[jbbbry601]

I am trying take a guess at how much BB10 sold last quarter by calculating its possible market share times
monthly smartphone sales in each country and came up with 3.1 MM for Z10 and 1.4 MM for Q10
for a total 4.5 MM BB10 sold and EPS will be $0.74. The current street EPS consensus is about a few cents, implying less than 2.5 MM BB10 sold. does it make sense?

I listed my estimates of top 10 Z10 sold by country and correct me if numbers are not making sense.
(1) USA 650K
(2) UK 450K
(3) Canada 360K
(4) Saudi Arabia 420 K
(5) UAE 105K
(6) Indonesia 200K
(7) South Africa 142K
(8) Nigeria 121K
(9) India 97K
(10) Philippines 68K

[kkwsrb]

Could you let me know how did you know the number?

[jbbbry601]

look at average monthly smartphone sales and times market share. For example, US 2013 smartphone sales expected 130MM, I estimated Z10 has about 3% market share which produces about 650K in 2 months.

[Chicago777Guy]

I think your country estimates would be extremely wrong if you took an 3% average, however your total number might be correct...Also it will be very difficult if not impossible to split between legacy and BlackBerry 10

Posted via CB10

[jbbbry601]

Legacy BB7 sales Jan-Mar quarter market share is less than 0.7% in USA. In developed countries except Canada and UK, legacy sales is probably less than 0.5% across the board. Legacy sales are only meaningful in developing countries.

Z10 3% US market share is probably middle/low end of most analysts.

[jbbbry601]

The highest market share of Z10 sales are in Canada and South Africa. I put them around 12%. UK probably 6%. are those numbers too high?

[mikeycollins13]

Here's hoping for 3-4M BB10s combined, not sure about the rest.

[Chicago777Guy]

How did you arrive at the EPS figure?

Posted via CB10

[docgasberry]

Without a meaningful methodology ........ this may as well be a raffle ....

Shall we just all guess ?

[Chicago777Guy]

Please provide details of your analysis? EPS figure? And other numbers...seems interesting

Posted via CB10

[docgasberry]

No methodology here ...pure guesstimate .....I say 6 million.

[jbbbry601]

I looked back several years of BBRY quarterly earnings report and 10K. It was easy to calculate legacy BB revenue per phone as the company publised unit of sales and hardware revenue. In their 10K, service and software gross margin was also published. From there, you can get legacy BB gross margin per phone. Then with last quarter 1 MM BB10 information, it is not difficult to figure out BB10 revenue and gross margin per phone.

Once you get gross margin, subtract R&D and Sales and Marketing costs, you will get net income and then EPS.

[Chicago777Guy]

Can you put the actual numbers? Thanks

Posted via CB10

[w0lfgang]

I rather like the "reverse engineering" concept, but I'm about 75% sure that's not how it is determined.....I don't work on Wall Street, so I could easily be wrong....can someone here give insight into the methodology of analysts (who are ALSO known to be wrong)

[Zarpan]

I rather like the "reverse engineering" concept, but I'm about 75% sure that's not how it is determined.....I don't work on Wall Street, so I could easily be wrong....can someone here give insight into the methodology of analysts (who are ALSO known to be wrong)

I'd say that their methodology is often figure out what number they want to report and then devise a bunch of equations and channel checks to justify that number.

[sakin13]

I'd say that their methodology is often figure out what number they want to report and then devise a bunch of equations and channel checks to justify that number.

So so sooooo true ....

[kfh227]

I was about to post the same thing. No poll? Argghhhh


6.75 million BB10 units.