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- 01-18-13, 09:07 AM #1929
From the Globe & Mail
RIM climbs again
Shares of Research In Motion Ltd. climbed sharply today, by more than 6 per cent, continuing a dramatic run as the launch of the BlackBerry 10 draws nearer and amid an upgrade from a key stock analyst.
The latest bit of juice for RIM is a report from analyst Peter Misek of Jefferies & Co., who boosted his price target on RIM shares to $19.50 (U.S.) from $13, and his recommendation to “buy” from “hold.”
The stock has seen five particularly good days, closing out yesterday in Toronto trading at $14.68 (Canadian) compared to under $12 last Friday.
It’s also a sharp climb from its 52-week low of $6.10, though still below the high of $18.23.
Mr. Misek said, among other things, that RIM will enable corporate e-mail on Apple Inc.’s iPhones and devices powered by the Android system from Google Inc.
“This change we believe is unknown or not well understood but is important,” he said.
He also projected a couple of quarters of earnings that could be “well above” the estimates of other analysts, at the same time noting “guaranteed volumes” from wireless carriers.
“Our checks indicate that the carriers have agreed to volume commitments for the first two quarters post-launch,” Mr. Misek said.
“Our checks indicate that BB10 builds have been raised from 500,000/month in early December to 1 million to 2 million/month,” he added in his report.
“Developers are supporting BB10 more than we expected. RIM is targeting 70,000 apps available at launch.”
His take on the opportunities for investors is interesting. Not only can shareholders win with a “successful software business” related to the iPhone iOS system and Android, also because there’s a huge short interest in RIM shares, and expectations that are too low “could start a squeeze.”
Mr. Misek has a few scenarios, one more fortunate than the others.
In his first scenario, the chance of success for the BB10 has climbed.
“In December our quarterly survey of carriers and retailers … showed that 20 per cent of respondents thought that Blackberry would be the third mobile ecosystem behind iOS and Android,” he said.
“Since December, our checks indicated better-than-expected carrier and develop support. We now think the chance of success has risen closer to 30 per cent.”
The second scenario suggests RIM will have “few strategic options” beyond a sale of the company should the BB10 not succeed.
“Due to the likely 9-24 month investment and integration timeframe before an acquirer could launch BB10 on their own hardware, we think any acquirer will be price sensitive,” he said.
“Additionally, as an unsuccessful BB10 will leave RIM likely burning cash and without a Plan B, we think RIM will have to settle for a lower-than-hoped for acquisition price.”
The third scenario is downright ugly: “BB10 fails, no acquisition, and continued cash burn leads the stock toward $0.”
It’s on the “weighted probability” of his three scenarios that he boosted his target on the stock.
Before today, the latest push for the stock came with RIM’s announcement Wednesday that Visa had approved how it will handle mobile payments.
In the lead-up to the BB10 launch on Jan. 30, not everyone is as keen as Mr. Misek.
BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Tim Long, for example, slashed his price target on the shares to $9 (U.S.) from $12 just a week ago, rating the stock “underperform.”
•Visa signs on to RIM’s secure mobile payment tech
- 01-18-13, 09:21 AM #1930
01-18-13, 09:48 AM #1935
- 870 Posts
Shares of Research In Motion Ltd (RIMM.O)(RIM.TO) rose 4.6 percent on Friday after an influential analyst boosted his rating on the stock, saying RIM's new BlackBerry 10 devices performed as well or better than rivals in recent tests.
Jefferies & Co analyst Peter Misek, who lifted his stock rating on RIM to "buy" from "hold," believes Wall Street was underestimating the strength of RIM's financial performance after the new devices debut on January 30. He also lifted his price target to $19.50 from $13.
The stock jumped 4.6 percent to $15.59 on Friday on the Nasdaq and rose 5.5 percent to C$15.51 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
RIM hopes the re-engineered line of touch-screen and keyboard devices will help win back market share lost to rivals such as Apple Inc's (AAPL.O) iPhone and devices powered by Google Inc's (GOOG.O) market-leading Android operating system.
Misek, who has been skeptical for some time about RIM's odds of engineering a turnaround, said recent trials of BB10 test devices showed vast improvements over its existing smartphones.
"Recent tests and demos have shown a solid browser, smooth touch interface, and intuitive navigation. We now believe the operating system performance could be better than or equal to Android Jelly Bean and likely on par with iOS 6," said Misek, referring to the latest versions of software powering Android and Apple devices.
Shares of RIM, which fell as low as $6.22 in September, have more than doubled in value over the last four months as the BB10 launch approaches.
In November, Misek upgraded RIM's stock to "hold" from "underperform," arguing that his checks revealed greater carrier support for BB10 than expected.
Misek's last upgrade had propelled RIM's shares into double-digit territory for the first time in five months and his latest upgrade pushed the stock to a new 11-month high.
In his latest note, Misek said: "More recent checks indicate that carriers have also agreed to volume commitments for the first two quarters post-launch."
He said BB10 build orders rose from about 500,000 a month in early December to between 1 million and 2 million a month. Misek now views initial sales of 4 million Blackberry 10 devices a quarter as "not a high hurdle."
Additionally, developer support was proving to be stronger than expected, noted Misek.
"Our checks indicate that large app developers are going to put resources into developing BB10 apps," he said. "Previously we had thought they would take more of a wait-and-see approach before committing resources."
(Reporting by Euan Rocha; Editing by Gerald E. McCormick and Jeffrey Benkoe)
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RIM shares rise after upgrade by influential analyst | Reuters
- CrackBerry Abuser
01-18-13, 09:58 AM #1938
- 189 Posts
trying to hold back my excitement, but I woke up and looked into stock 45 minutes into trading. opened my charts and it said $15.62 or $15 something. I thought what funny stock is this that my level 2 is showing, what did i hit, did i enter a wrong key. once i actually got my eyes open enough to look closely it was still RIMM. I love these days! 3000 shares strong! And upgrades to juice it up!
- 01-18-13, 09:59 AM #1939
Even with 420 million shares traded that would still mean that if 100 million covered that would be 25% of those trades. Covering is basically a buy. If that's the case how much do we then say was actual buys or sells. I sold and bought back 5 times during that time and while I only have a few thousand shares, I'm sure I'm not the only person that did that. Lets also remember that anyone covering with such conviction likely is saying that they need to go long. What about those buys?
- CrackBerry Genius
01-18-13, 10:18 AM #1940
- 2,226 Posts
Last edited by OMGitworks; 01-18-13 at 10:29 AM. Reason: typos...duh!
- CrackBerry Genius
01-18-13, 10:22 AM #1941
- 1,680 Posts
● NOTE: RIMM SI 8.4% of free float: MarkItdata
Markit Securities Finance
The Markit Securities Finance offering delivers securities lending data, tracking short selling and institutional fund flow across the global markets. We provide you with the data you require to manage your securities lending programmes, optimise your trading performance and enhance your investment decision making.
- CrackBerry Abuser
01-18-13, 11:09 AM #1947
- 189 Posts
I read somewhere that etrade is updating software to work on new phone. That is another plus in my books, because etrade only supports blackberry on a much older phone. It would be really nice to trade on their new phone with real time streaming. my 9900 isn't cutting it. i remember back when etrade would practically give you a blackberry to trade with.
the stock has been kinda hanging, wonder if it will touch $16 or dip or stay before weekend? it doesn't seem like it wants to kiss $15.90
- CrackBerry Addict
01-18-13, 11:40 AM #1950
- 963 Posts
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