hopefully some of this good news will push it up.

I also remind myself that it's not just the mobile industry BB is in, but due to their OS they are slowly diversifying their products into the automobile industry as well... If this OS catches on, things could look really, really good.

[Zarpan]

Oh, that's very impressive. We can extrapolate some reasonably well calculated actual numbers from this - which could mean that they have sold over 30,000 Z10 units with Axiom alone in the UAE so far, and maybe as high as 60,000 units. Total UAE sales could range from about 40,000 units to 80,000 units.

Details:

The UAE sells around 2.4 million smartphones per year now.

Axiom claims a 70% market share in the UAE. So 1.68 million smartphones per year = 4600 per day.

60% of that is 2760 per day. Times 11 days = about 30,000 units.

That assumes that the Z10 cannibalized their existing handset sales. If it was incremental to existing sales, the sales could be as much as 60,000 units.

Since Axiom has 70% market share, multiplying these numbers by 1.4 would give an estimate of overall UAE sales assuming similar performance at other retailers.

Axiom Telecom, BlackBerry’s official resellers in the UAE, had earlier announced that the new BlackBerry Z10 is accounting for almost 60 per cent of all handset sales across its UAE stores since being available on February 10.

“The UAE’s response to the Z10 has been truly remarkable, and we are set for huge, record-breaking sales,” said Faisal Al Bannai, CEO, Axiom Telecom.

“We knew that the UAE is one of most enthusiastic BlackBerry markets in the world, so we planned well ahead to ensure we were ready to cope with customer demand. The strategy has paid off, and we are proud to say that there are still plenty of stocks across all of Axiom’s UAE stores."

Is limited supply hampering BlackBerry Z10 sales in the UAE? - Emirates 24/7

BlackBerry Z10 to be unveiled in Italy, Germany | FP Tech Desk | Financial Post

It's hard not to keep your eye on the stock, especially if you are in for the long run... It's so volatile though, how can you not? Hopefully some of this good news will push it up.

I also remind myself that it's not just the mobile industry BB is in, but due to their OS they are slowly diversifying their products into the automobile industry as well... If this OS catches on, things could look really, really good.

[DragonFlyer]

Oh, that's very impressive. We can extrapolate some reasonably well calculated actual numbers from this - which could mean that they have sold over 30,000 Z10 units with Axiom alone in the UAE so far, and maybe as high as 60,000 units. Total UAE sales could range from about 40,000 units to 80,000 units.

Details:

The UAE sells around 2.4 million smartphones per year now.

Axiom claims a 70% market share in the UAE. So 1.68 million smartphones per year = 4600 per day.

60% of that is 2760 per day. Times 11 days = about 30,000 units.

That assumes that the Z10 cannibalized their existing handset sales. If it was incremental to existing sales, the sales could be as much as 60,000 units.

Since Axiom has 70% market share, multiplying these numbers by 1.4 would give an estimate of overall UAE sales assuming similar performance at other retailers.

I have ejoyed reading this info on UAE but I have noticed something that doesn't quite add up.
Kid Vibes coment states: BlackBerry Z10 is accounting for almost 60 per cent of all handset sales across its UAE stores since being available on February 10.
Zarpans coment states: The UAE sells around 2.4 million smartphones per year now.
Handset sales and smartphone sales are two different things.Does this change the numbers?

[Zarpan]

There was a tweet from BlackBerry's Middle East account which said "The new #BlackBerry #Z10 has taken the UAE by storm, accounting for 60% of all smartphone sales according to @axiommiddleeast!".

Figure it was safer to go with the smaller number. The number of handset sales in the UAE is a bit over 4 million per year I think.

I have ejoyed reading this info on UAE but I have noticed something that doesn't quite add up.
Kid Vibes coment states: BlackBerry Z10 is accounting for almost 60 per cent of all handset sales across its UAE stores since being available on February 10.
Zarpans coment states: The UAE sells around 2.4 million smartphones per year now.
Handset sales and smartphone sales are two different things.Does this change the numbers?

[DragonFlyer]

There was a tweet from BlackBerry's Middle East account which said "The new #BlackBerry #Z10 has taken the UAE by storm, accounting for 60% of all smartphone sales according to @axiommiddleeast!".

