View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?
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- CrackBerry Genius
01-09-13, 02:16 PM #1576
- 2,226 Posts
That's the problem with technical analysis and charts, they look good and proper until they aren't. That chart you posted (superfly) as well as a 60 day RIMM chart and today's action makes $12 look a lot like resistance, rather than a base. Other charts like those posted by Morganplus8 say otherwise. I suspect there is just an absence of buyers today, no reason to buy the stock, but some will want to sell for whatever reason so it trades down on low volume. Hopefully the uptrend line holds. It will be interesting to see if some buyers step in or if it just fades into the close. Either way, one day in RIMM doesn't tell us much so no need to panic or read too much into it, there i s a lot of support at these levels.
- CrackBerry Genius
01-09-13, 02:45 PM #1577
- 2,431 Posts
- CrackBerry Genius
01-09-13, 02:54 PM #1578
- 2,226 Posts
Fair enough, I appreciate all of your charting and work and thoughts you post here. Looks like it might slide into the close at or just slightly below the low for the day and some key areas. Not critical at this very minor violations of the uptrend and MA's, that is for sure and I think you are right that a short term battle is being waged or about to be waged. Still 10 minutes to fight it out. Either way the next few days should be fun to watch.
Looks like $11.49 close, not quite the low for the day. Volume was just 2/3'rds 10 Day average. Very interesting how it is so close to a few technical levels.
Last edited by OMGitworks; 01-09-13 at 03:05 PM. Reason: added clsoing price
- CrackBerry Genius
01-09-13, 08:52 PM #1581
- 1,778 Posts
Move along now, nothing to see here.
I wouldn't expect any solid movements until launch. It might continue to dip as traders who bought in closer to the $6 low take their profits.
If it ends up dropping close to $10 I'll be buying more.
- 01-10-13, 09:03 AM #1584
01-10-13, 05:05 PM #1586
- 870 Posts
I now understand why some people here try to downplay the short interest in RIMM. Surprise surprise just like I have been saying that the selling in RIMM has been FAKE and manipulated. 12/31/2012
137,065,866 shares short up from 12/14/2012
119,621,568 shares short. WOW 137 MILLION SHARES SHORT. WIthout this FAKE selling of shares RIMM would and should be $20+++ .
- 01-10-13, 08:22 PM #1590
But shorts have to cover their shorts at some point. Is there a time limit? I mean, the way RIM is going (good support from carriers, generally positive vibe coming off harshest critics), it seems like RIM stock will rise further. So, isn't it unwise to be 'shorting' knowing that the price is likely to rise (a bit, if not much, still, rise is a rise)? How long do shorts have before they are obligated to cover their shorts?
Also, is it possible to determine (roughly) how many shorts at what price level? I can see 137M shorts today but that's cumilative. Don't know how many shorted at $8, $10, $12, $14, $15
From the graph,
- it looks like there were 100M shorts when price was approximately $8.
- approx 140M shorts when price was approx $12
Now, how many of these 100M shorts (from $8) have already covered these positions?
Basically, I am trying to determine the "price point" at which majority of shorts will neutralize their losses. Say, if they all shorted at $10. Then as soon as the price gets down to $10, the shorts would break even. So, what is the price point that these shorts are waiting for?
Last edited by chrysaurora; 01-10-13 at 08:37 PM.
- CrackBerry Addict
01-10-13, 08:24 PM #1591
- 963 Posts
I know some one tried to answer it earlier but still un-answered. Please see my posts earlier. WHat the heck shorts know that we do not. The short ration should be at lowest level in last 3 years but it has been increasing as we get closer to BB10. Are shorts preventing the stock to move up as they will be hooped..The post er was huge manipulation.
Currently low volumen means shorts are waiting for something that we do not know and big boys staying away from buying as they prob gonna jum as we get closer OR after the launch to see how it does.
- 01-10-13, 08:43 PM #1592
Second of all it really doesn't matter. Just like if you bought a piece of land for $500k and the price dropped to $300k. You trying to resell the land saying that you purchased it for $500k isn't going to help you at all. The market price is $300k, so that is the most you'll get for it.
Simple example. If you know that there are 100,000 shares that currently have a stop loss order of 5%. (Meaning they will sell their stocks if the stock drops 5% below the high) You simply sell enough shares such that you force the price to drop by 5%. But then since people have these stop loss orders, they price might go even further down, in which case now you can buy shares at a lower price. Once again this is an overly simplified example since there is no way you can "know" what other people's orders are, as well as there would be counteractive limit orders, etc. But the fact that the short interest is so high, doesn't mean that they know something we do not. (And with every rule, there is an exception. There are cases where some people do know something, or are speculating on something and they will make a play at it. E.g. Short a stock, buy puts or calls on a stock even though the expiry is coming up. etc)
- 01-10-13, 08:52 PM #1593
There's two camps. People that believe in RIM (Longs) and People that believe that RIM's time has passed and they will never recover (shorts). Historically shorts have been right as RIM as screwed up big time after time, the negative press also helped build the aura of negativity around RIM. A lot of people believe that iPhone is KING and no company can compete. You have to remember that the typical iPhone user sees RIM/Blackberry as an ancient device that will never be able to compete with iPhone.
Here's my observation. When iPhone 5 came out I was watching the keynote and was greatly disappointed with what iPhone 5 was bringing to the table, imagine my surprise when i found out how well it was received and the lines of people waiting to buy it, I was sure iPhone 5 was destined to fail. These people are the same ones shorting RIM stock, completely blind and oblivious to the reality that Apple innovation is over and RIM is coming back with a vengeance. These are the people that watch MSNBC and Jim Cramer's Mad Money who hypes Apple stock and slams RIM stock. These are the same people that have been buying Apple stock since it was at $700 and keep being bullish on it even though it dropped through $600 and now hovering around $500. The same people that scream BUY, BUY when Apple is clearly no longer innovating and will be losing market share to Google, Nokia and RIM. Whenever I see a news story posted regarding Apple, Google or RIM I always make sure to read the comments section to see the sentiment of the people not just the thoughts of the reporter. You'd be surprised to see how many people want RIM to fail. Not just BB10 to fail mind you, they want RIM gone. I frequent StockTwits and follow both RIM, Nokia and Apple comments, every time Apple stock drops I see a lot of people buying large lots because they expect the stock to reverse trend and hit $1000 soon. Fact is, that unless Apple comes out with an iPhone killer of their own, this will never happen.
These are just my thoughts and observations, take them as you will.
- 01-10-13, 11:00 PM #1596
There is no "time" limit. But as the stock rises you are essentially losing more and more money because at some point you have to cover (e.g. buy the stock and give back the shares.) Stockbrokers want to limit their losses and make sure you are able to pay them back in case the stock skyrockets, so if the stock rises above a set threshold, such that if you had to buy back the stock, you would have to use X amount of margin. At that point you are forced to cover, meaning your shorts are automatically covered and they will take it from your margin.
E.g. It might be something like "150% of the market value".
E.g. For this example sake, say your margin is $100.
You short 100 shares at $1. You get $100 deposited to your account right away. So now you have $100 balance and $100 margin.
The stock starts to go up and rises to $2. If you were to cover, you have to spend $200 to buy the stock back. 100 shares at $2.
But if the threshold is 150% of the market value. It means you must have at least $300. (150% of $200). In which case since you only have $100 balance and $100 margin, the broker would have sold your stocks before it even reaches $2. Something closer to $1.3.
Now if you had a balance of say $1,000. Well, then you would only be required to cover if the stock went up to say around $6-$7 ($600-$700 market value).
Hopefully this example made sense and is correct. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
- 01-10-13, 11:33 PM #1598
That's correct. When you max out your margin you have what's call a "Margin Call". In which case you either have to cover by buying back the stock (in which case you're royally screwed) or you need to fund your account to add to your margin if you believe the stock will still go down at some point (in which case you're increasing your risk). The margin exists so that you aren't forced to cover right away if you're the "red" as the price fluctuates.
- CrackBerry Addict
01-11-13, 02:27 AM #1600
- 963 Posts
One thing we need to remember that we RIM longs and fans know quite a bit about bb10, rim and stuff compare to typical Apple consumer and trader do not get into details and follow the RIM as we do. So I tent to agree that apple/Anroid average users and traders still think and belive that RIM is still that old outdated, broken RIM. One of my co-worker who pushed iOS devices to death and introuduced them to my work and thought Apple was like God. I had many arguments about how RIM was great, secure and stuf and she won't buzz. First time ever in last 2 years that she has to admin that she is looking forward to bb10 because she heard noting but positive things on social networks and linkdin. I told her that bb10 is the OS that you never experienced on mobile and will not soon as apple has not even started on newer ios. The browser of bb10 not faster than any mobile device but fastest among all mobile and desktops...that is with standard specs..imagine with hign end bb10
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