Figure it was safer to go with the smaller number. The number of handset sales in the UAE is a bit over 4 million per year I think.

" Axiom Telecom, BlackBerry’s official resellers in the UAE, had earlier announced that the new BlackBerry Z10 is accounting for almost 60 per cent of all handset sales across its UAE stores since being available on February 10."
This coment was taken from this artical
Is limited supply hampering BlackBerry Z10 sales in the UAE? - Emirates 24/7

With this bit of confusion I think I am going to take your 80,000 number as being closer to the real number. Thanks again for your input.

[Komoto]

what do you guys think will happen this morning? drop to 13.35 support line and the bounce right back up?

[Charles Martin1]

what do you guys think will happen this morning? drop to 13.35 support line and the bounce right back up?

Don't know...Just know that I officially hate RED.

[OMGitworks]

May be a tough day for the entire US market today. Unemployment and Inflation both up.... BBRY will likely have to fight the market today to be up. Bad timing.... At least Golman seems to be defending BBRY these days

[AlexejKir]

BBRY up in Frankfurt, thats always a good sign.

And up in PM. Could be an interesting day.

[DragonFlyer]

BlackBerry: Raising Goldman's $19 To $20.82 - Seeking Alpha

[slipstream89]

BBRY is up 2% premarket

[bungaboy]

BBRY is up 2% premarket

My gut tells me this is just the pumping up to take the daily profit before the 10-10:30 dump. Hope I am wrong. (as I usually am)

[slipstream89]

wouldn't be surprised, 10:30am and 1:30pm there are usually unusual dips or jumps

[Superfly_FR]

Ok, here we go have a nice session, bring some pop corn, avoid coffee and Coke

(as a reminder for new comers)
Do not invest money you cannot afford to lose 100%.
The main position here is long (2-5+ years).
We are fans and we may have some bias.
Always rely on your research and knowledge before investing, all comments made in this thread
are personal experience testimonies or pedagogic explanation, in no case an advice to invest or to trade.

[Charles Martin1]

Happy thoughts

[AlexejKir]

Wouldnt be worried too much about whats happening now, Frankfurt is 2,5% up.. almost as a rule, if they finish in green, so do we

[Bugmapper]

Wow, nothing subtle about these shorts, is there?

[Komoto]

looks like it hit the 13.35 resistance, where is my pop?

[drummer_god]

there's a Pepsi in the fridge with your name on it...lol

[Tinomane]

What was support again? 13.35?

[Bugmapper]

what do you guys think will happen this morning? drop to 13.35 support line and the bounce right back up?

Hmmm... are you from the future???

[Luke Barrie]

Wow, nothing subtle about these shorts, is there?

nope, I cant beleive we opened up 2%, and then dropped by nearly 4% from there, despite mostly positive (but not groundbreaking) news today. Unfortunately, I would not be surprised to see the bearish pressure applied until EOD tommorrow so that the manipulators can make the most from shorting it, then drive it up insanely next week

[Superfly_FR]

What was support again? 13.35?

Now, if I understood correctly Nostradam8 (lol) ... time for a ride ?

On Thursday, the 5-dma will open up at $ 14.20/shr, the downtrend line is close to $ 14.10/shr, that's our resistance, the support comes in at $ 13.35/shr as mentioned on this board, this is an extreme pullback, and, we should trade within this range and mount another attempt at turning this stock higher here. This revised uptrend line is looking like it might be what the traders need to get us to mid-March. The line is clean and follows the 50-dma perfectly here, either way, it will be resolved this week. Note that the RSI is looking like it has based out just like it did prior to a major run up in the first week of January. All of this still projects us to $ 21.00/shr here, nothing has changed except our nerves! GL.

[Komoto]

guys it wasnt me, i was just going off morgan's chart. The big blue line was 13.35. All credit to him.
Happy as i mentioned to buy in again at 13.40 and 13.84. I am actually surprised to see that, despite the volatility of the stock (which is insane btw), morgan's chart has been very accurate so far.
Obviously the day isn't over yet, but it is looking like the dust has settled. (I hope I haven't spoken too soon!)